NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2025
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 59
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 102 | 83.3% | 75.5% | 69.7% – 80.8% |
| 2 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 166 | 77.7% | 73.6% | 68.6% – 78.3% |
| 3 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | 87.9% | 71.2% | 63.2% – 78.7% |
| 4 | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | 60 | 78.3% | 70.2% | 63.1% – 76.8% |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 163 | 73.0% | 70.0% | 64.9% – 75.0% |
| 6 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 97 | 74.2% | 69.6% | 63.4% – 75.4% |
| 7 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 119 | 72.3% | 68.8% | 63.0% – 74.4% |
| 8 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 22 | 86.4% | 68.5% | 59.8% – 76.7% |
| 9 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS | WR | 100 | 72.0% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 10 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 30 | 80.0% | 68.0% | 59.7% – 75.8% |
| 11 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 114 | 70.2% | 67.3% | 61.4% – 73.1% |
| 12 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 45 | 73.3% | 66.8% | 59.1% – 74.2% |
| 13 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 45 | 73.3% | 66.8% | 59.1% – 74.2% |
| 14 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 54 | 72.2% | 66.8% | 59.4% – 73.9% |
| 15 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 51 | 72.5% | 66.8% | 59.3% – 74.0% |
| 16 | Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 65 | 70.8% | 66.5% | 59.5% – 73.3% |
| 17 | Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 65 | 70.8% | 66.5% | 59.5% – 73.3% |
| 18 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 56 | 71.4% | 66.5% | 59.2% – 73.6% |
| 19 | Jaylin Noel◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 35 | 74.3% | 66.5% | 58.3% – 74.3% |
| 20 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 172 | 68.0% | 66.5% | 61.3% – 71.5% |
| 21 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | 71.7% | 66.2% | 58.5% – 73.6% |
| 22 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 185 | 67.6% | 66.2% | 61.2% – 71.1% |
| 23 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | 110 | 68.2% | 66.0% | 59.9% – 71.9% |
| 24 | Isaiah Williams◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 36 | 72.2% | 65.8% | 57.6% – 73.6% |
| 25 | George Pickens | DAL | WR | 138 | 67.4% | 65.7% | 60.1% – 71.2% |
| 26 | Xavier Smith◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | 75.0% | 65.7% | 57.0% – 74.0% |
| 27 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | 69.8% | 65.6% | 58.1% – 72.8% |
| 28 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 114 | 67.5% | 65.6% | 59.6% – 71.4% |
| 29 | Brycen Tremayne◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 18 | 77.8% | 65.6% | 56.5% – 74.2% |
| 30 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 15 | 80.0% | 65.6% | 56.3% – 74.3% |
| 31 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | 72.4% | 65.4% | 56.9% – 73.5% |
| 32 | Tre Harris◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 43 | 69.8% | 65.2% | 57.3% – 72.8% |
| 33 | Malachi Corley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 14 | 78.6% | 65.1% | 55.7% – 74.0% |
| 34 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 48 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 57.3% – 72.4% |
| 35 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 122 | 66.4% | 64.9% | 59.0% – 70.7% |
| 36 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 25 | 72.0% | 64.9% | 56.2% – 73.2% |
| 37 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 79 | 67.1% | 64.9% | 58.1% – 71.4% |
| 38 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | 67.9% | 64.8% | 57.2% – 72.0% |
| 39 | Gunner Olszewski◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 13 | 76.9% | 64.6% | 55.2% – 73.6% |
| 40 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 38 | 68.4% | 64.5% | 56.3% – 72.2% |
| 41 | Marquise Brown | KC | WR | 74 | 66.2% | 64.3% | 57.4% – 71.0% |
| 42 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | 67.4% | 64.3% | 56.5% – 71.8% |
| 43 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | 88 | 65.9% | 64.3% | 57.7% – 70.7% |
| 44 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 141 | 65.3% | 64.3% | 58.6% – 69.7% |
| 45 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 71 | 66.2% | 64.2% | 57.2% – 71.0% |
| 46 | Jack Bech◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | 69.0% | 64.2% | 55.7% – 72.4% |
| 47 | Jimmy Horn Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | 73.3% | 64.2% | 54.9% – 73.1% |
| 48 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 36 | 66.7% | 63.7% | 55.5% – 71.6% |
| 49 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 121 | 64.5% | 63.6% | 57.6% – 69.4% |
| 50 | Matthew Golden◦ provisional | GB | WR | 44 | 65.9% | 63.6% | 55.7% – 71.2% |
| 51 | Chimere Dike | TEN | WR | 74 | 64.9% | 63.5% | 56.6% – 70.3% |
| 52 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 156 | 64.1% | 63.5% | 58.0% – 68.8% |
| 53 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 117 | 64.1% | 63.4% | 57.3% – 69.2% |
| 54 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 46 | 65.2% | 63.3% | 55.5% – 70.9% |
| 55 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 63.3% | 54.1% – 72.2% |
| 56 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 92 | 64.1% | 63.3% | 56.7% – 69.6% |
| 57 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 100 | 64.0% | 63.2% | 56.9% – 69.4% |
| 58 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 86 | 63.9% | 63.1% | 56.4% – 69.6% |
| 59 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 102 | 63.7% | 63.0% | 56.7% – 69.2% |
| 60 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 63.0% | 53.8% – 71.8% |
| 61 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 63.0% | 53.8% – 71.8% |
| 62 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 63.0% | 53.8% – 71.8% |
| 63 | Jamari Thrash◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 62.9% | 53.5% – 71.8% |
| 64 | Tyrell Shavers◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 62.8% | 53.9% – 71.4% |
| 65 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 55 | 63.6% | 62.7% | 55.2% – 70.0% |
| 66 | Tez Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 44 | 63.6% | 62.6% | 54.7% – 70.3% |
| 67 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | 63.5% | 62.6% | 55.0% – 70.0% |
| 68 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 60 | 63.3% | 62.6% | 55.2% – 69.8% |
| 69 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 62.5% | 53.3% – 71.4% |
| 70 | Pat Bryant◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 49 | 63.3% | 62.5% | 54.8% – 70.0% |
| 71 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 62.4% | 52.9% – 71.4% |
| 72 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | 62.5% | 62.1% | 54.0% – 70.0% |
| 73 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 106 | 62.3% | 62.1% | 55.9% – 68.2% |
| 74 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 62.1% | 53.2% – 70.6% |
| 75 | Travis Hunter◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 45 | 62.2% | 62.0% | 54.1% – 69.7% |
| 76 | Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 92 | 62.0% | 61.9% | 55.4% – 68.3% |
| 77 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 57 | 61.4% | 61.7% | 54.1% – 68.9% |
| 78 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 36 | 61.1% | 61.6% | 53.3% – 69.6% |
| 79 | Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 62 | 61.3% | 61.6% | 54.2% – 68.7% |
| 80 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 127 | 61.4% | 61.6% | 55.6% – 67.3% |
| 81 | Dylan Drummond◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 61.3% | 51.7% – 70.5% |
| 82 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 84 | 60.7% | 61.2% | 54.4% – 67.8% |
| 83 | Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 107 | 60.8% | 61.2% | 54.9% – 67.3% |
| 84 | Tory Horton◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 61.1% | 52.1% – 69.8% |
| 85 | Isaac TeSlaa◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 61.1% | 52.3% – 69.5% |
| 86 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 37 | 59.5% | 61.0% | 52.7% – 69.0% |
| 87 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 60 | 60.0% | 60.9% | 53.5% – 68.2% |
| 88 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 113 | 60.2% | 60.8% | 54.6% – 66.8% |
| 89 | Roman Wilson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 60.7% | 51.6% – 69.4% |
| 90 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 60.6% | 51.8% – 69.1% |
| 91 | Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 97 | 59.8% | 60.6% | 54.1% – 66.9% |
| 92 | Jayden Higgins | HOU | WR | 69 | 59.4% | 60.6% | 53.4% – 67.5% |
| 93 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 99 | 59.6% | 60.5% | 54.0% – 66.8% |
| 94 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 99 | 59.6% | 60.5% | 54.0% – 66.8% |
| 95 | Xavier Weaver◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 60.4% | 50.9% – 69.7% |
| 96 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 55.6% | 60.4% | 51.1% – 69.4% |
| 97 | Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | WR | 66 | 59.1% | 60.4% | 53.1% – 67.5% |
| 98 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 60.4% | 51.4% – 69.1% |
| 99 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 93 | 59.1% | 60.2% | 53.6% – 66.6% |
| 100 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 20 | 55.0% | 60.2% | 51.0% – 69.0% |
| 101 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 85 | 58.8% | 60.1% | 53.3% – 66.7% |
| 102 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 125 | 59.2% | 60.1% | 54.1% – 65.9% |
| 103 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 142 | 59.2% | 60.0% | 54.2% – 65.6% |
| 104 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 59.9% | 50.5% – 68.9% |
| 105 | James Proche◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 59.9% | 50.2% – 69.2% |
| 106 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 121 | 58.7% | 59.7% | 53.7% – 65.7% |
| 107 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | 56.4% | 59.7% | 51.5% – 67.7% |
| 108 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 52.6% | 59.6% | 50.4% – 68.6% |
| 109 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | LV | WR | 56 | 57.1% | 59.6% | 52.0% – 67.0% |
| 110 | Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 73 | 57.5% | 59.5% | 52.4% – 66.4% |
| 111 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | 56.9% | 59.4% | 51.9% – 66.8% |
| 112 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 59.3% | 52.0% – 66.4% |
| 113 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 55 | 56.4% | 59.2% | 51.6% – 66.7% |
| 114 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 52 | 55.8% | 59.0% | 51.3% – 66.6% |
| 115 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 59.0% | 50.0% – 67.6% |
| 116 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | 54.0% | 58.9% | 50.5% – 67.0% |
| 117 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 122 | 57.4% | 58.9% | 52.8% – 64.8% |
| 118 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 58.8% | 49.3% – 68.0% |
| 119 | Gage Larvadain◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 58.8% | 49.3% – 68.0% |
| 120 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 39 | 53.8% | 58.7% | 50.4% – 66.7% |
| 121 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 22 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 49.6% – 67.5% |
| 122 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | 41.7% | 58.5% | 48.8% – 67.9% |
| 123 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | 52.8% | 58.4% | 50.1% – 66.6% |
| 124 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 84 | 56.0% | 58.4% | 51.6% – 65.1% |
| 125 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 74 | 55.4% | 58.3% | 51.2% – 65.2% |
| 126 | Casey Washington◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 58.3% | 48.7% – 67.5% |
| 127 | Xavier Legette | CAR | WR | 64 | 54.7% | 58.1% | 50.8% – 65.4% |
| 128 | Kyle Williams◦ provisional | NE | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 58.1% | 49.0% – 67.0% |
| 129 | Arian Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 16 | 43.8% | 58.0% | 48.6% – 67.2% |
| 130 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | 51.4% | 58.0% | 49.6% – 66.2% |
| 131 | Malik Nabers◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 35 | 51.4% | 58.0% | 49.6% – 66.2% |
| 132 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 54 | 53.7% | 58.0% | 50.3% – 65.5% |
| 133 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 58.0% | 48.9% – 66.8% |
| 134 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | KC | WR | 37 | 51.3% | 57.8% | 49.5% – 66.0% |
| 135 | Jaylin Lane◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 32 | 50.0% | 57.7% | 49.1% – 66.1% |
| 136 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 53 | 52.8% | 57.6% | 49.9% – 65.2% |
| 137 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 15 | 40.0% | 57.5% | 47.9% – 66.7% |
| 138 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 57.4% | 48.3% – 66.3% |
| 139 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 29 | 48.3% | 57.4% | 48.7% – 65.9% |
| 140 | David Sills◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 36 | 50.0% | 57.4% | 49.0% – 65.6% |
| 141 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 36 | 50.0% | 57.4% | 49.0% – 65.6% |
| 142 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 79 | 53.2% | 56.9% | 49.9% – 63.7% |
| 143 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 56.9% | 47.3% – 66.2% |
| 144 | Konata Mumpfield◦ provisional | LA | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 56.7% | 47.7% – 65.6% |
| 145 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | 48.7% | 56.6% | 48.4% – 64.8% |
| 146 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | 91 | 52.8% | 56.4% | 49.7% – 62.9% |
| 147 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 36 | 47.2% | 56.3% | 47.9% – 64.6% |
| 148 | Davante Adams | LA | WR | 114 | 52.6% | 55.8% | 49.6% – 62.0% |
| 149 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 62 | 48.4% | 55.0% | 47.5% – 62.3% |
| 150 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 91 | 48.4% | 53.7% | 47.0% – 60.3% |
| 151 | Mitchell Tinsley◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 24 | 33.3% | 53.6% | 44.6% – 62.5% |
| 152 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 128 | 49.2% | 53.2% | 47.2% – 59.2% |
| 153 | Isaiah Bond◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | 40.9% | 52.9% | 44.9% – 61.0% |
| 154 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 106 | 47.2% | 52.4% | 46.0% – 58.8% |
| 155 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN | WR | 89 | 46.1% | 52.4% | 45.6% – 59.1% |
| 156 | Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 72 | 44.4% | 52.3% | 45.1% – 59.4% |
| 157 | Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | WR | 74 | 44.6% | 52.3% | 45.1% – 59.4% |
| 158 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.◦ provisional | LV | WR | 30 | 33.3% | 52.3% | 43.6% – 60.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).