NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2023
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 140
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2023 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 105 | 69.5% | 58.7% | 53.4% – 63.8% |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 182 | 60.4% | 56.1% | 51.5% – 60.6% |
| 3 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 46 | 69.6% | 55.2% | 49.2% – 61.2% |
| 4 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 124 | 60.5% | 55.2% | 50.1% – 60.2% |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 150 | 59.3% | 55.1% | 50.2% – 59.9% |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 165 | 58.8% | 55.0% | 50.3% – 59.7% |
| 7 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 104 | 60.6% | 54.8% | 49.5% – 60.0% |
| 8 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 44 | 68.2% | 54.7% | 48.7% – 60.7% |
| 9 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 172 | 58.1% | 54.7% | 50.1% – 59.3% |
| 10 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 110 | 60.0% | 54.7% | 49.5% – 59.8% |
| 11 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 138 | 58.7% | 54.6% | 49.6% – 59.5% |
| 12 | Justin Jefferson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 100 | 58.0% | 53.6% | 48.3% – 58.9% |
| 13 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 102 | 57.8% | 53.6% | 48.3% – 58.9% |
| 14 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 138 | 56.5% | 53.5% | 48.6% – 58.4% |
| 15 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 58 | 60.3% | 53.4% | 47.5% – 59.2% |
| 16 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 139 | 56.1% | 53.3% | 48.4% – 58.2% |
| 17 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 113 | 56.6% | 53.2% | 48.1% – 58.4% |
| 18 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 145 | 55.9% | 53.2% | 48.4% – 58.1% |
| 19 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | LV | WR | 106 | 56.6% | 53.1% | 47.9% – 58.3% |
| 20 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 82 | 57.3% | 53.0% | 47.5% – 58.5% |
| 21 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 160 | 55.0% | 52.9% | 48.1% – 57.6% |
| 22 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 45 | 60.0% | 52.8% | 46.8% – 58.8% |
| 23 | Trenton Irwin◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 32 | 62.5% | 52.7% | 46.5% – 59.0% |
| 24 | Brandon Johnson◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 31 | 61.3% | 52.4% | 46.2% – 58.7% |
| 25 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 64 | 56.3% | 52.3% | 46.5% – 58.0% |
| 26 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 89 | 55.1% | 52.3% | 46.8% – 57.7% |
| 27 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 158 | 53.8% | 52.3% | 47.5% – 57.0% |
| 28 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 46 | 56.5% | 52.0% | 46.0% – 58.0% |
| 29 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 52.0% | 45.5% – 58.4% |
| 30 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 52.0% | 45.5% – 58.4% |
| 31 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 25 | 60.0% | 51.9% | 45.5% – 58.3% |
| 32 | Drake London◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 112 | 53.6% | 51.9% | 46.7% – 57.0% |
| 33 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 51.8% | 45.6% – 58.1% |
| 34 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 51.8% | 45.6% – 58.0% |
| 35 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 64 | 54.7% | 51.8% | 46.1% – 57.6% |
| 36 | River Cracraft◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 12 | 66.7% | 51.8% | 45.1% – 58.4% |
| 37 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 161 | 52.8% | 51.7% | 47.0% – 56.5% |
| 38 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 76 | 53.9% | 51.7% | 46.1% – 57.3% |
| 39 | A.T. Perry◦ provisional | NO | WR | 18 | 61.1% | 51.7% | 45.2% – 58.2% |
| 40 | Tank Dell◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 76 | 53.9% | 51.7% | 46.1% – 57.3% |
| 41 | Zay Flowers◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 109 | 53.2% | 51.7% | 46.5% – 56.9% |
| 42 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 51.6% | 45.2% – 58.0% |
| 43 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 59 | 54.2% | 51.6% | 45.8% – 57.4% |
| 44 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 158 | 52.5% | 51.6% | 46.8% – 56.3% |
| 45 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 51.5% | 45.3% – 57.7% |
| 46 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 137 | 52.5% | 51.5% | 46.6% – 56.4% |
| 47 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 51.4% | 44.9% – 57.9% |
| 48 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 56 | 53.6% | 51.4% | 45.5% – 57.2% |
| 49 | Deonte Harty◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 51.4% | 44.9% – 57.8% |
| 50 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 78 | 52.6% | 51.2% | 45.7% – 56.8% |
| 51 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 39 | 53.8% | 51.2% | 45.1% – 57.4% |
| 52 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 96 | 52.1% | 51.1% | 45.8% – 56.5% |
| 53 | Josh Downs◦ provisional | IND | WR | 98 | 52.0% | 51.1% | 45.8% – 56.5% |
| 54 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 20 | 55.0% | 51.1% | 44.6% – 57.5% |
| 55 | Kyle Philips◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 22 | 54.5% | 51.0% | 44.6% – 57.5% |
| 56 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 79 | 51.9% | 51.0% | 45.5% – 56.5% |
| 57 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 85 | 51.8% | 51.0% | 45.5% – 56.4% |
| 58 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 97 | 51.5% | 50.9% | 45.6% – 56.3% |
| 59 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 119 | 51.3% | 50.8% | 45.7% – 56.0% |
| 60 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | SF | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 50.8% | 44.2% – 57.4% |
| 61 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 82 | 51.2% | 50.8% | 45.3% – 56.3% |
| 62 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 33 | 51.5% | 50.7% | 44.4% – 56.9% |
| 63 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 33 | 51.5% | 50.7% | 44.4% – 56.9% |
| 64 | George Pickens◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 106 | 50.9% | 50.7% | 45.5% – 55.9% |
| 65 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 130 | 50.8% | 50.6% | 45.6% – 55.6% |
| 66 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 57 | 50.9% | 50.6% | 44.8% – 56.5% |
| 67 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 87 | 50.6% | 50.5% | 45.1% – 56.0% |
| 68 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | IND | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 43.8% – 57.1% |
| 69 | Richie James◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 43.8% – 57.1% |
| 70 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 43.9% – 56.9% |
| 71 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 30 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 44.1% – 56.7% |
| 72 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 56 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 44.5% – 56.2% |
| 73 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.1% | 43.6% – 56.6% |
| 74 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 50.1% | 43.7% – 56.5% |
| 75 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.1% | 43.6% – 56.6% |
| 76 | Ronnie Bell◦ provisional | SF | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 50.1% | 43.5% – 56.8% |
| 77 | Jake Bobo◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 50.1% | 43.7% – 56.5% |
| 78 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 91 | 49.5% | 50.1% | 44.7% – 55.5% |
| 79 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 95 | 49.5% | 50.1% | 44.7% – 55.4% |
| 80 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 131 | 49.6% | 50.1% | 45.1% – 55.1% |
| 81 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 137 | 49.6% | 50.1% | 45.1% – 55.0% |
| 82 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 98 | 49.0% | 49.9% | 44.5% – 55.2% |
| 83 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 64 | 48.4% | 49.9% | 44.1% – 55.6% |
| 84 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 44 | 47.7% | 49.8% | 43.8% – 55.9% |
| 85 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 40 | 47.5% | 49.8% | 43.7% – 56.0% |
| 86 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 38 | 47.4% | 49.8% | 43.7% – 56.0% |
| 87 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 30 | 46.7% | 49.8% | 43.5% – 56.1% |
| 88 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.8% | 43.4% – 56.3% |
| 89 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.8% | 43.4% – 56.3% |
| 90 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 49.8% | 43.4% – 56.2% |
| 91 | Malik Heath◦ provisional | GB | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 49.8% | 43.4% – 56.2% |
| 92 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 16 | 43.8% | 49.8% | 43.2% – 56.4% |
| 93 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 49.8% | 43.3% – 56.3% |
| 94 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 12 | 41.7% | 49.8% | 43.1% – 56.5% |
| 95 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 93 | 48.4% | 49.6% | 44.3% – 55.0% |
| 96 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 87 | 48.3% | 49.6% | 44.2% – 55.1% |
| 97 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 83 | 48.2% | 49.6% | 44.1% – 55.1% |
| 98 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 47.3% | 49.6% | 43.7% – 55.5% |
| 99 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 47.3% | 49.6% | 43.7% – 55.5% |
| 100 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 53 | 47.2% | 49.6% | 43.7% – 55.5% |
| 101 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 53 | 47.2% | 49.6% | 43.7% – 55.5% |
| 102 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 37 | 46.0% | 49.5% | 43.4% – 55.7% |
| 103 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 33 | 45.5% | 49.5% | 43.3% – 55.8% |
| 104 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 29 | 44.8% | 49.5% | 43.2% – 55.8% |
| 105 | David Bell◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 49.5% | 43.1% – 55.9% |
| 106 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 42 | 45.2% | 49.3% | 43.2% – 55.4% |
| 107 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 34 | 44.1% | 49.2% | 43.0% – 55.5% |
| 108 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 91 | 47.3% | 49.2% | 43.8% – 54.6% |
| 109 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NE | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 49.1% | 42.5% – 55.8% |
| 110 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 67 | 46.3% | 49.1% | 43.4% – 54.8% |
| 111 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 65 | 46.2% | 49.1% | 43.4% – 54.9% |
| 112 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | NE | WR | 47 | 44.7% | 49.0% | 43.0% – 55.0% |
| 113 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 41 | 43.9% | 49.0% | 42.9% – 55.1% |
| 114 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 33 | 42.4% | 48.9% | 42.7% – 55.2% |
| 115 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 25 | 40.0% | 48.9% | 42.5% – 55.3% |
| 116 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 68 | 45.6% | 48.9% | 43.2% – 54.6% |
| 117 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 64 | 45.3% | 48.9% | 43.1% – 54.6% |
| 118 | Jalen Guyton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 21 | 38.1% | 48.9% | 42.4% – 55.4% |
| 119 | Tim Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 19 | 36.8% | 48.9% | 42.4% – 55.4% |
| 120 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | 43.2% | 48.7% | 42.7% – 54.8% |
| 121 | Skyy Moore◦ provisional | KC | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 48.7% | 42.5% – 54.9% |
| 122 | Jordan Addison◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 108 | 46.3% | 48.7% | 43.5% – 53.9% |
| 123 | Tyler Scott◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 32 | 40.6% | 48.6% | 42.4% – 54.9% |
| 124 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 61 | 44.3% | 48.6% | 42.8% – 54.4% |
| 125 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 49 | 42.9% | 48.5% | 42.5% – 54.5% |
| 126 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 49 | 42.9% | 48.5% | 42.5% – 54.5% |
| 127 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | 175 | 46.9% | 48.5% | 43.9% – 53.1% |
| 128 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 43 | 41.9% | 48.5% | 42.4% – 54.5% |
| 129 | Deven Thompkins◦ provisional | TB | WR | 25 | 36.0% | 48.3% | 41.9% – 54.7% |
| 130 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 48.2% | 41.7% – 54.8% |
| 131 | Samori Toure◦ provisional | GB | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 48.2% | 41.7% – 54.8% |
| 132 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 75 | 44.0% | 48.2% | 42.6% – 53.8% |
| 133 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 75 | 44.0% | 48.2% | 42.6% – 53.8% |
| 134 | Derius Davis◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 29.4% | 48.2% | 41.7% – 54.8% |
| 135 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | KC | WR | 38 | 39.5% | 48.1% | 42.0% – 54.3% |
| 136 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 61 | 42.6% | 48.1% | 42.3% – 53.9% |
| 137 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 30 | 36.7% | 48.0% | 41.8% – 54.4% |
| 138 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 30 | 36.7% | 48.0% | 41.8% – 54.4% |
| 139 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 137 | 45.3% | 47.9% | 43.0% – 52.8% |
| 140 | Lynn Bowden◦ provisional | NO | WR | 16 | 25.0% | 47.9% | 41.3% – 54.5% |
| 141 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 27 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 41.4% – 54.1% |
| 142 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | KC | WR | 42 | 38.1% | 47.6% | 41.6% – 53.7% |
| 143 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 19 | 26.3% | 47.6% | 41.1% – 54.1% |
| 144 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 15 | 20.0% | 47.5% | 41.0% – 54.1% |
| 145 | Keelan Doss◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 13 | 15.4% | 47.5% | 40.9% – 54.1% |
| 146 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 79 | 41.8% | 47.3% | 41.8% – 52.9% |
| 147 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 75 | 41.3% | 47.3% | 41.7% – 52.9% |
| 148 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 22.2% | 47.3% | 40.8% – 53.8% |
| 149 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 23 | 26.1% | 47.0% | 40.6% – 53.5% |
| 150 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 21 | 23.8% | 47.0% | 40.6% – 53.5% |
| 151 | Xavier Gipson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 38 | 34.2% | 47.0% | 40.9% – 53.2% |
| 152 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 132 | 43.2% | 46.9% | 42.0% – 51.9% |
| 153 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 13 | 7.7% | 46.9% | 40.3% – 53.5% |
| 154 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 22 | 22.7% | 46.7% | 40.3% – 53.2% |
| 155 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 63 | 38.1% | 46.6% | 40.9% – 52.4% |
| 156 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 104 | 41.3% | 46.6% | 41.4% – 51.8% |
| 157 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 66 | 37.9% | 46.4% | 40.8% – 52.2% |
| 158 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | NE | WR | 23 | 21.7% | 46.4% | 40.0% – 52.9% |
| 159 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 168 | 42.9% | 46.3% | 41.7% – 51.0% |
| 160 | Trey Palmer◦ provisional | TB | WR | 69 | 37.7% | 46.3% | 40.6% – 51.9% |
| 161 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 104 | 38.5% | 45.4% | 40.1% – 50.6% |
| 162 | Jonathan Mingo◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 85 | 32.9% | 43.9% | 38.5% – 49.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).