NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2023
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 93
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2023 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 102 | 77.5% | 70.5% | 65.0% – 75.7% |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 182 | 74.2% | 70.3% | 65.7% – 74.8% |
| 3 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 46 | 84.8% | 70.1% | 63.6% – 76.3% |
| 4 | Adam Thielen | CAR | WR | 138 | 74.6% | 69.9% | 64.8% – 74.8% |
| 5 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 78 | 76.9% | 69.3% | 63.3% – 74.9% |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 165 | 72.1% | 68.8% | 64.0% – 73.4% |
| 7 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 150 | 72.0% | 68.5% | 63.5% – 73.3% |
| 8 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 44 | 79.5% | 68.2% | 61.5% – 74.6% |
| 9 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 110 | 72.7% | 68.2% | 62.7% – 73.5% |
| 10 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 33 | 81.8% | 67.8% | 60.8% – 74.5% |
| 11 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 45 | 77.8% | 67.7% | 61.0% – 74.1% |
| 12 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 113 | 71.7% | 67.7% | 62.3% – 73.0% |
| 13 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 105 | 71.4% | 67.4% | 61.8% – 72.8% |
| 14 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 109 | 70.6% | 67.1% | 61.5% – 72.4% |
| 15 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 172 | 69.2% | 67.0% | 62.1% – 71.6% |
| 16 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 138 | 69.6% | 66.9% | 61.7% – 71.9% |
| 17 | Derius Davis◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 88.2% | 66.8% | 59.2% – 74.0% |
| 18 | Trenton Irwin◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 32 | 78.1% | 66.8% | 59.7% – 73.5% |
| 19 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 158 | 69.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% – 71.5% |
| 20 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 145 | 69.0% | 66.6% | 61.5% – 71.5% |
| 21 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 104 | 69.2% | 66.2% | 60.6% – 71.7% |
| 22 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | 98 | 69.4% | 66.2% | 60.5% – 71.7% |
| 23 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 20 | 80.0% | 65.9% | 58.4% – 73.0% |
| 24 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 98 | 68.4% | 65.7% | 59.9% – 71.2% |
| 25 | Jake Bobo◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 25 | 76.0% | 65.6% | 58.3% – 72.7% |
| 26 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 158 | 67.1% | 65.5% | 60.5% – 70.4% |
| 27 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 100 | 68.0% | 65.5% | 59.8% – 71.0% |
| 28 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 91 | 68.1% | 65.5% | 59.6% – 71.1% |
| 29 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 27 | 74.1% | 65.4% | 58.1% – 72.4% |
| 30 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 21 | 76.2% | 65.3% | 57.8% – 72.5% |
| 31 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 93 | 67.7% | 65.3% | 59.5% – 70.9% |
| 32 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | SF | WR | 15 | 80.0% | 65.2% | 57.5% – 72.6% |
| 33 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | KC | WR | 38 | 71.0% | 65.2% | 58.3% – 71.9% |
| 34 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 161 | 66.5% | 65.1% | 60.2% – 70.0% |
| 35 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 95 | 67.4% | 65.1% | 59.3% – 70.8% |
| 36 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 49 | 69.4% | 65.1% | 58.4% – 71.5% |
| 37 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 26 | 73.1% | 65.1% | 57.8% – 72.1% |
| 38 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 89 | 67.4% | 65.1% | 59.2% – 70.8% |
| 39 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 106 | 67.0% | 65.0% | 59.4% – 70.5% |
| 40 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | IND | WR | 14 | 78.6% | 64.9% | 57.2% – 72.3% |
| 41 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 85 | 67.1% | 64.9% | 58.9% – 70.6% |
| 42 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 160 | 65.6% | 64.6% | 59.6% – 69.5% |
| 43 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 58 | 67.2% | 64.5% | 58.0% – 70.8% |
| 44 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 67.3% | 64.5% | 57.9% – 70.8% |
| 45 | Deonte Harty◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 21 | 71.4% | 64.4% | 56.9% – 71.6% |
| 46 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 21 | 71.4% | 64.4% | 56.9% – 71.6% |
| 47 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 82 | 65.8% | 64.3% | 58.2% – 70.1% |
| 48 | River Cracraft◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 12 | 75.0% | 64.2% | 56.4% – 71.8% |
| 49 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 37 | 67.6% | 64.2% | 57.1% – 71.0% |
| 50 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 39 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 57.0% – 70.7% |
| 51 | Richie James◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 71.4% | 64.0% | 56.2% – 71.4% |
| 52 | Deven Thompkins◦ provisional | TB | WR | 25 | 68.0% | 63.9% | 56.5% – 71.0% |
| 53 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 108 | 64.8% | 63.9% | 58.3% – 69.4% |
| 54 | Kyle Philips◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 63.9% | 56.4% – 71.1% |
| 55 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 33 | 66.7% | 63.8% | 56.7% – 70.7% |
| 56 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 91 | 64.8% | 63.8% | 57.9% – 69.6% |
| 57 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 44 | 65.9% | 63.8% | 57.0% – 70.5% |
| 58 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 19 | 68.4% | 63.8% | 56.2% – 71.1% |
| 59 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 63.7% | 56.0% – 71.1% |
| 60 | Lynn Bowden◦ provisional | NO | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 63.7% | 56.0% – 71.1% |
| 61 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 21 | 66.7% | 63.5% | 56.0% – 70.8% |
| 62 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 63.5% | 55.8% – 70.8% |
| 63 | A.T. Perry◦ provisional | NO | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 63.5% | 55.8% – 70.8% |
| 64 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 59 | 64.4% | 63.4% | 56.9% – 69.8% |
| 65 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 75 | 64.0% | 63.3% | 57.2% – 69.4% |
| 66 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 124 | 63.7% | 63.3% | 57.9% – 68.6% |
| 67 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 12 | 66.7% | 63.3% | 55.4% – 70.9% |
| 68 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 131 | 63.4% | 63.1% | 57.8% – 68.4% |
| 69 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 63 | 63.5% | 63.1% | 56.7% – 69.3% |
| 70 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 79 | 63.3% | 63.0% | 56.9% – 69.0% |
| 71 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 33 | 63.6% | 63.0% | 55.9% – 70.0% |
| 72 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 63.0% | 55.5% – 70.3% |
| 73 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | 62.9% | 62.8% | 55.7% – 69.7% |
| 74 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 55.3% – 70.0% |
| 75 | Malik Heath◦ provisional | GB | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 55.3% – 70.0% |
| 76 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 64 | 62.5% | 62.7% | 56.3% – 68.9% |
| 77 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 139 | 62.6% | 62.7% | 57.4% – 67.8% |
| 78 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 61 | 62.3% | 62.6% | 56.1% – 68.9% |
| 79 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 87 | 62.1% | 62.5% | 56.5% – 68.3% |
| 80 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 79 | 62.0% | 62.5% | 56.3% – 68.4% |
| 81 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | NE | WR | 47 | 61.7% | 62.5% | 55.6% – 69.1% |
| 82 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 62.4% | 54.9% – 69.7% |
| 83 | David Bell◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 62.4% | 54.9% – 69.7% |
| 84 | Brandon Johnson◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 31 | 61.3% | 62.4% | 55.2% – 69.5% |
| 85 | Tank Dell◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 76 | 61.8% | 62.4% | 56.2% – 68.4% |
| 86 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 36 | 61.1% | 62.4% | 55.2% – 69.2% |
| 87 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 25 | 60.0% | 62.2% | 54.8% – 69.4% |
| 88 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 46 | 60.9% | 62.2% | 55.3% – 68.8% |
| 89 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 112 | 61.6% | 62.2% | 56.5% – 67.7% |
| 90 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 75 | 61.3% | 62.2% | 55.9% – 68.2% |
| 91 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 30 | 60.0% | 62.1% | 54.8% – 69.2% |
| 92 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 96 | 61.5% | 62.1% | 56.3% – 67.9% |
| 93 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 64 | 60.9% | 62.1% | 55.6% – 68.3% |
| 94 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 62.0% | 54.3% – 69.4% |
| 95 | Tim Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 62.0% | 54.3% – 69.4% |
| 96 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 97 | 60.8% | 61.8% | 55.9% – 67.5% |
| 97 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 60.0% | 61.8% | 55.1% – 68.2% |
| 98 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 57 | 59.7% | 61.6% | 55.0% – 68.0% |
| 99 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | NE | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 61.6% | 54.0% – 68.9% |
| 100 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 41 | 58.5% | 61.5% | 54.5% – 68.3% |
| 101 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 61.5% | 54.2% – 68.5% |
| 102 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 61.5% | 54.2% – 68.5% |
| 103 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 38 | 57.9% | 61.4% | 54.3% – 68.3% |
| 104 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 56 | 58.9% | 61.4% | 54.7% – 67.8% |
| 105 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 30 | 56.7% | 61.3% | 54.0% – 68.4% |
| 106 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 40 | 57.5% | 61.2% | 54.2% – 68.1% |
| 107 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 132 | 59.9% | 61.1% | 55.7% – 66.4% |
| 108 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 42 | 57.1% | 61.1% | 54.1% – 67.8% |
| 109 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 83 | 59.0% | 61.0% | 54.9% – 67.0% |
| 110 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | 106 | 59.4% | 61.0% | 55.3% – 66.6% |
| 111 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 29 | 55.2% | 61.0% | 53.6% – 68.2% |
| 112 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 34 | 55.9% | 61.0% | 53.8% – 68.0% |
| 113 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 87 | 58.6% | 60.8% | 54.7% – 66.7% |
| 114 | Keelan Doss◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 60.8% | 52.9% – 68.4% |
| 115 | Ronnie Bell◦ provisional | SF | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 60.8% | 52.9% – 68.4% |
| 116 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 52.2% | 60.7% | 53.2% – 68.0% |
| 117 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 56 | 57.1% | 60.7% | 54.0% – 67.2% |
| 118 | Skyy Moore◦ provisional | KC | WR | 38 | 55.3% | 60.6% | 53.5% – 67.5% |
| 119 | Xavier Gipson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 38 | 55.3% | 60.6% | 53.5% – 67.5% |
| 120 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 60.6% | 52.9% – 68.0% |
| 121 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 60.5% | 53.0% – 67.8% |
| 122 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 68 | 57.4% | 60.5% | 54.1% – 66.8% |
| 123 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 30 | 53.3% | 60.5% | 53.2% – 67.6% |
| 124 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 30 | 53.3% | 60.5% | 53.2% – 67.6% |
| 125 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NE | WR | 12 | 41.7% | 60.4% | 52.4% – 68.1% |
| 126 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 22 | 50.0% | 60.4% | 52.8% – 67.8% |
| 127 | Tyler Scott◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 32 | 53.1% | 60.3% | 53.1% – 67.4% |
| 128 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 67 | 56.7% | 60.3% | 53.8% – 66.5% |
| 129 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | 175 | 58.9% | 60.2% | 55.3% – 65.1% |
| 130 | Trey Palmer◦ provisional | TB | WR | 69 | 56.5% | 60.1% | 53.7% – 66.4% |
| 131 | Jalen Guyton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.0% | 52.4% – 67.5% |
| 132 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 137 | 57.7% | 59.8% | 54.4% – 65.0% |
| 133 | Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 104 | 56.7% | 59.6% | 53.8% – 65.3% |
| 134 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 64 | 54.7% | 59.5% | 53.0% – 65.9% |
| 135 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 59.5% | 51.9% – 66.9% |
| 136 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 76 | 55.3% | 59.4% | 53.1% – 65.6% |
| 137 | Samori Toure◦ provisional | GB | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 59.3% | 51.6% – 66.8% |
| 138 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 59.3% | 51.6% – 66.8% |
| 139 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 53 | 52.8% | 59.2% | 52.4% – 65.8% |
| 140 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 82 | 54.9% | 59.1% | 52.9% – 65.1% |
| 141 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 58.9% | 50.9% – 66.6% |
| 142 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 64 | 53.1% | 58.9% | 52.3% – 65.3% |
| 143 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | KC | WR | 42 | 50.0% | 58.8% | 51.8% – 65.7% |
| 144 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 168 | 56.5% | 58.8% | 53.7% – 63.7% |
| 145 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 66 | 53.0% | 58.8% | 52.3% – 65.1% |
| 146 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 119 | 55.5% | 58.7% | 53.1% – 64.2% |
| 147 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 75 | 53.3% | 58.6% | 52.3% – 64.8% |
| 148 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 53 | 50.9% | 58.5% | 51.7% – 65.1% |
| 149 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | 130 | 55.4% | 58.5% | 53.0% – 63.9% |
| 150 | Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 137 | 55.5% | 58.4% | 53.1% – 63.7% |
| 151 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 21 | 38.1% | 58.3% | 50.6% – 65.8% |
| 152 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 61 | 50.8% | 58.1% | 51.5% – 64.5% |
| 153 | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | WR | 137 | 54.7% | 58.0% | 52.6% – 63.3% |
| 154 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | 47.7% | 58.0% | 51.0% – 64.8% |
| 155 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 15 | 26.7% | 57.8% | 49.9% – 65.5% |
| 156 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 43 | 46.5% | 57.6% | 50.6% – 64.5% |
| 157 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 49 | 46.9% | 57.3% | 50.4% – 64.1% |
| 158 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 65 | 49.2% | 57.2% | 50.7% – 63.6% |
| 159 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 27.8% | 57.1% | 49.3% – 64.8% |
| 160 | Jonathan Mingo◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 85 | 50.6% | 57.0% | 50.8% – 63.0% |
| 161 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 23 | 30.4% | 56.4% | 48.8% – 63.9% |
| 162 | Marquise Brown | ARI | WR | 104 | 49.0% | 55.5% | 49.7% – 61.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).