NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2025
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 160
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 166 | +0.70 | +0.47 | +0.32 – +0.62 |
| 2 | George Pickens◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 138 | +0.64 | +0.42 | +0.26 – +0.58 |
| 3 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | NE | WR | 102 | +0.69 | +0.41 | +0.24 – +0.58 |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 163 | +0.56 | +0.39 | +0.24 – +0.55 |
| 5 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 84 | +0.66 | +0.38 | +0.20 – +0.55 |
| 6 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | +0.80 | +0.36 | +0.17 – +0.55 |
| 7 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 102 | +0.55 | +0.35 | +0.19 – +0.52 |
| 8 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 114 | +0.48 | +0.33 | +0.17 – +0.50 |
| 9 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 55 | +0.59 | +0.32 | +0.13 – +0.51 |
| 10 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | KC | WR | 37 | +0.71 | +0.32 | +0.12 – +0.51 |
| 11 | Xavier Smith◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | +0.91 | +0.32 | +0.12 – +0.52 |
| 12 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | +0.61 | +0.31 | +0.12 – +0.51 |
| 13 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 60 | +0.53 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.50 |
| 14 | Luther Burden III◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 60 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.49 |
| 15 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 56 | +0.51 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.49 |
| 16 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | +0.68 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 17 | Zay Flowers◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 119 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.13 – +0.46 |
| 18 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.11 – +0.49 |
| 19 | Isaac TeSlaa◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | +0.66 | +0.29 | +0.09 – +0.49 |
| 20 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 86 | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.12 – +0.46 |
| 21 | Marvin Harrison Jr.◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 74 | +0.42 | +0.29 | +0.11 – +0.47 |
| 22 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 125 | +0.36 | +0.29 | +0.13 – +0.45 |
| 23 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 45 | +0.49 | +0.29 | +0.09 – +0.48 |
| 24 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | NE | WR | 65 | +0.42 | +0.28 | +0.10 – +0.47 |
| 25 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 15 | +0.83 | +0.28 | +0.07 – +0.49 |
| 26 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 99 | +0.36 | +0.28 | +0.11 – +0.45 |
| 27 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 172 | +0.32 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.43 |
| 28 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 100 | +0.34 | +0.27 | +0.10 – +0.44 |
| 29 | Gunner Olszewski◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 13 | +0.82 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.48 |
| 30 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 30 | +0.51 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 31 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 121 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.11 – +0.43 |
| 32 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 38 | +0.44 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.46 |
| 33 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 36 | +0.45 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 34 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | +0.39 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.46 |
| 35 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 99 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.10 – +0.44 |
| 36 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 37 | Tyrell Shavers◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 38 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | +0.42 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 39 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 40 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 22 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 41 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | +0.57 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 42 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 16 | +0.59 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 43 | Matthew Golden◦ provisional | GB | WR | 44 | +0.38 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.45 |
| 44 | Jaylin Noel◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 35 | +0.41 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 45 | Tez Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 44 | +0.37 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.45 |
| 46 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 97 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.09 – +0.43 |
| 47 | Tory Horton◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | +0.47 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.46 |
| 48 | Kyle Williams◦ provisional | NE | WR | 21 | +0.47 | +0.26 | +0.05 – +0.46 |
| 49 | Tre Harris◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 43 | +0.36 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.45 |
| 50 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 122 | +0.29 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.42 |
| 51 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 74 | +0.30 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.43 |
| 52 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 121 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.41 |
| 53 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 36 | +0.34 | +0.25 | +0.05 – +0.45 |
| 54 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 84 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.42 |
| 55 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 46 | +0.31 | +0.25 | +0.06 – +0.44 |
| 56 | Brycen Tremayne◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 18 | +0.40 | +0.25 | +0.04 – +0.45 |
| 57 | Pat Bryant◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 49 | +0.29 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.43 |
| 58 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 65 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.06 – +0.43 |
| 59 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.43 |
| 60 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 25 | +0.32 | +0.24 | +0.04 – +0.44 |
| 61 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 18 | +0.31 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 62 | CeeDee Lamb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 117 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.07 – +0.40 |
| 63 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | +0.29 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 64 | Jayden Higgins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 69 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.05 – +0.41 |
| 65 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | LA | WR | 114 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.07 – +0.40 |
| 66 | Casey Washington◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 14 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 67 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 92 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.40 |
| 68 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.43 |
| 69 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.43 |
| 70 | Jimmy Horn Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.44 |
| 71 | Rome Odunze◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 91 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.40 |
| 72 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 156 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 73 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 57 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 74 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 185 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.37 |
| 75 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 36 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.42 |
| 76 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 15 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 77 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 54 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 78 | Drake London◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 113 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.39 |
| 79 | Roman Wilson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 21 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 80 | James Proche◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.01 – +0.43 |
| 81 | Jamari Thrash◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | +0.16 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 82 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 83 | Xavier Worthy◦ provisional | KC | WR | 73 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 84 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 62 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 85 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 37 | +0.18 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.42 |
| 86 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 79 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 87 | Tetairoa McMillan◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 122 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +0.06 – +0.38 |
| 88 | Xavier Weaver◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.01 – +0.43 |
| 89 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 127 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.06 – +0.38 |
| 90 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 39 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 91 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 114 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.05 – +0.38 |
| 92 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 52 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.40 |
| 93 | Brian Thomas Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 91 | +0.19 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.39 |
| 94 | Mitchell Tinsley◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 24 | +0.11 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.42 |
| 95 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 96 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 97 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 25 | +0.10 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.41 |
| 98 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | +0.13 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 99 | Jordan Addison◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 79 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.39 |
| 100 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 20 | +0.06 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.41 |
| 101 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 100 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.38 |
| 102 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | +0.16 | +0.21 | +0.03 – +0.38 |
| 103 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 14 | -0.08 | +0.20 | -0.00 – +0.41 |
| 104 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 – +0.40 |
| 105 | Malik Nabers◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 35 | +0.07 | +0.20 | +0.00 – +0.40 |
| 106 | Isaiah Williams◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 36 | +0.03 | +0.19 | -0.00 – +0.39 |
| 107 | Malachi Corley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 14 | -0.23 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.40 |
| 108 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | +0.11 | +0.19 | +0.01 – +0.37 |
| 109 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 45 | +0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 – +0.38 |
| 110 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 51 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 – +0.38 |
| 111 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | +0.08 | +0.19 | +0.01 – +0.37 |
| 112 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 22 | -0.11 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 113 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | -0.08 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 114 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 141 | +0.14 | +0.19 | +0.03 – +0.34 |
| 115 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 17 | -0.23 | +0.19 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 116 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | -0.41 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 117 | Jack Bech◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | -0.07 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.38 |
| 118 | Josh Downs◦ provisional | IND | WR | 88 | +0.10 | +0.18 | +0.01 – +0.36 |
| 119 | Gage Larvadain◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | -0.32 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 120 | David Sills◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 36 | -0.05 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 121 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 29 | -0.10 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.38 |
| 122 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | -0.04 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 123 | Isaiah Bond◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | -0.02 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 124 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | -0.06 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 125 | Troy Franklin◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 107 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.01 – +0.34 |
| 126 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 72 | +0.05 | +0.17 | -0.01 – +0.35 |
| 127 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 110 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.01 – +0.34 |
| 128 | Arian Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 16 | -0.40 | +0.17 | -0.03 – +0.38 |
| 129 | Dylan Drummond◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | -0.59 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.38 |
| 130 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 97 | +0.08 | +0.17 | +0.00 – +0.34 |
| 131 | Travis Hunter◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 45 | -0.05 | +0.17 | -0.02 – +0.36 |
| 132 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 48 | -0.05 | +0.17 | -0.02 – +0.35 |
| 133 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 17 | -0.44 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.37 |
| 134 | Ladd McConkey◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 106 | +0.07 | +0.17 | -0.00 – +0.33 |
| 135 | Chimere Dike◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 74 | +0.02 | +0.16 | -0.02 – +0.34 |
| 136 | Jaylin Lane◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 32 | -0.18 | +0.16 | -0.04 – +0.36 |
| 137 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 14 | -0.65 | +0.16 | -0.05 – +0.37 |
| 138 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 54 | -0.05 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.35 |
| 139 | Garrett Wilson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 60 | -0.03 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.34 |
| 140 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 15 | -0.63 | +0.16 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 141 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | -0.40 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 142 | Konata Mumpfield◦ provisional | LA | WR | 23 | -0.38 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.35 |
| 143 | Emeka Egbuka◦ provisional | TB | WR | 128 | +0.06 | +0.15 | -0.01 – +0.31 |
| 144 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | -0.54 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 145 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 55 | -0.08 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.34 |
| 146 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 66 | -0.06 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.33 |
| 147 | Xavier Legette◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 64 | -0.06 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.33 |
| 148 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 93 | -0.02 | +0.14 | -0.04 – +0.31 |
| 149 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | LV | WR | 56 | -0.15 | +0.13 | -0.06 – +0.32 |
| 150 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.◦ provisional | LV | WR | 30 | -0.40 | +0.13 | -0.07 – +0.33 |
| 151 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 92 | -0.05 | +0.13 | -0.04 – +0.30 |
| 152 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 65 | -0.15 | +0.12 | -0.06 – +0.30 |
| 153 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 36 | -0.42 | +0.11 | -0.09 – +0.31 |
| 154 | Elic Ayomanor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 89 | -0.11 | +0.11 | -0.06 – +0.28 |
| 155 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 74 | -0.22 | +0.09 | -0.09 – +0.27 |
| 156 | Justin Jefferson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 142 | -0.10 | +0.08 | -0.08 – +0.23 |
| 157 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 53 | -0.40 | +0.07 | -0.11 – +0.26 |
| 158 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 106 | -0.30 | +0.02 | -0.15 – +0.18 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).