NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2024
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 94
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 141 | 68.1% | 61.1% | 55.8% – 66.2% |
| 2 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | 69.3% | 58.0% | 51.4% – 64.4% |
| 3 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 175 | 61.7% | 57.8% | 52.8% – 62.7% |
| 4 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 110 | 62.7% | 57.1% | 51.4% – 62.7% |
| 5 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 28 | 78.6% | 56.9% | 49.5% – 64.2% |
| 6 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 97 | 61.9% | 56.3% | 50.3% – 62.1% |
| 7 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 110 | 60.9% | 56.1% | 50.4% – 61.8% |
| 8 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 107 | 60.8% | 56.0% | 50.2% – 61.7% |
| 9 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 62 | 62.9% | 55.4% | 48.9% – 61.9% |
| 10 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 113 | 59.3% | 55.3% | 49.6% – 60.9% |
| 11 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 154 | 57.8% | 55.0% | 49.8% – 60.2% |
| 12 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 159 | 56.6% | 54.3% | 49.2% – 59.5% |
| 13 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 80 | 58.8% | 54.3% | 48.1% – 60.5% |
| 14 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 73 | 58.9% | 54.2% | 47.8% – 60.5% |
| 15 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 62 | 59.7% | 54.1% | 47.6% – 60.7% |
| 16 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 29 | 65.5% | 54.0% | 46.6% – 61.4% |
| 17 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 42 | 61.9% | 54.0% | 47.0% – 61.0% |
| 18 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 55 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 47.3% – 60.7% |
| 19 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 61.4% | 54.0% | 47.0% – 60.9% |
| 20 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 100 | 57.0% | 53.8% | 47.9% – 59.7% |
| 21 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 138 | 55.8% | 53.6% | 48.3% – 59.0% |
| 22 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 32 | 62.5% | 53.5% | 46.2% – 60.8% |
| 23 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 90 | 56.7% | 53.5% | 47.5% – 59.5% |
| 24 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 38 | 60.5% | 53.4% | 46.2% – 60.5% |
| 25 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 85 | 56.5% | 53.3% | 47.2% – 59.4% |
| 26 | Tylan Wallace◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 12 | 75.0% | 53.3% | 45.3% – 61.2% |
| 27 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 46 | 58.7% | 53.2% | 46.3% – 60.1% |
| 28 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 50 | 58.0% | 53.1% | 46.3% – 59.9% |
| 29 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 135 | 54.8% | 53.0% | 47.6% – 58.4% |
| 30 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 53.0% | 45.4% – 60.6% |
| 31 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 130 | 54.6% | 52.9% | 47.4% – 58.4% |
| 32 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 113 | 54.9% | 52.9% | 47.2% – 58.6% |
| 33 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 64 | 56.3% | 52.8% | 46.3% – 59.3% |
| 34 | Malik Heath◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | 69.2% | 52.8% | 44.8% – 60.7% |
| 35 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 118 | 54.2% | 52.6% | 46.9% – 58.2% |
| 36 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 99 | 54.5% | 52.6% | 46.7% – 58.5% |
| 37 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 61 | 55.7% | 52.6% | 46.0% – 59.1% |
| 38 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | 55.4% | 52.3% | 45.6% – 59.0% |
| 39 | Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 106 | 53.8% | 52.2% | 46.4% – 58.0% |
| 40 | Jake Bobo◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 18 | 61.1% | 52.2% | 44.4% – 59.9% |
| 41 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 87 | 54.0% | 52.2% | 46.1% – 58.3% |
| 42 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | 135 | 53.3% | 52.2% | 46.7% – 57.6% |
| 43 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DET | WR | 45 | 55.6% | 52.1% | 45.2% – 59.1% |
| 44 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 74 | 54.0% | 52.1% | 45.7% – 58.4% |
| 45 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 76 | 53.9% | 52.0% | 45.7% – 58.3% |
| 46 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | 107 | 53.3% | 52.0% | 46.2% – 57.8% |
| 47 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 117 | 53.0% | 51.9% | 46.2% – 57.5% |
| 48 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 67 | 53.7% | 51.8% | 45.4% – 58.3% |
| 49 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 69 | 53.6% | 51.8% | 45.4% – 58.2% |
| 50 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 154 | 52.6% | 51.8% | 46.6% – 57.0% |
| 51 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 55.6% | 51.6% | 44.2% – 59.1% |
| 52 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 58 | 53.4% | 51.6% | 45.0% – 58.3% |
| 53 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 64 | 53.1% | 51.6% | 45.0% – 58.1% |
| 54 | Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 99 | 52.5% | 51.5% | 45.6% – 57.4% |
| 55 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 72 | 52.8% | 51.5% | 45.1% – 57.8% |
| 56 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 26 | 53.8% | 51.2% | 43.7% – 58.7% |
| 57 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 69 | 52.2% | 51.2% | 44.8% – 57.6% |
| 58 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 36 | 52.8% | 51.1% | 43.9% – 58.3% |
| 59 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 87 | 51.7% | 51.1% | 45.0% – 57.2% |
| 60 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 91 | 51.6% | 51.1% | 45.0% – 57.1% |
| 61 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 148 | 51.3% | 51.0% | 45.7% – 56.3% |
| 62 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | 51.9% | 51.0% | 44.2% – 57.8% |
| 63 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 123 | 51.2% | 50.9% | 45.3% – 56.5% |
| 64 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 50.9% | 43.0% – 58.8% |
| 65 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 72 | 51.4% | 50.9% | 44.5% – 57.2% |
| 66 | Bub Means◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 50.9% | 43.0% – 58.7% |
| 67 | Derius Davis◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 50.9% | 43.1% – 58.6% |
| 68 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 50.7% | 43.8% – 57.6% |
| 69 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 53 | 50.9% | 50.7% | 43.9% – 57.4% |
| 70 | David Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 57 | 50.9% | 50.6% | 44.0% – 57.3% |
| 71 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 61 | 50.8% | 50.6% | 44.0% – 57.2% |
| 72 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 71 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 44.2% – 57.0% |
| 73 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 79 | 50.6% | 50.6% | 44.3% – 56.8% |
| 74 | Tank Dell◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 81 | 50.6% | 50.5% | 44.3% – 56.8% |
| 75 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 91 | 50.5% | 50.5% | 44.5% – 56.5% |
| 76 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 42.5% – 58.4% |
| 77 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 42.5% – 58.3% |
| 78 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 16 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 42.6% – 58.2% |
| 79 | Ryan Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 42.7% – 58.1% |
| 80 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 42.8% – 57.9% |
| 81 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 50 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 43.5% – 57.1% |
| 82 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 100 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 44.3% – 56.1% |
| 83 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 116 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 44.5% – 55.9% |
| 84 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 47 | 48.9% | 50.0% | 43.1% – 56.9% |
| 85 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 48.9% | 50.0% | 43.1% – 56.9% |
| 86 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 50.0% | 42.8% – 57.1% |
| 87 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 58 | 48.3% | 49.6% | 43.0% – 56.3% |
| 88 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 58 | 48.3% | 49.6% | 43.0% – 56.3% |
| 89 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.5% | 41.9% – 57.1% |
| 90 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 49.5% | 41.6% – 57.4% |
| 91 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | SF | WR | 12 | 41.7% | 49.5% | 41.5% – 57.5% |
| 92 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 109 | 48.6% | 49.5% | 43.7% – 55.3% |
| 93 | Davante Adams | NYJ | WR | 142 | 48.6% | 49.4% | 44.0% – 54.7% |
| 94 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 35 | 45.7% | 49.2% | 42.0% – 56.4% |
| 95 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 44.0% | 49.1% | 41.6% – 56.6% |
| 96 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 15 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 41.2% – 56.9% |
| 97 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 60 | 46.7% | 49.0% | 42.4% – 55.6% |
| 98 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 58 | 46.6% | 49.0% | 42.3% – 55.6% |
| 99 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 40 | 45.0% | 48.9% | 41.8% – 55.9% |
| 100 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 30 | 43.3% | 48.8% | 41.4% – 56.1% |
| 101 | Trey Palmer◦ provisional | TB | WR | 22 | 40.9% | 48.7% | 41.1% – 56.3% |
| 102 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 172 | 47.7% | 48.7% | 43.6% – 53.7% |
| 103 | Simi Fehoko◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 48.6% | 40.8% – 56.4% |
| 104 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 51 | 45.1% | 48.6% | 41.8% – 55.4% |
| 105 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 48.6% | 40.7% – 56.5% |
| 106 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 154 | 47.4% | 48.6% | 43.4% – 53.8% |
| 107 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 48.5% | 40.6% – 56.5% |
| 108 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 41 | 43.9% | 48.5% | 41.4% – 55.6% |
| 109 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 33 | 42.4% | 48.4% | 41.1% – 55.7% |
| 110 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 29 | 41.4% | 48.3% | 41.0% – 55.8% |
| 111 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 54 | 44.4% | 48.3% | 41.6% – 55.0% |
| 112 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 112 | 46.4% | 48.3% | 42.6% – 54.0% |
| 113 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 52 | 44.2% | 48.3% | 41.5% – 55.1% |
| 114 | Johnny Wilson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 15 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 40.3% – 56.0% |
| 115 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | 43.4% | 47.9% | 41.2% – 54.7% |
| 116 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | 38.5% | 47.9% | 40.4% – 55.4% |
| 117 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 66 | 43.9% | 47.8% | 41.3% – 54.3% |
| 118 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 41 | 41.5% | 47.8% | 40.7% – 54.8% |
| 119 | Jermaine Burton◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 47.6% | 39.8% – 55.5% |
| 120 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 54 | 42.6% | 47.6% | 40.9% – 54.4% |
| 121 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 29 | 37.9% | 47.5% | 40.2% – 54.9% |
| 122 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 101 | 44.5% | 47.4% | 41.6% – 53.3% |
| 123 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | WR | 120 | 45.0% | 47.4% | 41.8% – 53.0% |
| 124 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 42 | 40.5% | 47.4% | 40.4% – 54.4% |
| 125 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 40 | 40.0% | 47.4% | 40.3% – 54.5% |
| 126 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 76 | 43.4% | 47.3% | 41.1% – 53.6% |
| 127 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 47.3% | 39.6% – 55.0% |
| 128 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 47.3% | 39.6% – 55.0% |
| 129 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 142 | 45.1% | 47.2% | 41.9% – 52.6% |
| 130 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 45 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 40.2% – 54.1% |
| 131 | DJ Turner◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | 34.5% | 46.7% | 39.4% – 54.1% |
| 132 | Mike Woods◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 17 | 23.5% | 46.4% | 38.6% – 54.2% |
| 133 | Jalen Brooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 30 | 33.3% | 46.3% | 39.0% – 53.7% |
| 134 | Keenan Allen | CHI | WR | 123 | 43.1% | 46.3% | 40.8% – 51.9% |
| 135 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 30.8% | 46.2% | 38.8% – 53.7% |
| 136 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 100 | 42.0% | 46.1% | 40.3% – 52.0% |
| 137 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 85 | 41.2% | 46.1% | 40.0% – 52.2% |
| 138 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 46 | 37.0% | 46.0% | 39.2% – 53.0% |
| 139 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 36.4% | 46.0% | 39.1% – 53.0% |
| 140 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 81 | 40.7% | 46.0% | 39.8% – 52.2% |
| 141 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 81 | 40.7% | 46.0% | 39.8% – 52.2% |
| 142 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | 22.2% | 46.0% | 38.3% – 53.7% |
| 143 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | 103 | 41.8% | 45.9% | 40.1% – 51.8% |
| 144 | Xavier Legette◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 85 | 40.0% | 45.5% | 39.4% – 51.6% |
| 145 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 140 | 42.1% | 45.5% | 40.2% – 50.9% |
| 146 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 55 | 36.4% | 45.3% | 38.6% – 52.0% |
| 147 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 67 | 37.3% | 45.0% | 38.6% – 51.5% |
| 148 | Troy Franklin◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | 34.0% | 44.5% | 37.9% – 51.3% |
| 149 | Ja'Lynn Polk◦ provisional | NE | WR | 34 | 26.5% | 44.1% | 37.0% – 51.4% |
| 150 | Jonathan Mingo◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 42 | 28.6% | 43.7% | 36.8% – 50.7% |
| 151 | Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 102 | 35.3% | 42.6% | 36.8% – 48.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).