NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2022
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 96
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2022 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richie James◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 70 | 81.4% | 71.1% | 65.1% – 76.7% |
| 2 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 81.3% | 70.6% | 64.5% – 76.4% |
| 3 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 102 | 76.5% | 70.2% | 64.7% – 75.4% |
| 4 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 98 | 76.5% | 70.1% | 64.6% – 75.4% |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 146 | 72.6% | 69.0% | 64.0% – 73.8% |
| 6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 84.4% | 68.7% | 61.8% – 75.3% |
| 7 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 89 | 74.2% | 68.6% | 62.9% – 74.1% |
| 8 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 145 | 71.7% | 68.4% | 63.4% – 73.3% |
| 9 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 34 | 82.3% | 68.4% | 61.6% – 75.0% |
| 10 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 117 | 71.8% | 68.0% | 62.7% – 73.2% |
| 11 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 170 | 70.0% | 67.7% | 62.9% – 72.3% |
| 12 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 154 | 70.1% | 67.6% | 62.6% – 72.4% |
| 13 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 49 | 75.5% | 67.5% | 61.0% – 73.8% |
| 14 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 49 | 75.5% | 67.5% | 61.0% – 73.8% |
| 15 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 64 | 73.4% | 67.5% | 61.3% – 73.4% |
| 16 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 185 | 69.2% | 67.2% | 62.6% – 71.8% |
| 17 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 142 | 69.7% | 67.2% | 62.1% – 72.1% |
| 18 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 56 | 73.2% | 67.1% | 60.7% – 73.2% |
| 19 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 137 | 69.3% | 66.9% | 61.8% – 71.9% |
| 20 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 156 | 68.6% | 66.6% | 61.7% – 71.5% |
| 21 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | TB | WR | 72 | 70.8% | 66.6% | 60.5% – 72.5% |
| 22 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 48 | 72.9% | 66.6% | 60.0% – 72.9% |
| 23 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | 70.8% | 66.4% | 60.2% – 72.4% |
| 24 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 32 | 75.0% | 66.4% | 59.4% – 73.1% |
| 25 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | KC | WR | 20 | 80.0% | 66.3% | 59.0% – 73.4% |
| 26 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 114 | 68.4% | 66.2% | 60.7% – 71.4% |
| 27 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 93 | 68.8% | 66.1% | 60.4% – 71.7% |
| 28 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 73.5% | 66.1% | 59.2% – 72.8% |
| 29 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 66.1% | 59.1% – 72.8% |
| 30 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 66.1% | 59.1% – 72.8% |
| 31 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 19 | 79.0% | 66.0% | 58.6% – 73.1% |
| 32 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 98 | 68.4% | 66.0% | 60.3% – 71.4% |
| 33 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 51 | 70.6% | 65.9% | 59.4% – 72.2% |
| 34 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 92 | 68.5% | 65.9% | 60.2% – 71.5% |
| 35 | Kendall Hinton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 33 | 72.7% | 65.8% | 58.8% – 72.5% |
| 36 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 85 | 68.2% | 65.7% | 59.8% – 71.4% |
| 37 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 93 | 67.7% | 65.6% | 59.8% – 71.2% |
| 38 | Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 122 | 67.2% | 65.6% | 60.2% – 70.8% |
| 39 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 110 | 67.3% | 65.5% | 60.0% – 70.9% |
| 40 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 100 | 67.0% | 65.3% | 59.6% – 70.8% |
| 41 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | 72.7% | 65.2% | 57.9% – 72.3% |
| 42 | Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 108 | 66.7% | 65.2% | 59.6% – 70.6% |
| 43 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 50 | 68.0% | 65.0% | 58.4% – 71.4% |
| 44 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 90 | 66.7% | 65.0% | 59.2% – 70.7% |
| 45 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 65.0% | 57.8% – 71.9% |
| 46 | David Bell◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 35 | 68.6% | 64.8% | 57.9% – 71.5% |
| 47 | DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | WR | 98 | 65.3% | 64.4% | 58.7% – 70.0% |
| 48 | Ashton Dulin◦ provisional | IND | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 64.3% | 57.0% – 71.4% |
| 49 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 134 | 64.9% | 64.3% | 59.1% – 69.4% |
| 50 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | NE | WR | 47 | 66.0% | 64.3% | 57.6% – 70.8% |
| 51 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 61 | 65.6% | 64.3% | 57.9% – 70.5% |
| 52 | Skyy Moore◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | 66.7% | 64.3% | 57.2% – 71.1% |
| 53 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 69.2% | 64.1% | 56.5% – 71.5% |
| 54 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 74 | 64.9% | 64.1% | 57.9% – 70.0% |
| 55 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 71 | 64.8% | 64.0% | 57.8% – 70.0% |
| 56 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 56.5% – 71.2% |
| 57 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 65 | 64.6% | 63.9% | 57.6% – 70.0% |
| 58 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 51 | 64.7% | 63.9% | 57.3% – 70.3% |
| 59 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 62 | 64.5% | 63.9% | 57.5% – 70.0% |
| 60 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 109 | 64.2% | 63.9% | 58.3% – 69.3% |
| 61 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 120 | 64.2% | 63.8% | 58.4% – 69.2% |
| 62 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 59 | 64.4% | 63.8% | 57.4% – 70.1% |
| 63 | Trenton Irwin◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 63.8% | 56.4% – 70.9% |
| 64 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 42 | 64.3% | 63.7% | 56.9% – 70.3% |
| 65 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 75 | 64.0% | 63.7% | 57.6% – 69.7% |
| 66 | David Sills◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 63.6% | 56.1% – 70.9% |
| 67 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 61 | 63.9% | 63.6% | 57.2% – 69.8% |
| 68 | River Cracraft◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 63.6% | 55.9% – 71.0% |
| 69 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 118 | 63.6% | 63.5% | 58.0% – 68.8% |
| 70 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | 96 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 57.7% – 69.1% |
| 71 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 52 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 56.9% – 69.9% |
| 72 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 142 | 63.4% | 63.4% | 58.2% – 68.5% |
| 73 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 16 | 62.5% | 63.3% | 55.7% – 70.7% |
| 74 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 63.2% | 55.5% – 70.7% |
| 75 | Kyle Philips◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 63.2% | 55.5% – 70.7% |
| 76 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | 62.5% | 63.2% | 56.3% – 69.9% |
| 77 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 63.2% | 55.7% – 70.4% |
| 78 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 67 | 62.7% | 63.1% | 56.8% – 69.3% |
| 79 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 56 | 62.5% | 63.1% | 56.6% – 69.4% |
| 80 | Amari Rodgers◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | 61.5% | 63.0% | 55.8% – 70.1% |
| 81 | Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 134 | 62.7% | 63.0% | 57.7% – 68.2% |
| 82 | Marquise Brown | ARI | WR | 107 | 62.6% | 63.0% | 57.4% – 68.5% |
| 83 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 63.0% | 55.6% – 70.1% |
| 84 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 66 | 62.1% | 62.9% | 56.6% – 69.1% |
| 85 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 54 | 61.1% | 62.6% | 56.0% – 69.0% |
| 86 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 62.5% | 55.3% – 69.6% |
| 87 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 93 | 61.3% | 62.4% | 56.5% – 68.1% |
| 88 | George Pickens◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 85 | 61.2% | 62.4% | 56.4% – 68.2% |
| 89 | Dee Eskridge◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 62.3% | 54.6% – 69.8% |
| 90 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 47 | 59.6% | 62.2% | 55.4% – 68.7% |
| 91 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 62.1% | 54.7% – 69.3% |
| 92 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 118 | 61.0% | 62.1% | 56.6% – 67.5% |
| 93 | Tom Kennedy◦ provisional | DET | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 62.1% | 54.4% – 69.5% |
| 94 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | LV | WR | 94 | 60.6% | 62.1% | 56.2% – 67.8% |
| 95 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | SF | WR | 25 | 56.0% | 61.9% | 54.5% – 69.0% |
| 96 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 61.9% | 54.3% – 69.3% |
| 97 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 51 | 58.8% | 61.9% | 55.2% – 68.3% |
| 98 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 145 | 60.7% | 61.8% | 56.6% – 66.9% |
| 99 | KJ Hamler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 54.0% – 69.2% |
| 100 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 40 | 57.5% | 61.7% | 54.8% – 68.5% |
| 101 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 53 | 58.5% | 61.7% | 55.1% – 68.1% |
| 102 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 32 | 56.3% | 61.7% | 54.5% – 68.6% |
| 103 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 61.6% | 54.2% – 68.8% |
| 104 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 128 | 60.2% | 61.6% | 56.2% – 66.8% |
| 105 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 94 | 59.6% | 61.5% | 55.7% – 67.3% |
| 106 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 120 | 60.0% | 61.5% | 56.0% – 66.9% |
| 107 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | DET | WR | 52 | 57.7% | 61.4% | 54.8% – 67.9% |
| 108 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 61.4% | 53.6% – 68.9% |
| 109 | Allen Lazard | GB | WR | 101 | 59.4% | 61.4% | 55.6% – 67.0% |
| 110 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 28 | 53.6% | 61.2% | 53.9% – 68.3% |
| 111 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 38 | 55.3% | 61.1% | 54.1% – 68.0% |
| 112 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | TB | WR | 43 | 55.8% | 61.1% | 54.2% – 67.8% |
| 113 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 79 | 58.2% | 61.1% | 55.0% – 67.1% |
| 114 | James Proche◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 61.0% | 53.3% – 68.4% |
| 115 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 109 | 58.7% | 60.9% | 55.3% – 66.5% |
| 116 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 91 | 58.2% | 60.9% | 55.0% – 66.7% |
| 117 | Brandon Johnson◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 60.8% | 53.1% – 68.3% |
| 118 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 60.8% | 54.4% – 67.1% |
| 119 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 60.8% | 53.2% – 68.2% |
| 120 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 75 | 57.3% | 60.8% | 54.6% – 66.8% |
| 121 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | 133 | 58.7% | 60.7% | 55.3% – 65.9% |
| 122 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 44 | 54.5% | 60.7% | 53.8% – 67.3% |
| 123 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | LV | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 124 | Michael Bandy◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 125 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 126 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 60.5% | 52.8% – 67.9% |
| 127 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 66 | 56.1% | 60.4% | 54.0% – 66.7% |
| 128 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 81 | 56.8% | 60.4% | 54.3% – 66.4% |
| 129 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 63 | 55.6% | 60.3% | 53.9% – 66.6% |
| 130 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 35 | 51.4% | 60.2% | 53.1% – 67.2% |
| 131 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 32 | 50.0% | 60.1% | 52.9% – 67.1% |
| 132 | Shi Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 42 | 52.4% | 60.1% | 53.1% – 66.8% |
| 133 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 149 | 57.7% | 60.0% | 54.8% – 65.1% |
| 134 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 59.9% | 52.1% – 67.5% |
| 135 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 40 | 50.0% | 59.5% | 52.5% – 66.3% |
| 136 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 25 | 44.0% | 59.4% | 52.0% – 66.7% |
| 137 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 147 | 56.5% | 59.2% | 54.0% – 64.4% |
| 138 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 59.2% | 51.5% – 66.7% |
| 139 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 50 | 50.0% | 58.8% | 52.1% – 65.5% |
| 140 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | NE | WR | 45 | 48.9% | 58.8% | 51.9% – 65.5% |
| 141 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 74 | 52.7% | 58.8% | 52.5% – 64.9% |
| 142 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 23 | 39.1% | 58.7% | 51.2% – 66.1% |
| 143 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 78 | 52.6% | 58.6% | 52.4% – 64.6% |
| 144 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 49 | 49.0% | 58.6% | 51.8% – 65.2% |
| 145 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 44.1% | 58.4% | 51.2% – 65.4% |
| 146 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | KC | WR | 81 | 51.8% | 58.1% | 52.0% – 64.2% |
| 147 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | 181 | 55.3% | 58.1% | 53.2% – 62.9% |
| 148 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 64 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 51.6% – 64.4% |
| 149 | DJ Moore | CAR | WR | 118 | 53.4% | 57.9% | 52.3% – 63.4% |
| 150 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 42 | 45.2% | 57.9% | 50.9% – 64.7% |
| 151 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 44 | 45.5% | 57.8% | 50.9% – 64.6% |
| 152 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 93 | 51.6% | 57.6% | 51.7% – 63.5% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).