NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2024
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 126
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 141 | +0.68 | +0.48 | +0.31 – +0.65 |
| 2 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 118 | +0.60 | +0.42 | +0.25 – +0.59 |
| 3 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 97 | +0.64 | +0.42 | +0.24 – +0.60 |
| 4 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 90 | +0.63 | +0.41 | +0.23 – +0.59 |
| 5 | Ladd McConkey◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 113 | +0.58 | +0.41 | +0.23 – +0.58 |
| 6 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 72 | +0.62 | +0.39 | +0.19 – +0.58 |
| 7 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 62 | +0.65 | +0.38 | +0.19 – +0.58 |
| 8 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 110 | +0.51 | +0.37 | +0.20 – +0.55 |
| 9 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 69 | +0.58 | +0.37 | +0.18 – +0.56 |
| 10 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 55 | +0.64 | +0.37 | +0.17 – +0.57 |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 175 | +0.44 | +0.36 | +0.21 – +0.52 |
| 12 | Puka Nacua◦ provisional | LA | WR | 107 | +0.49 | +0.36 | +0.18 – +0.54 |
| 13 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 76 | +0.54 | +0.36 | +0.17 – +0.55 |
| 14 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | +0.57 | +0.36 | +0.16 – +0.55 |
| 15 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 46 | +0.63 | +0.35 | +0.15 – +0.56 |
| 16 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 154 | +0.42 | +0.34 | +0.18 – +0.50 |
| 17 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 85 | +0.47 | +0.34 | +0.15 – +0.53 |
| 18 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 100 | +0.44 | +0.34 | +0.16 – +0.52 |
| 19 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 42 | +0.58 | +0.33 | +0.13 – +0.54 |
| 20 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 99 | +0.43 | +0.33 | +0.15 – +0.51 |
| 21 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 61 | +0.49 | +0.33 | +0.13 – +0.53 |
| 22 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | 135 | +0.40 | +0.33 | +0.16 – +0.50 |
| 23 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 106 | +0.41 | +0.33 | +0.15 – +0.50 |
| 24 | Tylan Wallace◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 12 | +1.06 | +0.32 | +0.09 – +0.55 |
| 25 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 32 | +0.60 | +0.32 | +0.11 – +0.54 |
| 26 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 91 | +0.41 | +0.32 | +0.14 – +0.50 |
| 27 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 50 | +0.49 | +0.32 | +0.11 – +0.52 |
| 28 | Zay Flowers◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 117 | +0.38 | +0.31 | +0.14 – +0.49 |
| 29 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 113 | +0.38 | +0.31 | +0.14 – +0.49 |
| 30 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 28 | +0.59 | +0.31 | +0.09 – +0.53 |
| 31 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 29 | +0.57 | +0.31 | +0.09 – +0.53 |
| 32 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 58 | +0.44 | +0.31 | +0.11 – +0.51 |
| 33 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 73 | +0.41 | +0.31 | +0.12 – +0.50 |
| 34 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 91 | +0.38 | +0.31 | +0.12 – +0.49 |
| 35 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 67 | +0.41 | +0.31 | +0.11 – +0.50 |
| 36 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 22 | +0.60 | +0.30 | +0.08 – +0.53 |
| 37 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 138 | +0.35 | +0.30 | +0.14 – +0.47 |
| 38 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 58 | +0.42 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 39 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | +0.42 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 40 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DET | WR | 45 | +0.44 | +0.30 | +0.09 – +0.51 |
| 41 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 64 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.49 |
| 42 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 61 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 43 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 110 | +0.35 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.47 |
| 44 | Jordan Addison◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 100 | +0.35 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.48 |
| 45 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | +0.69 | +0.29 | +0.06 – +0.52 |
| 46 | Malik Heath◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | +0.64 | +0.29 | +0.06 – +0.52 |
| 47 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 35 | +0.42 | +0.29 | +0.07 – +0.50 |
| 48 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 54 | +0.37 | +0.29 | +0.08 – +0.49 |
| 49 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 79 | +0.32 | +0.28 | +0.09 – +0.47 |
| 50 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 69 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 51 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 62 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 52 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | +0.35 | +0.27 | +0.05 – +0.49 |
| 53 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 54 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 135 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.10 – +0.43 |
| 55 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 64 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 56 | George Pickens◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 103 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.08 – +0.44 |
| 57 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 172 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.10 – +0.42 |
| 58 | Derius Davis◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | +0.32 | +0.26 | +0.03 – +0.49 |
| 59 | Tank Dell◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 81 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.45 |
| 60 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 148 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.09 – +0.42 |
| 61 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.05 – +0.46 |
| 62 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.03 – +0.49 |
| 63 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 15 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.48 |
| 64 | Trey Palmer◦ provisional | TB | WR | 22 | +0.27 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.48 |
| 65 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 53 | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.05 – +0.45 |
| 66 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 130 | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.08 – +0.42 |
| 67 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 29 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.47 |
| 68 | Ryan Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 20 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.47 |
| 69 | Bub Means◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | +0.22 | +0.25 | +0.02 – +0.48 |
| 70 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 16 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.02 – +0.47 |
| 71 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 80 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.06 – +0.44 |
| 72 | Jake Bobo◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 18 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.02 – +0.47 |
| 73 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.04 – +0.45 |
| 74 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 87 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.06 – +0.43 |
| 75 | Josh Downs◦ provisional | IND | WR | 107 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.42 |
| 76 | Marvin Harrison Jr.◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 116 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.07 – +0.42 |
| 77 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 120 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.07 – +0.42 |
| 78 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 13 | +0.16 | +0.24 | +0.01 – +0.47 |
| 79 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 38 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.45 |
| 80 | Simi Fehoko◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.01 – +0.47 |
| 81 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.04 – +0.44 |
| 82 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 159 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.08 – +0.40 |
| 83 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 36 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.45 |
| 84 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 60 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.04 – +0.44 |
| 85 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 123 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.06 – +0.41 |
| 86 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 109 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.41 |
| 87 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 72 | +0.20 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.43 |
| 88 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | +0.13 | +0.23 | +0.01 – +0.45 |
| 89 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 47 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 90 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | +0.11 | +0.23 | +0.01 – +0.45 |
| 91 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 52 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.43 |
| 92 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 58 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.43 |
| 93 | Xavier Worthy◦ provisional | KC | WR | 99 | +0.20 | +0.23 | +0.05 – +0.41 |
| 94 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | +0.16 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 95 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.00 – +0.44 |
| 96 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 50 | +0.15 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 97 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 74 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.41 |
| 98 | David Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 57 | +0.15 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.42 |
| 99 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 26 | +0.05 | +0.22 | -0.00 – +0.44 |
| 100 | Johnny Wilson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 15 | -0.08 | +0.22 | -0.01 – +0.44 |
| 101 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | SF | WR | 12 | -0.16 | +0.22 | -0.02 – +0.45 |
| 102 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 37 | +0.08 | +0.21 | +0.00 – +0.42 |
| 103 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 123 | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.38 |
| 104 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 81 | +0.15 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.40 |
| 105 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 71 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.40 |
| 106 | Rome Odunze◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 101 | +0.16 | +0.21 | +0.03 – +0.39 |
| 107 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 30 | +0.03 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.43 |
| 108 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 66 | +0.12 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.40 |
| 109 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 81 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.39 |
| 110 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 14 | -0.20 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.43 |
| 111 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 40 | +0.05 | +0.20 | -0.01 – +0.41 |
| 112 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 40 | +0.05 | +0.20 | -0.01 – +0.41 |
| 113 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 14 | -0.29 | +0.20 | -0.03 – +0.43 |
| 114 | Davante Adams | NYJ | WR | 142 | +0.15 | +0.20 | +0.03 – +0.36 |
| 115 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | +0.03 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.40 |
| 116 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 154 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.03 – +0.36 |
| 117 | Jermaine Burton◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 14 | -0.32 | +0.19 | -0.04 – +0.42 |
| 118 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 29 | -0.06 | +0.19 | -0.03 – +0.41 |
| 119 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 33 | -0.03 | +0.19 | -0.02 – +0.41 |
| 120 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 58 | +0.05 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 121 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 154 | +0.13 | +0.18 | +0.02 – +0.35 |
| 122 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 85 | +0.08 | +0.18 | -0.00 – +0.37 |
| 123 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 142 | +0.12 | +0.18 | +0.01 – +0.34 |
| 124 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | -0.61 | +0.18 | -0.05 – +0.41 |
| 125 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 87 | +0.06 | +0.17 | -0.01 – +0.36 |
| 126 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 41 | -0.07 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.38 |
| 127 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | -0.35 | +0.17 | -0.05 – +0.40 |
| 128 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 51 | -0.02 | +0.17 | -0.03 – +0.37 |
| 129 | Xavier Legette◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 85 | +0.05 | +0.17 | -0.02 – +0.36 |
| 130 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | -0.41 | +0.17 | -0.06 – +0.39 |
| 131 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 42 | -0.10 | +0.16 | -0.05 – +0.37 |
| 132 | Mike Woods◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 17 | -0.53 | +0.16 | -0.07 – +0.38 |
| 133 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 100 | +0.04 | +0.16 | -0.02 – +0.34 |
| 134 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | -0.30 | +0.16 | -0.06 – +0.38 |
| 135 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 41 | -0.14 | +0.15 | -0.06 – +0.36 |
| 136 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 55 | -0.09 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.35 |
| 137 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 19 | -0.59 | +0.14 | -0.08 – +0.36 |
| 138 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | -0.40 | +0.14 | -0.08 – +0.36 |
| 139 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 112 | +0.01 | +0.14 | -0.04 – +0.31 |
| 140 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 45 | -0.19 | +0.13 | -0.07 – +0.34 |
| 141 | DJ Turner◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | -0.39 | +0.13 | -0.09 – +0.35 |
| 142 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 46 | -0.22 | +0.12 | -0.08 – +0.33 |
| 143 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 76 | -0.10 | +0.12 | -0.07 – +0.31 |
| 144 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 54 | -0.21 | +0.11 | -0.09 – +0.32 |
| 145 | Jonathan Mingo◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 42 | -0.32 | +0.11 | -0.10 – +0.32 |
| 146 | Jalen Brooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 30 | -0.59 | +0.09 | -0.13 – +0.31 |
| 147 | Troy Franklin◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | -0.35 | +0.07 | -0.13 – +0.28 |
| 148 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 67 | -0.27 | +0.07 | -0.12 – +0.27 |
| 149 | Ja'Lynn Polk◦ provisional | NE | WR | 34 | -0.61 | +0.07 | -0.15 – +0.28 |
| 150 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 140 | -0.17 | +0.03 | -0.14 – +0.19 |
| 151 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 102 | -0.36 | -0.02 | -0.20 – +0.16 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).