NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2021
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 92
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2021 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 129 | 79.8% | 72.9% | 67.9% – 77.7% |
| 2 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 84.4% | 71.9% | 65.8% – 77.6% |
| 3 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 192 | 75.5% | 71.5% | 67.0% – 75.8% |
| 4 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 127 | 77.2% | 71.3% | 66.2% – 76.2% |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 140 | 74.3% | 69.9% | 64.8% – 74.7% |
| 6 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 70 | 78.6% | 69.8% | 63.8% – 75.6% |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 121 | 74.4% | 69.6% | 64.3% – 74.6% |
| 8 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 22 | 95.5% | 69.4% | 62.2% – 76.3% |
| 9 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 169 | 72.8% | 69.4% | 64.6% – 74.0% |
| 10 | Christian Kirk | ARI | WR | 103 | 74.8% | 69.3% | 63.8% – 74.6% |
| 11 | Cole Beasley | BUF | WR | 113 | 72.6% | 68.4% | 62.9% – 73.6% |
| 12 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 159 | 69.8% | 67.4% | 62.5% – 72.2% |
| 13 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 62 | 72.6% | 67.0% | 60.6% – 73.1% |
| 14 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 83 | 71.1% | 66.9% | 61.0% – 72.7% |
| 15 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 95 | 70.5% | 66.9% | 61.2% – 72.5% |
| 16 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 95 | 70.5% | 66.9% | 61.2% – 72.5% |
| 17 | Russell Gage | ATL | WR | 94 | 70.2% | 66.8% | 61.0% – 72.3% |
| 18 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 65 | 70.8% | 66.3% | 60.0% – 72.4% |
| 19 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 26 | 76.9% | 66.2% | 58.9% – 73.2% |
| 20 | James Proche◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 20 | 80.0% | 66.2% | 58.7% – 73.4% |
| 21 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 73 | 69.9% | 66.1% | 60.0% – 72.1% |
| 22 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 60 | 70.0% | 65.9% | 59.5% – 72.1% |
| 23 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 130 | 67.7% | 65.8% | 60.5% – 71.0% |
| 24 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 39 | 71.8% | 65.8% | 58.8% – 72.4% |
| 25 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 158 | 67.1% | 65.7% | 60.7% – 70.5% |
| 26 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 108 | 67.6% | 65.6% | 60.0% – 71.0% |
| 27 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 47 | 70.2% | 65.6% | 58.8% – 72.0% |
| 28 | Brandin Cooks | HOU | WR | 134 | 67.2% | 65.5% | 60.3% – 70.7% |
| 29 | Cyril Grayson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 12 | 83.3% | 65.5% | 57.7% – 73.0% |
| 30 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 43 | 69.8% | 65.3% | 58.5% – 71.9% |
| 31 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 63 | 68.3% | 65.3% | 58.9% – 71.4% |
| 32 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 57 | 68.4% | 65.2% | 58.7% – 71.5% |
| 33 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 71 | 67.6% | 65.1% | 58.9% – 71.1% |
| 34 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 111 | 66.7% | 65.1% | 59.5% – 70.5% |
| 35 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 68 | 67.7% | 65.1% | 58.8% – 71.2% |
| 36 | Brandon Zylstra◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 25 | 72.0% | 65.1% | 57.7% – 72.2% |
| 37 | Antonio Brown◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | 67.7% | 65.0% | 58.6% – 71.2% |
| 38 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 56 | 67.9% | 65.0% | 58.4% – 71.3% |
| 39 | Malik Turner◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 16 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 57.3% – 72.3% |
| 40 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 53 | 67.9% | 64.9% | 58.3% – 71.3% |
| 41 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 70 | 67.1% | 64.9% | 58.7% – 71.0% |
| 42 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 49 | 67.3% | 64.6% | 57.9% – 71.1% |
| 43 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 60 | 66.7% | 64.6% | 58.1% – 70.8% |
| 44 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 57 | 66.7% | 64.5% | 58.0% – 70.9% |
| 45 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 37 | 67.6% | 64.5% | 57.4% – 71.2% |
| 46 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 121 | 65.3% | 64.4% | 58.9% – 69.7% |
| 47 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 62 | 66.1% | 64.4% | 57.9% – 70.6% |
| 48 | Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 104 | 65.4% | 64.4% | 58.7% – 69.9% |
| 49 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 17 | 70.6% | 64.4% | 56.7% – 71.7% |
| 50 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 39 | 66.7% | 64.2% | 57.2% – 71.0% |
| 51 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 65.6% | 64.2% | 57.8% – 70.4% |
| 52 | Henry Ruggs III◦ provisional | LV | WR | 36 | 66.7% | 64.2% | 57.1% – 71.0% |
| 53 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 128 | 64.8% | 64.2% | 58.8% – 69.4% |
| 54 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 114 | 64.9% | 64.1% | 58.6% – 69.6% |
| 55 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 86 | 65.1% | 64.1% | 58.1% – 69.9% |
| 56 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | NO | WR | 19 | 68.4% | 64.1% | 56.5% – 71.4% |
| 57 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 51 | 64.7% | 63.7% | 57.0% – 70.2% |
| 58 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 63.7% | 55.9% – 71.2% |
| 59 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 48 | 64.6% | 63.7% | 56.9% – 70.2% |
| 60 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | 64.9% | 63.7% | 56.6% – 70.5% |
| 61 | Jalen Guyton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 48 | 64.6% | 63.7% | 56.9% – 70.2% |
| 62 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 70 | 64.3% | 63.7% | 57.4% – 69.8% |
| 63 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 63.6% | 56.1% – 70.8% |
| 64 | Kendall Hinton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 63.6% | 56.1% – 70.8% |
| 65 | Quintez Cephus◦ provisional | DET | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 63.6% | 56.1% – 70.8% |
| 66 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 56 | 64.3% | 63.6% | 57.0% – 70.0% |
| 67 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 39 | 64.1% | 63.5% | 56.5% – 70.3% |
| 68 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF | WR | 121 | 63.6% | 63.4% | 58.0% – 68.8% |
| 69 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 63.4% | 55.7% – 70.9% |
| 70 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 170 | 63.5% | 63.4% | 58.5% – 68.2% |
| 71 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 25 | 64.0% | 63.4% | 55.9% – 70.5% |
| 72 | Dax Milne◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 63.3% | 55.5% – 70.9% |
| 73 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 128 | 63.3% | 63.2% | 57.8% – 68.5% |
| 74 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 38 | 63.2% | 63.2% | 56.1% – 70.0% |
| 75 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | 62.5% | 63.1% | 55.4% – 70.6% |
| 76 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | JAX | WR | 100 | 63.0% | 63.1% | 57.3% – 68.7% |
| 77 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | SF | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 63.1% | 55.6% – 70.3% |
| 78 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 51 | 62.7% | 63.0% | 56.3% – 69.6% |
| 79 | Juwann Winfree◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 63.0% | 55.1% – 70.6% |
| 80 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 164 | 62.8% | 62.9% | 57.9% – 67.8% |
| 81 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 62.9% | 55.8% – 69.8% |
| 82 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 18 | 61.1% | 62.9% | 55.2% – 70.3% |
| 83 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 61.5% | 62.8% | 55.4% – 70.0% |
| 84 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 85 | 62.4% | 62.8% | 56.8% – 68.7% |
| 85 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 39 | 61.5% | 62.7% | 55.7% – 69.5% |
| 86 | Penny Hart◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 62.6% | 54.7% – 70.3% |
| 87 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 41 | 61.0% | 62.5% | 55.5% – 69.3% |
| 88 | Freddie Swain◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 41 | 61.0% | 62.5% | 55.5% – 69.3% |
| 89 | Ashton Dulin◦ provisional | IND | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 62.4% | 54.9% – 69.7% |
| 90 | Marquise Brown | BAL | WR | 147 | 61.9% | 62.4% | 57.2% – 67.5% |
| 91 | Deonte Harty◦ provisional | NO | WR | 59 | 61.0% | 62.4% | 55.8% – 68.7% |
| 92 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 173 | 61.9% | 62.3% | 57.4% – 67.2% |
| 93 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 40 | 60.0% | 62.2% | 55.2% – 69.0% |
| 94 | Antoine Wesley◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 32 | 59.4% | 62.2% | 55.0% – 69.2% |
| 95 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 82 | 61.0% | 62.2% | 56.0% – 68.1% |
| 96 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 37 | 59.5% | 62.1% | 55.0% – 69.0% |
| 97 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | LV | WR | 34 | 58.8% | 62.0% | 54.8% – 69.0% |
| 98 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 105 | 61.0% | 62.0% | 56.3% – 67.6% |
| 99 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 52 | 59.6% | 61.9% | 55.2% – 68.5% |
| 100 | Marvin Jones | JAX | WR | 120 | 60.8% | 61.9% | 56.3% – 67.3% |
| 101 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 49 | 59.2% | 61.8% | 55.0% – 68.4% |
| 102 | John Ross◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 20 | 55.0% | 61.7% | 54.1% – 69.1% |
| 103 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 20 | 55.0% | 61.7% | 54.1% – 69.1% |
| 104 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 53.7% – 69.4% |
| 105 | Jaelon Darden◦ provisional | TB | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 53.7% – 69.4% |
| 106 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 61.6% | 53.8% – 69.1% |
| 107 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 87 | 59.8% | 61.5% | 55.5% – 67.4% |
| 108 | A.J. Brown | TEN | WR | 105 | 60.0% | 61.5% | 55.7% – 67.1% |
| 109 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 66 | 59.1% | 61.5% | 55.0% – 67.8% |
| 110 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 61.5% | 53.6% – 69.1% |
| 111 | Collin Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 21 | 52.4% | 61.2% | 53.6% – 68.6% |
| 112 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 57 | 57.9% | 61.2% | 54.5% – 67.6% |
| 113 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 31 | 54.8% | 61.1% | 53.8% – 68.2% |
| 114 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 54 | 57.4% | 61.1% | 54.4% – 67.6% |
| 115 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 59 | 57.6% | 61.0% | 54.4% – 67.5% |
| 116 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 59 | 57.6% | 61.0% | 54.4% – 67.5% |
| 117 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 64 | 57.8% | 61.0% | 54.5% – 67.3% |
| 118 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 28 | 53.6% | 61.0% | 53.5% – 68.2% |
| 119 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 130 | 59.2% | 60.9% | 55.4% – 66.2% |
| 120 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 60.8% | 53.2% – 68.3% |
| 121 | Dee Eskridge◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 60.8% | 53.2% – 68.3% |
| 122 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 73 | 57.5% | 60.7% | 54.4% – 66.9% |
| 123 | Jeff Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 60.7% | 52.9% – 68.2% |
| 124 | A.J. Green | ARI | WR | 93 | 58.1% | 60.6% | 54.7% – 66.5% |
| 125 | Bryan Edwards◦ provisional | LV | WR | 60 | 56.7% | 60.6% | 54.0% – 67.0% |
| 126 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 60.5% | 52.8% – 68.0% |
| 127 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 100 | 58.0% | 60.5% | 54.6% – 66.2% |
| 128 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 62 | 56.5% | 60.5% | 53.9% – 66.9% |
| 129 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 67 | 56.7% | 60.5% | 54.0% – 66.8% |
| 130 | Mike Williams | LAC | WR | 130 | 58.5% | 60.4% | 55.0% – 65.8% |
| 131 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 44 | 54.5% | 60.4% | 53.4% – 67.2% |
| 132 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 44 | 54.5% | 60.4% | 53.4% – 67.2% |
| 133 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 49 | 55.1% | 60.4% | 53.5% – 67.1% |
| 134 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 129 | 58.1% | 60.3% | 54.8% – 65.6% |
| 135 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 63 | 55.6% | 60.1% | 53.6% – 66.5% |
| 136 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 60 | 55.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% – 66.4% |
| 137 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | SF | WR | 20 | 45.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% – 67.4% |
| 138 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% – 67.3% |
| 139 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 52 | 53.8% | 59.8% | 53.0% – 66.4% |
| 140 | Trinity Benson◦ provisional | DET | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 59.8% | 52.1% – 67.2% |
| 141 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 89 | 56.2% | 59.8% | 53.7% – 65.7% |
| 142 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 69 | 55.1% | 59.7% | 53.3% – 66.0% |
| 143 | Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 141 | 57.5% | 59.7% | 54.4% – 65.0% |
| 144 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | 48.3% | 59.6% | 52.2% – 66.8% |
| 145 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 59.6% | 51.6% – 67.3% |
| 146 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 78 | 55.1% | 59.5% | 53.3% – 65.6% |
| 147 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 73 | 54.8% | 59.5% | 53.1% – 65.7% |
| 148 | Chase Claypool | PIT | WR | 105 | 56.2% | 59.5% | 53.7% – 65.1% |
| 149 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 59.4% | 51.5% – 67.0% |
| 150 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | DET | WR | 28 | 46.4% | 59.3% | 51.8% – 66.5% |
| 151 | Anthony Schwartz◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 59.3% | 51.6% – 66.7% |
| 152 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 40 | 50.0% | 59.2% | 52.1% – 66.1% |
| 153 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 84 | 54.8% | 59.2% | 53.0% – 65.2% |
| 154 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 59.1% | 52.2% – 65.9% |
| 155 | DJ Moore | CAR | WR | 164 | 56.7% | 59.0% | 53.9% – 64.0% |
| 156 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | LA | WR | 83 | 53.0% | 58.4% | 52.2% – 64.4% |
| 157 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 57.5% | 49.9% – 65.0% |
| 158 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 46.4% | 56.9% | 50.1% – 63.5% |
| 159 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 23 | 30.4% | 56.6% | 49.0% – 64.1% |
| 160 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 77 | 48.0% | 56.3% | 50.0% – 62.5% |
| 161 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 58 | 44.8% | 56.1% | 49.4% – 62.7% |
| 162 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | 26.1% | 55.8% | 48.1% – 63.3% |
| 163 | Robbie Chosen | CAR | WR | 110 | 48.2% | 55.0% | 49.2% – 60.7% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).