NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2022
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 202
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2022 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 102 | 66.7% | 56.2% | 51.5% – 60.9% |
| 2 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 110 | 64.5% | 55.7% | 51.1% – 60.3% |
| 3 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 117 | 62.4% | 55.1% | 50.5% – 59.7% |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 154 | 60.4% | 55.0% | 50.7% – 59.3% |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown◦ provisional | DET | WR | 146 | 60.3% | 54.9% | 50.4% – 59.2% |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 185 | 58.9% | 54.8% | 50.6% – 58.9% |
| 7 | Richie James◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 70 | 62.9% | 54.0% | 49.0% – 59.0% |
| 8 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 145 | 57.9% | 53.9% | 49.5% – 58.2% |
| 9 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 85 | 60.0% | 53.6% | 48.8% – 58.4% |
| 10 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 170 | 56.5% | 53.5% | 49.2% – 57.7% |
| 11 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 49 | 63.3% | 53.3% | 48.1% – 58.5% |
| 12 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 93 | 58.1% | 53.2% | 48.4% – 57.9% |
| 13 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 120 | 56.7% | 53.1% | 48.5% – 57.6% |
| 14 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 120 | 56.7% | 53.1% | 48.5% – 57.6% |
| 15 | CeeDee Lamb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 156 | 55.8% | 53.0% | 48.7% – 57.4% |
| 16 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 66.7% | 52.8% | 47.4% – 58.2% |
| 17 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 118 | 55.9% | 52.8% | 48.2% – 57.4% |
| 18 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 122 | 55.7% | 52.7% | 48.2% – 57.3% |
| 19 | Ja'Marr Chase◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 134 | 55.2% | 52.6% | 48.2% – 57.1% |
| 20 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 52.6% | 47.1% – 58.1% |
| 21 | Ashton Dulin◦ provisional | IND | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 52.6% | 47.1% – 58.1% |
| 22 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | NE | WR | 47 | 59.6% | 52.6% | 47.3% – 57.8% |
| 23 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 49 | 59.2% | 52.5% | 47.3% – 57.7% |
| 24 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | TB | WR | 72 | 56.9% | 52.5% | 47.5% – 57.5% |
| 25 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 114 | 55.3% | 52.5% | 47.9% – 57.1% |
| 26 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 34 | 61.8% | 52.5% | 47.1% – 57.8% |
| 27 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 21 | 66.7% | 52.4% | 46.9% – 57.9% |
| 28 | Trenton Irwin◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 52.4% | 46.9% – 57.9% |
| 29 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 31 | 61.3% | 52.3% | 46.9% – 57.7% |
| 30 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 98 | 55.1% | 52.3% | 47.5% – 57.0% |
| 31 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 59 | 55.9% | 52.1% | 47.0% – 57.1% |
| 32 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 65 | 55.4% | 52.0% | 47.0% – 57.0% |
| 33 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 90 | 54.4% | 52.0% | 47.2% – 56.8% |
| 34 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 50 | 56.0% | 51.9% | 46.8% – 57.1% |
| 35 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 52 | 55.8% | 51.9% | 46.8% – 57.1% |
| 36 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 56 | 55.4% | 51.9% | 46.8% – 57.0% |
| 37 | Skyy Moore◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 51.9% | 46.5% – 57.2% |
| 38 | Drake London◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 118 | 53.4% | 51.8% | 47.2% – 56.4% |
| 39 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 101 | 53.5% | 51.8% | 47.0% – 56.5% |
| 40 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 18 | 61.1% | 51.8% | 46.2% – 57.3% |
| 41 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 109 | 53.2% | 51.7% | 47.1% – 56.4% |
| 42 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 55.9% | 51.6% | 46.3% – 57.0% |
| 43 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 71 | 53.5% | 51.6% | 46.6% – 56.6% |
| 44 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 51.6% | 46.0% – 57.2% |
| 45 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 145 | 52.4% | 51.5% | 47.1% – 56.0% |
| 46 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 51.5% | 46.0% – 57.0% |
| 47 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 89 | 52.8% | 51.5% | 46.7% – 56.3% |
| 48 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 55.6% | 51.5% | 46.1% – 56.9% |
| 49 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 64 | 53.1% | 51.5% | 46.4% – 56.5% |
| 50 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 31 | 54.8% | 51.4% | 46.1% – 56.8% |
| 51 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 134 | 52.2% | 51.4% | 47.0% – 55.9% |
| 52 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 66 | 53.0% | 51.4% | 46.4% – 56.5% |
| 53 | Kendall Hinton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 33 | 54.5% | 51.4% | 46.1% – 56.8% |
| 54 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 142 | 52.1% | 51.4% | 47.0% – 55.8% |
| 55 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 51 | 52.9% | 51.3% | 46.2% – 56.5% |
| 56 | River Cracraft◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 57.1% | 51.3% | 45.7% – 56.9% |
| 57 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 51.3% | 45.8% – 56.9% |
| 58 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 133 | 51.9% | 51.3% | 46.8% – 55.8% |
| 59 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | LV | WR | 94 | 52.1% | 51.3% | 46.5% – 56.1% |
| 60 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 96 | 52.1% | 51.3% | 46.5% – 56.0% |
| 61 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | NE | WR | 98 | 52.0% | 51.3% | 46.6% – 56.0% |
| 62 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 108 | 51.8% | 51.2% | 46.6% – 55.9% |
| 63 | Laviska Shenault Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 53.1% | 51.2% | 45.9% – 56.6% |
| 64 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | 52.5% | 51.2% | 45.9% – 56.5% |
| 65 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 42 | 52.4% | 51.2% | 45.9% – 56.4% |
| 66 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 48 | 52.1% | 51.1% | 46.0% – 56.3% |
| 67 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 142 | 51.4% | 51.1% | 46.7% – 55.5% |
| 68 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 51.1% | 45.5% – 56.7% |
| 69 | Tom Kennedy◦ provisional | DET | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 51.1% | 45.5% – 56.7% |
| 70 | David Sills◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 51.1% | 45.5% – 56.6% |
| 71 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | SF | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.5% |
| 72 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 51.0% | 45.8% – 56.1% |
| 73 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 61 | 50.8% | 50.9% | 45.8% – 56.0% |
| 74 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | 50.8% | 50.9% | 45.9% – 55.9% |
| 75 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 128 | 50.8% | 50.9% | 46.4% – 55.4% |
| 76 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | KC | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.3% – 56.4% |
| 77 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 81 | 50.6% | 50.8% | 46.0% – 55.7% |
| 78 | George Pickens◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 85 | 50.6% | 50.8% | 46.0% – 55.7% |
| 79 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 109 | 50.5% | 50.8% | 46.1% – 55.4% |
| 80 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 44 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.5% – 56.0% |
| 81 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | DET | WR | 52 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 45.6% – 55.9% |
| 82 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 62 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 45.6% – 55.8% |
| 83 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 50.6% | 45.0% – 56.2% |
| 84 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 92 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.9% – 55.4% |
| 85 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.2% |
| 86 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 98 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.9% – 55.4% |
| 87 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.1% |
| 88 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.1% |
| 89 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 63 | 49.2% | 50.5% | 45.5% – 55.6% |
| 90 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 91 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 45.7% – 55.3% |
| 91 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 137 | 49.6% | 50.4% | 45.9% – 54.9% |
| 92 | Amari Rodgers◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | 46.2% | 50.4% | 45.0% – 55.8% |
| 93 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 32 | 46.9% | 50.4% | 45.0% – 55.7% |
| 94 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 100 | 49.0% | 50.3% | 45.6% – 55.0% |
| 95 | Dee Eskridge◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 38.5% | 50.2% | 44.6% – 55.8% |
| 96 | Kyle Philips◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 13 | 38.5% | 50.2% | 44.6% – 55.8% |
| 97 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | LV | WR | 21 | 42.9% | 50.2% | 44.7% – 55.7% |
| 98 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 51 | 47.1% | 50.1% | 45.0% – 55.3% |
| 99 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 75 | 48.0% | 50.1% | 45.2% – 55.1% |
| 100 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 93 | 48.4% | 50.1% | 45.4% – 54.9% |
| 101 | Garrett Wilson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 147 | 49.0% | 50.1% | 45.7% – 54.5% |
| 102 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 64 | 46.9% | 50.0% | 44.9% – 55.0% |
| 103 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 32 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 44.6% – 55.3% |
| 104 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 28 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 44.5% – 55.4% |
| 105 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 54 | 46.3% | 50.0% | 44.8% – 55.1% |
| 106 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | 38.9% | 49.9% | 44.4% – 55.5% |
| 107 | KJ Hamler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 49.9% | 44.4% – 55.5% |
| 108 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 49.9% | 44.4% – 55.5% |
| 109 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | KC | WR | 81 | 46.9% | 49.8% | 44.9% – 54.7% |
| 110 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 67 | 46.3% | 49.8% | 44.8% – 54.8% |
| 111 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | TB | WR | 43 | 44.2% | 49.8% | 44.5% – 55.0% |
| 112 | David Bell◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 35 | 42.9% | 49.7% | 44.4% – 55.1% |
| 113 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 49.7% | 44.2% – 55.3% |
| 114 | James Proche◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 49.7% | 44.2% – 55.3% |
| 115 | Michael Bandy◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 21 | 38.1% | 49.7% | 44.2% – 55.2% |
| 116 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 94 | 46.8% | 49.6% | 44.9% – 54.4% |
| 117 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 50 | 44.0% | 49.5% | 44.4% – 54.7% |
| 118 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 40 | 42.5% | 49.5% | 44.3% – 54.8% |
| 119 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 49.5% | 44.2% – 54.8% |
| 120 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 41.2% | 49.5% | 44.2% – 54.9% |
| 121 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 93 | 46.2% | 49.5% | 44.7% – 54.2% |
| 122 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 79 | 45.6% | 49.4% | 44.5% – 54.3% |
| 123 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 75 | 45.3% | 49.4% | 44.5% – 54.4% |
| 124 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 25 | 36.0% | 49.3% | 43.8% – 54.7% |
| 125 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 49.3% | 43.8% – 54.8% |
| 126 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 49.3% | 43.8% – 54.8% |
| 127 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 149 | 47.0% | 49.3% | 44.9% – 53.6% |
| 128 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 78 | 44.9% | 49.2% | 44.3% – 54.1% |
| 129 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 74 | 44.6% | 49.2% | 44.3% – 54.2% |
| 130 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 74 | 44.6% | 49.2% | 44.3% – 54.2% |
| 131 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 66 | 43.9% | 49.2% | 44.2% – 54.2% |
| 132 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 43.8% | 49.2% | 44.2% – 54.2% |
| 133 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 40 | 40.0% | 49.1% | 43.9% – 54.4% |
| 134 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 32 | 37.5% | 49.1% | 43.7% – 54.5% |
| 135 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 65 | 43.1% | 49.0% | 44.0% – 54.0% |
| 136 | Brandon Johnson◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 21.4% | 49.0% | 43.4% – 54.6% |
| 137 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 35 | 37.1% | 48.9% | 43.6% – 54.2% |
| 138 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 19 | 26.3% | 48.8% | 43.3% – 54.3% |
| 139 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 24 | 29.2% | 48.6% | 43.2% – 54.1% |
| 140 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 107 | 43.9% | 48.5% | 43.8% – 53.2% |
| 141 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 56 | 39.3% | 48.4% | 43.3% – 53.5% |
| 142 | Shi Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 42 | 35.7% | 48.3% | 43.1% – 53.6% |
| 143 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | LV | WR | 181 | 45.3% | 48.3% | 44.1% – 52.5% |
| 144 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 61 | 39.3% | 48.2% | 43.2% – 53.3% |
| 145 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 49 | 36.7% | 48.2% | 43.0% – 53.3% |
| 146 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 93 | 41.9% | 48.1% | 43.3% – 52.9% |
| 147 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 44 | 34.1% | 47.9% | 42.7% – 53.2% |
| 148 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 118 | 42.4% | 47.8% | 43.2% – 52.4% |
| 149 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | NE | WR | 45 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 42.5% – 52.9% |
| 150 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 42 | 30.9% | 47.5% | 42.3% – 52.8% |
| 151 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 53 | 34.0% | 47.4% | 42.3% – 52.5% |
| 152 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 51 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 42.2% – 52.5% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).