NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2021
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 174
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2021 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 192 | 63.0% | 57.3% | 53.0% – 61.6% |
| 2 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 70 | 68.6% | 56.1% | 50.8% – 61.3% |
| 3 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 111 | 64.0% | 56.1% | 51.2% – 60.9% |
| 4 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 127 | 61.4% | 55.4% | 50.7% – 60.1% |
| 5 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | GB | WR | 169 | 59.8% | 55.3% | 50.9% – 59.7% |
| 6 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 159 | 59.1% | 54.9% | 50.4% – 59.4% |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown◦ provisional | DET | WR | 121 | 59.5% | 54.5% | 49.7% – 59.3% |
| 8 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 140 | 58.6% | 54.4% | 49.8% – 59.0% |
| 9 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 130 | 58.5% | 54.2% | 49.5% – 58.9% |
| 10 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 70 | 61.4% | 54.0% | 48.8% – 59.2% |
| 11 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 60 | 61.7% | 53.8% | 48.4% – 59.1% |
| 12 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 103 | 58.3% | 53.7% | 48.8% – 58.6% |
| 13 | James Proche◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 20 | 75.0% | 53.5% | 47.6% – 59.4% |
| 14 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 114 | 57.0% | 53.4% | 48.5% – 58.2% |
| 15 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 129 | 56.6% | 53.4% | 48.7% – 58.1% |
| 16 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 60 | 60.0% | 53.3% | 47.9% – 58.7% |
| 17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 62 | 59.7% | 53.3% | 47.9% – 58.6% |
| 18 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 94 | 57.5% | 53.3% | 48.3% – 58.3% |
| 19 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 59.4% | 53.3% | 47.9% – 58.6% |
| 20 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 85 | 57.6% | 53.2% | 48.1% – 58.3% |
| 21 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 164 | 54.9% | 52.9% | 48.4% – 57.4% |
| 22 | Justin Jefferson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 170 | 54.7% | 52.8% | 48.4% – 57.3% |
| 23 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 57 | 57.9% | 52.7% | 47.3% – 58.1% |
| 24 | Brandon Zylstra◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 25 | 64.0% | 52.6% | 46.8% – 58.5% |
| 25 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 105 | 55.2% | 52.6% | 47.7% – 57.5% |
| 26 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 48 | 58.3% | 52.6% | 47.1% – 58.1% |
| 27 | Ja'Marr Chase◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 128 | 54.7% | 52.6% | 47.8% – 57.3% |
| 28 | Cyril Grayson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 12 | 75.0% | 52.6% | 46.5% – 58.6% |
| 29 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 39 | 59.0% | 52.5% | 46.8% – 58.1% |
| 30 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | SF | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 52.4% | 46.6% – 58.2% |
| 31 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 26 | 61.5% | 52.4% | 46.6% – 58.2% |
| 32 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 51 | 56.9% | 52.3% | 46.9% – 57.8% |
| 33 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | NE | WR | 128 | 53.9% | 52.3% | 47.5% – 57.0% |
| 34 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | NO | WR | 19 | 63.2% | 52.2% | 46.3% – 58.1% |
| 35 | Kendall Hinton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 52.2% | 46.3% – 58.0% |
| 36 | Jalen Guyton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 48 | 56.3% | 52.1% | 46.6% – 57.6% |
| 37 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 73 | 54.8% | 52.1% | 46.9% – 57.4% |
| 38 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 104 | 53.8% | 52.1% | 47.1% – 57.0% |
| 39 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 83 | 54.2% | 52.0% | 46.9% – 57.2% |
| 40 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 158 | 53.2% | 52.0% | 47.5% – 56.5% |
| 41 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 37 | 56.8% | 52.0% | 46.4% – 57.7% |
| 42 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 39 | 56.4% | 52.0% | 46.4% – 57.6% |
| 43 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 49 | 55.1% | 51.9% | 46.4% – 57.4% |
| 44 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 49 | 55.1% | 51.9% | 46.4% – 57.4% |
| 45 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 134 | 53.0% | 51.9% | 47.2% – 56.5% |
| 46 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 113 | 53.1% | 51.8% | 47.0% – 56.7% |
| 47 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 86 | 53.5% | 51.8% | 46.7% – 56.9% |
| 48 | Henry Ruggs III◦ provisional | LV | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 51.8% | 46.1% – 57.5% |
| 49 | CeeDee Lamb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 121 | 52.9% | 51.8% | 47.0% – 56.6% |
| 50 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 73 | 53.4% | 51.7% | 46.5% – 57.0% |
| 51 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 51.7% | 45.8% – 57.5% |
| 52 | Quintez Cephus◦ provisional | DET | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 51.7% | 45.8% – 57.5% |
| 53 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 93 | 52.7% | 51.6% | 46.6% – 56.6% |
| 54 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 53.1% | 51.6% | 46.3% – 56.9% |
| 55 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 68 | 52.9% | 51.6% | 46.3% – 56.8% |
| 56 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 43 | 53.5% | 51.5% | 45.9% – 57.1% |
| 57 | Malik Turner◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 51.5% | 45.5% – 57.4% |
| 58 | John Ross◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 20 | 55.0% | 51.4% | 45.5% – 57.3% |
| 59 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 67 | 52.2% | 51.4% | 46.1% – 56.6% |
| 60 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 71 | 52.1% | 51.3% | 46.1% – 56.6% |
| 61 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 38 | 52.6% | 51.3% | 45.7% – 56.9% |
| 62 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 130 | 51.5% | 51.2% | 46.5% – 56.0% |
| 63 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 95 | 51.6% | 51.2% | 46.2% – 56.2% |
| 64 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 51.2% | 45.2% – 57.1% |
| 65 | Antonio Brown◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | 51.6% | 51.2% | 45.8% – 56.5% |
| 66 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 105 | 51.4% | 51.2% | 46.3% – 56.1% |
| 67 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 70 | 51.4% | 51.1% | 45.9% – 56.4% |
| 68 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 57 | 50.9% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.4% |
| 69 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 108 | 50.9% | 51.0% | 46.1% – 55.9% |
| 70 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 59 | 50.8% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.4% |
| 71 | Deonte Harty◦ provisional | NO | WR | 59 | 50.8% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.4% |
| 72 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 63 | 50.8% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.3% |
| 73 | Penny Hart◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 44.9% – 57.0% |
| 74 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 22 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.0% – 56.8% |
| 75 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | LV | WR | 34 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.1% – 56.5% |
| 76 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 95 | 50.5% | 50.8% | 45.8% – 55.9% |
| 77 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 54 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.3% – 56.2% |
| 78 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 121 | 50.4% | 50.8% | 46.0% – 55.5% |
| 79 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 56 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.4% – 56.2% |
| 80 | Juwann Winfree◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.7% |
| 81 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.6% |
| 82 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.6% |
| 83 | Jeff Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.6% |
| 84 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.6% |
| 85 | Collin Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.6% | 44.8% – 56.5% |
| 86 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 50.6% | 44.8% – 56.5% |
| 87 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 39 | 48.7% | 50.6% | 45.0% – 56.2% |
| 88 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 50.6% | 44.9% – 56.3% |
| 89 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 130 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.9% – 55.3% |
| 90 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 49 | 49.0% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.1% |
| 91 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 51 | 49.0% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.0% |
| 92 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 59 | 49.1% | 50.5% | 45.2% – 55.9% |
| 93 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 63 | 49.2% | 50.5% | 45.2% – 55.9% |
| 94 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 73 | 49.3% | 50.5% | 45.3% – 55.7% |
| 95 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 50.4% | 44.4% – 56.4% |
| 96 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 50.4% | 44.5% – 56.3% |
| 97 | Ashton Dulin◦ provisional | IND | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 50.4% | 44.5% – 56.3% |
| 98 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 40 | 47.5% | 50.4% | 44.7% – 56.0% |
| 99 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 40 | 47.5% | 50.4% | 44.7% – 56.0% |
| 100 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 52 | 48.1% | 50.3% | 44.9% – 55.8% |
| 101 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 62 | 48.4% | 50.3% | 45.0% – 55.7% |
| 102 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 60 | 48.3% | 50.3% | 45.0% – 55.7% |
| 103 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 84 | 48.8% | 50.3% | 45.2% – 55.4% |
| 104 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 100 | 49.0% | 50.3% | 45.3% – 55.3% |
| 105 | Laviska Shenault Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 100 | 49.0% | 50.3% | 45.3% – 55.3% |
| 106 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 37 | 46.0% | 50.1% | 44.5% – 55.8% |
| 107 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 41 | 46.3% | 50.1% | 44.5% – 55.7% |
| 108 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | 44.8% | 50.1% | 44.4% – 55.9% |
| 109 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 47 | 46.8% | 50.1% | 44.6% – 55.6% |
| 110 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 120 | 48.3% | 49.9% | 45.1% – 54.7% |
| 111 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 62 | 46.8% | 49.9% | 44.5% – 55.3% |
| 112 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 52 | 46.2% | 49.9% | 44.4% – 55.4% |
| 113 | Bryan Edwards◦ provisional | LV | WR | 60 | 46.7% | 49.9% | 44.5% – 55.3% |
| 114 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 56 | 46.4% | 49.9% | 44.5% – 55.3% |
| 115 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 44 | 45.5% | 49.9% | 44.3% – 55.5% |
| 116 | Antoine Wesley◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 32 | 43.8% | 49.9% | 44.2% – 55.6% |
| 117 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | SF | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 44.0% – 55.8% |
| 118 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 49.9% | 43.9% – 55.8% |
| 119 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 44.0% – 55.8% |
| 120 | Dee Eskridge◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 44.0% – 55.8% |
| 121 | Dax Milne◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 49.9% | 43.9% – 55.9% |
| 122 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 44.0% – 55.8% |
| 123 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 129 | 48.1% | 49.8% | 45.0% – 54.5% |
| 124 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 87 | 47.1% | 49.7% | 44.6% – 54.8% |
| 125 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 77 | 46.8% | 49.7% | 44.5% – 54.9% |
| 126 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 53 | 45.3% | 49.7% | 44.2% – 55.1% |
| 127 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 47 | 44.7% | 49.7% | 44.1% – 55.2% |
| 128 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | 43.2% | 49.6% | 44.0% – 55.3% |
| 129 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 31 | 41.9% | 49.6% | 43.9% – 55.4% |
| 130 | Anthony Schwartz◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 23 | 39.1% | 49.6% | 43.8% – 55.5% |
| 131 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 64 | 45.3% | 49.5% | 44.2% – 54.8% |
| 132 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 44 | 43.2% | 49.4% | 43.9% – 55.0% |
| 133 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 38.5% | 49.4% | 43.6% – 55.2% |
| 134 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 16 | 31.3% | 49.4% | 43.4% – 55.3% |
| 135 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 49.3% | 43.4% – 55.3% |
| 136 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 12 | 25.0% | 49.3% | 43.3% – 55.4% |
| 137 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 164 | 47.6% | 49.3% | 44.9% – 53.8% |
| 138 | Freddie Swain◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 41 | 41.5% | 49.2% | 43.6% – 54.8% |
| 139 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 36.0% | 49.1% | 43.3% – 55.0% |
| 140 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 15 | 26.7% | 49.1% | 43.1% – 55.1% |
| 141 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 89 | 44.9% | 49.0% | 43.9% – 54.0% |
| 142 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | LA | WR | 83 | 44.6% | 48.9% | 43.8% – 54.1% |
| 143 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 28 | 35.7% | 48.9% | 43.1% – 54.7% |
| 144 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | DET | WR | 28 | 35.7% | 48.9% | 43.1% – 54.7% |
| 145 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 65 | 43.1% | 48.9% | 43.5% – 54.2% |
| 146 | Trinity Benson◦ provisional | DET | WR | 22 | 31.8% | 48.9% | 43.0% – 54.7% |
| 147 | Jaelon Darden◦ provisional | TB | WR | 12 | 16.7% | 48.8% | 42.8% – 54.8% |
| 148 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 82 | 43.9% | 48.7% | 43.6% – 53.9% |
| 149 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 78 | 43.6% | 48.7% | 43.5% – 53.9% |
| 150 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 23 | 30.4% | 48.6% | 42.8% – 54.5% |
| 151 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 23 | 30.4% | 48.6% | 42.8% – 54.5% |
| 152 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 141 | 45.4% | 48.5% | 43.9% – 53.1% |
| 153 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 39 | 35.9% | 48.3% | 42.6% – 53.9% |
| 154 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 147 | 44.9% | 48.2% | 43.6% – 52.8% |
| 155 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 57 | 38.6% | 47.9% | 42.6% – 53.4% |
| 156 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 105 | 42.9% | 47.9% | 43.0% – 52.9% |
| 157 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | 21.7% | 47.6% | 41.8% – 53.4% |
| 158 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 35.7% | 47.3% | 41.9% – 52.7% |
| 159 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 69 | 37.7% | 47.2% | 42.0% – 52.5% |
| 160 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 66 | 34.8% | 46.6% | 41.3% – 51.9% |
| 161 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 58 | 32.8% | 46.5% | 41.1% – 51.8% |
| 162 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 173 | 41.6% | 46.3% | 41.9% – 50.7% |
| 163 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 110 | 35.4% | 45.0% | 40.2% – 49.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).