NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2025
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 86
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 166 | 70.5% | 63.8% | 58.7% – 68.7% |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 102 | 67.7% | 59.9% | 54.0% – 65.7% |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 163 | 63.2% | 58.9% | 53.8% – 64.0% |
| 4 | George Pickens | DAL | WR | 138 | 63.8% | 58.8% | 53.3% – 64.1% |
| 5 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | 71.7% | 58.1% | 51.0% – 65.1% |
| 6 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | NE | WR | 65 | 63.1% | 56.1% | 49.4% – 62.7% |
| 7 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | 64.1% | 55.9% | 48.9% – 62.7% |
| 8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 45 | 64.4% | 55.5% | 48.3% – 62.5% |
| 9 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | 110 | 59.1% | 55.5% | 49.6% – 61.2% |
| 10 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 60 | 61.7% | 55.3% | 48.5% – 62.0% |
| 11 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | 62.3% | 55.2% | 48.2% – 62.0% |
| 12 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 55 | 61.8% | 55.1% | 48.2% – 61.9% |
| 13 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 30 | 66.7% | 54.9% | 47.3% – 62.4% |
| 14 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 45 | 62.2% | 54.7% | 47.5% – 61.8% |
| 15 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | 65.5% | 54.5% | 46.9% – 62.1% |
| 16 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 119 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 48.7% – 60.2% |
| 17 | Xavier Smith◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | 66.7% | 54.3% | 46.4% – 62.0% |
| 18 | Gunner Olszewski◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 13 | 76.9% | 54.2% | 46.0% – 62.4% |
| 19 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | 59.6% | 54.1% | 47.1% – 61.0% |
| 20 | Tre Harris◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 43 | 60.5% | 54.0% | 46.8% – 61.2% |
| 21 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | 57.8% | 53.9% | 47.4% – 60.4% |
| 22 | Luther Burden III◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 60 | 58.3% | 53.9% | 47.1% – 60.6% |
| 23 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 62 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 47.1% – 60.5% |
| 24 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | 60.0% | 53.7% | 46.4% – 61.0% |
| 25 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 53.6% | 45.5% – 61.7% |
| 26 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 100 | 56.0% | 53.6% | 47.6% – 59.6% |
| 27 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 102 | 55.9% | 53.5% | 47.6% – 59.5% |
| 28 | Brycen Tremayne◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 53.5% | 45.5% – 61.5% |
| 29 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 114 | 55.3% | 53.3% | 47.5% – 59.1% |
| 30 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 86 | 55.8% | 53.3% | 47.0% – 59.5% |
| 31 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 56 | 57.1% | 53.3% | 46.4% – 60.1% |
| 32 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 53.1% | 45.0% – 61.3% |
| 33 | Pat Bryant◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 49 | 57.1% | 53.1% | 46.0% – 60.1% |
| 34 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 117 | 54.7% | 53.0% | 47.3% – 58.8% |
| 35 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 74 | 55.4% | 52.9% | 46.4% – 59.4% |
| 36 | Marvin Harrison Jr.◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 74 | 55.4% | 52.9% | 46.4% – 59.4% |
| 37 | Tyrell Shavers◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 52.9% | 45.1% – 60.7% |
| 38 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 99 | 54.5% | 52.8% | 46.8% – 58.8% |
| 39 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 46 | 56.5% | 52.8% | 45.6% – 59.9% |
| 40 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | 56.5% | 52.8% | 45.6% – 59.9% |
| 41 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 122 | 54.1% | 52.7% | 47.0% – 58.4% |
| 42 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 113 | 54.0% | 52.6% | 46.8% – 58.4% |
| 43 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 172 | 53.5% | 52.6% | 47.5% – 57.7% |
| 44 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | 61.1% | 52.6% | 44.5% – 60.6% |
| 45 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS | WR | 100 | 54.0% | 52.5% | 46.5% – 58.5% |
| 46 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 125 | 53.6% | 52.5% | 46.8% – 58.1% |
| 47 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 114 | 53.5% | 52.3% | 46.5% – 58.1% |
| 48 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 185 | 53.0% | 52.3% | 47.3% – 57.3% |
| 49 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 57 | 54.4% | 52.2% | 45.4% – 59.1% |
| 50 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 52.2% | 44.8% – 59.6% |
| 51 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 52.2% | 44.8% – 59.6% |
| 52 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 84 | 53.6% | 52.2% | 45.9% – 58.4% |
| 53 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 121 | 52.9% | 52.0% | 46.3% – 57.7% |
| 54 | Isaac TeSlaa◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | 55.6% | 51.9% | 44.2% – 59.6% |
| 55 | Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 97 | 52.6% | 51.7% | 45.7% – 57.8% |
| 56 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 18 | 55.6% | 51.6% | 43.6% – 59.6% |
| 57 | Tory Horton◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | 54.5% | 51.6% | 43.7% – 59.4% |
| 58 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 51.5% | 43.7% – 59.3% |
| 59 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 36 | 52.8% | 51.4% | 44.0% – 58.8% |
| 60 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 38 | 52.6% | 51.3% | 44.0% – 58.7% |
| 61 | Davante Adams | LA | WR | 114 | 51.7% | 51.3% | 45.5% – 57.1% |
| 62 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 79 | 51.9% | 51.3% | 44.9% – 57.7% |
| 63 | Matthew Golden◦ provisional | GB | WR | 44 | 52.3% | 51.3% | 44.1% – 58.5% |
| 64 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 54 | 51.8% | 51.2% | 44.3% – 58.1% |
| 65 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 52.2% | 51.1% | 43.2% – 58.9% |
| 66 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 51.1% | 43.3% – 58.8% |
| 67 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 65 | 50.8% | 50.8% | 44.1% – 57.5% |
| 68 | Jayden Higgins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 69 | 50.7% | 50.8% | 44.2% – 57.3% |
| 69 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 99 | 50.5% | 50.6% | 44.6% – 56.7% |
| 70 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 22 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 42.7% – 58.5% |
| 71 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 127 | 50.4% | 50.5% | 44.9% – 56.2% |
| 72 | Tez Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 44 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 43.3% – 57.7% |
| 73 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 52 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 43.5% – 57.5% |
| 74 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 43.6% – 57.3% |
| 75 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | 88 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 44.2% – 56.6% |
| 76 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 122 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 44.6% – 56.0% |
| 77 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 156 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 45.0% – 55.6% |
| 78 | Jimmy Horn Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 50.2% | 42.0% – 58.3% |
| 79 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 50.2% | 42.4% – 57.9% |
| 80 | Jack Bech◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | 48.3% | 50.2% | 42.5% – 57.8% |
| 81 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | KC | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 50.1% | 42.8% – 57.5% |
| 82 | Jaylin Noel◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 35 | 48.6% | 50.1% | 42.7% – 57.6% |
| 83 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | 48.7% | 50.1% | 42.8% – 57.5% |
| 84 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 142 | 49.3% | 49.9% | 44.4% – 55.3% |
| 85 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 106 | 49.1% | 49.8% | 43.9% – 55.8% |
| 86 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.7% | 41.8% – 57.6% |
| 87 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 20 | 45.0% | 49.7% | 41.8% – 57.7% |
| 88 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.7% | 41.8% – 57.6% |
| 89 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 49.7% | 41.7% – 57.7% |
| 90 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 49.7% | 41.5% – 57.9% |
| 91 | Casey Washington◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 49.7% | 41.5% – 57.9% |
| 92 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 121 | 48.8% | 49.6% | 43.9% – 55.3% |
| 93 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 93 | 48.4% | 49.5% | 43.4% – 55.7% |
| 94 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | 91 | 48.4% | 49.5% | 43.4% – 55.7% |
| 95 | Jordan Addison◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 79 | 48.1% | 49.5% | 43.1% – 55.9% |
| 96 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | 46.2% | 49.3% | 42.0% – 56.7% |
| 97 | Malik Nabers◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 35 | 45.7% | 49.3% | 41.9% – 56.8% |
| 98 | Kyle Williams◦ provisional | NE | WR | 21 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 41.3% – 57.2% |
| 99 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 49.2% | 41.2% – 57.2% |
| 100 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 17 | 41.2% | 49.2% | 41.1% – 57.3% |
| 101 | Jamari Thrash◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 41.0% – 57.4% |
| 102 | Gage Larvadain◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 41.0% – 57.4% |
| 103 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | 46.8% | 49.1% | 42.4% – 55.9% |
| 104 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 54 | 46.3% | 49.1% | 42.1% – 56.0% |
| 105 | Isaiah Williams◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 36 | 44.4% | 48.9% | 41.5% – 56.4% |
| 106 | Xavier Worthy◦ provisional | KC | WR | 73 | 46.6% | 48.9% | 42.4% – 55.4% |
| 107 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 38.9% | 48.7% | 40.7% – 56.8% |
| 108 | Malachi Corley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 48.7% | 40.5% – 56.9% |
| 109 | James Proche◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 40.4% – 56.9% |
| 110 | Dylan Drummond◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 40.4% – 56.9% |
| 111 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 40.4% – 56.9% |
| 112 | Travis Hunter◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 45 | 44.4% | 48.6% | 41.5% – 55.8% |
| 113 | Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 107 | 46.7% | 48.5% | 42.6% – 54.4% |
| 114 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 37 | 43.2% | 48.5% | 41.1% – 55.9% |
| 115 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | 42.9% | 48.5% | 41.1% – 56.0% |
| 116 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 29 | 41.4% | 48.4% | 40.8% – 56.1% |
| 117 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 91 | 46.2% | 48.4% | 42.3% – 54.6% |
| 118 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | 45.9% | 48.4% | 42.1% – 54.6% |
| 119 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 48 | 43.8% | 48.3% | 41.2% – 55.4% |
| 120 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 15 | 33.3% | 48.2% | 40.1% – 56.4% |
| 121 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 15 | 33.3% | 48.2% | 40.1% – 56.4% |
| 122 | Xavier Weaver◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 48.2% | 40.0% – 56.4% |
| 123 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 92 | 45.6% | 48.1% | 42.0% – 54.3% |
| 124 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 36 | 41.7% | 48.1% | 40.7% – 55.5% |
| 125 | David Sills◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 36 | 41.7% | 48.1% | 40.7% – 55.5% |
| 126 | Jaylin Lane◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 32 | 40.6% | 48.0% | 40.5% – 55.6% |
| 127 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 55 | 43.6% | 48.0% | 41.1% – 54.9% |
| 128 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | 38.5% | 47.9% | 40.2% – 55.7% |
| 129 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 66 | 43.9% | 47.8% | 41.2% – 54.5% |
| 130 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 39 | 41.0% | 47.7% | 40.4% – 55.1% |
| 131 | Arian Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 16 | 31.3% | 47.7% | 39.6% – 55.9% |
| 132 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | 40.5% | 47.7% | 40.4% – 55.1% |
| 133 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 47.7% | 39.5% – 55.9% |
| 134 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | 39.4% | 47.6% | 40.2% – 55.2% |
| 135 | Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 92 | 44.6% | 47.6% | 41.4% – 53.7% |
| 136 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 84 | 44.0% | 47.5% | 41.2% – 53.8% |
| 137 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 141 | 45.4% | 47.4% | 42.0% – 52.9% |
| 138 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 47.4% | 39.6% – 55.3% |
| 139 | Konata Mumpfield◦ provisional | LA | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 47.4% | 39.6% – 55.3% |
| 140 | Roman Wilson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 21 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 39.5% – 55.3% |
| 141 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 17 | 29.4% | 47.3% | 39.2% – 55.4% |
| 142 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 51 | 41.2% | 47.2% | 40.2% – 54.2% |
| 143 | Mitchell Tinsley◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 24 | 33.3% | 47.0% | 39.2% – 54.8% |
| 144 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | LV | WR | 56 | 41.1% | 47.0% | 40.1% – 53.8% |
| 145 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 97 | 43.3% | 46.8% | 40.8% – 52.9% |
| 146 | Chimere Dike◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 74 | 41.9% | 46.7% | 40.2% – 53.2% |
| 147 | Garrett Wilson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 60 | 40.0% | 46.4% | 39.6% – 53.1% |
| 148 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 65 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 39.5% – 52.8% |
| 149 | Xavier Legette◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 64 | 39.1% | 45.8% | 39.1% – 52.5% |
| 150 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 36 | 33.3% | 45.6% | 38.3% – 53.1% |
| 151 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 128 | 42.2% | 45.6% | 40.1% – 51.3% |
| 152 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN | WR | 89 | 40.5% | 45.5% | 39.4% – 51.7% |
| 153 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.◦ provisional | LV | WR | 30 | 30.0% | 45.4% | 37.9% – 53.0% |
| 154 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 72 | 37.5% | 44.7% | 38.3% – 51.3% |
| 155 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 53 | 34.0% | 44.4% | 37.5% – 51.3% |
| 156 | Isaiah Bond◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | 31.8% | 44.4% | 37.3% – 51.6% |
| 157 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 74 | 35.1% | 43.5% | 37.2% – 50.0% |
| 158 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 106 | 35.9% | 42.5% | 36.7% – 48.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).