NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2020
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 63
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2020 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | WR | 97 | 79.4% | 73.7% | 67.8% – 79.2% |
| 2 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 149 | 77.2% | 73.6% | 68.5% – 78.4% |
| 3 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 166 | 76.5% | 73.3% | 68.4% – 78.0% |
| 4 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 34 | 88.2% | 73.1% | 65.5% – 80.2% |
| 5 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 132 | 75.8% | 72.3% | 66.9% – 77.4% |
| 6 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 84 | 77.4% | 72.0% | 65.8% – 78.0% |
| 7 | Cole Beasley | BUF | WR | 108 | 75.9% | 71.9% | 66.1% – 77.4% |
| 8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 129 | 75.2% | 71.8% | 66.4% – 77.0% |
| 9 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 22 | 90.9% | 71.7% | 63.4% – 79.4% |
| 10 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 124 | 74.2% | 71.1% | 65.5% – 76.4% |
| 11 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 41 | 80.5% | 71.1% | 63.6% – 78.1% |
| 12 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 59 | 76.3% | 70.4% | 63.5% – 77.0% |
| 13 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 72 | 75.0% | 70.3% | 63.7% – 76.6% |
| 14 | Emmanuel Sanders | NO | WR | 82 | 74.4% | 70.3% | 63.9% – 76.3% |
| 15 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 68 | 75.0% | 70.2% | 63.4% – 76.5% |
| 16 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 50 | 76.0% | 69.8% | 62.6% – 76.7% |
| 17 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | JAX | WR | 79 | 73.4% | 69.7% | 63.2% – 75.8% |
| 18 | Cameron Batson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 13 | 92.3% | 69.6% | 60.7% – 78.0% |
| 19 | DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | WR | 161 | 71.4% | 69.6% | 64.5% – 74.6% |
| 20 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 110 | 71.8% | 69.3% | 63.4% – 74.9% |
| 21 | Isaiah Wright◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 35 | 77.1% | 69.3% | 61.4% – 76.7% |
| 22 | Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 77 | 72.7% | 69.2% | 62.7% – 75.5% |
| 23 | Deonte Harty◦ provisional | NO | WR | 25 | 80.0% | 69.2% | 60.9% – 77.0% |
| 24 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 44 | 75.0% | 69.1% | 61.6% – 76.2% |
| 25 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 47 | 74.5% | 69.0% | 61.6% – 76.0% |
| 26 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 92 | 71.7% | 69.0% | 62.7% – 74.9% |
| 27 | Lynn Bowden◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 37 | 75.7% | 68.9% | 61.1% – 76.3% |
| 28 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 82 | 72.0% | 68.9% | 62.5% – 75.1% |
| 29 | Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 130 | 70.8% | 68.9% | 63.3% – 74.2% |
| 30 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 101 | 71.3% | 68.8% | 62.8% – 74.7% |
| 31 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 77.8% | 68.8% | 60.6% – 76.5% |
| 32 | Antonio Brown◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | 72.6% | 68.7% | 61.8% – 75.3% |
| 33 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 55 | 72.7% | 68.6% | 61.4% – 75.4% |
| 34 | Tyron Johnson◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 26 | 76.9% | 68.4% | 60.1% – 76.3% |
| 35 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 26 | 76.9% | 68.4% | 60.1% – 76.3% |
| 36 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 92 | 70.7% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.3% |
| 37 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 129 | 69.8% | 68.2% | 62.6% – 73.6% |
| 38 | Will Fuller | HOU | WR | 75 | 70.7% | 68.0% | 61.4% – 74.4% |
| 39 | Robbie Chosen | CAR | WR | 137 | 69.3% | 68.0% | 62.4% – 73.3% |
| 40 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 37 | 73.0% | 67.9% | 60.1% – 75.3% |
| 41 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 46 | 71.7% | 67.8% | 60.3% – 75.0% |
| 42 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 52 | 71.2% | 67.8% | 60.4% – 74.7% |
| 43 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 128 | 68.8% | 67.5% | 61.8% – 73.0% |
| 44 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 17 | 76.5% | 67.4% | 58.6% – 75.7% |
| 45 | Brandin Cooks | HOU | WR | 119 | 68.1% | 67.0% | 61.2% – 72.6% |
| 46 | Allen Robinson | CHI | WR | 151 | 67.5% | 66.8% | 61.4% – 72.0% |
| 47 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 48 | 68.8% | 66.6% | 59.1% – 73.8% |
| 48 | Christian Blake◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 18 | 72.2% | 66.5% | 57.7% – 74.9% |
| 49 | Bryan Edwards◦ provisional | LV | WR | 15 | 73.3% | 66.5% | 57.6% – 75.0% |
| 50 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 149 | 67.1% | 66.5% | 61.1% – 71.7% |
| 51 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 110 | 67.3% | 66.4% | 60.4% – 72.2% |
| 52 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 50 | 68.0% | 66.3% | 58.8% – 73.4% |
| 53 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 20 | 70.0% | 66.2% | 57.4% – 74.4% |
| 54 | Bisi Johnson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 20 | 70.0% | 66.2% | 57.4% – 74.4% |
| 55 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 17 | 70.6% | 66.1% | 57.3% – 74.6% |
| 56 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 17 | 70.6% | 66.1% | 57.3% – 74.6% |
| 57 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 111 | 66.7% | 66.0% | 60.0% – 71.8% |
| 58 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | 67.3% | 66.0% | 58.7% – 73.0% |
| 59 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 55 | 67.3% | 66.0% | 58.7% – 73.0% |
| 60 | Golden Tate◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 52 | 67.3% | 66.0% | 58.6% – 73.1% |
| 61 | Danny Amendola | DET | WR | 69 | 66.7% | 65.8% | 58.9% – 72.5% |
| 62 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | DET | WR | 25 | 68.0% | 65.8% | 57.3% – 73.9% |
| 63 | Chad Hansen◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 25 | 68.0% | 65.8% | 57.3% – 73.9% |
| 64 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | WR | 89 | 66.3% | 65.7% | 59.3% – 71.9% |
| 65 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 54 | 66.7% | 65.7% | 58.4% – 72.8% |
| 66 | C.J. Board◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 65.7% | 56.7% – 74.2% |
| 67 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 48 | 66.7% | 65.7% | 58.1% – 72.9% |
| 68 | Greg Ward | PHI | WR | 80 | 66.3% | 65.7% | 59.0% – 72.1% |
| 69 | Russell Gage | ATL | WR | 109 | 66.1% | 65.6% | 59.6% – 71.5% |
| 70 | A.J. Brown | TEN | WR | 106 | 66.0% | 65.6% | 59.5% – 71.5% |
| 71 | Chad Beebe◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 30 | 66.7% | 65.5% | 57.2% – 73.4% |
| 72 | Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 21 | 66.7% | 65.4% | 56.7% – 73.7% |
| 73 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 65.3% | 56.5% – 73.8% |
| 74 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 116 | 65.5% | 65.3% | 59.4% – 71.0% |
| 75 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 61 | 65.6% | 65.3% | 58.1% – 72.1% |
| 76 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | 65.7% | 65.2% | 57.1% – 72.9% |
| 77 | Richie James◦ provisional | SF | WR | 35 | 65.7% | 65.2% | 57.1% – 72.9% |
| 78 | Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 75 | 65.3% | 65.1% | 58.4% – 71.7% |
| 79 | Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 63 | 65.1% | 65.0% | 57.9% – 71.8% |
| 80 | KeeSean Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 65.0% | 56.4% – 73.2% |
| 81 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | DET | WR | 20 | 65.0% | 65.0% | 56.2% – 73.3% |
| 82 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 64.9% | 55.9% – 73.4% |
| 83 | Anthony Miller | CHI | WR | 76 | 64.5% | 64.7% | 57.9% – 71.2% |
| 84 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 135 | 64.4% | 64.6% | 58.9% – 70.1% |
| 85 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 64.6% | 55.9% – 72.9% |
| 86 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 135 | 64.4% | 64.6% | 58.9% – 70.1% |
| 87 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 129 | 64.3% | 64.5% | 58.8% – 70.1% |
| 88 | Josh Reynolds | LA | WR | 81 | 64.2% | 64.5% | 57.9% – 70.9% |
| 89 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 44 | 63.6% | 64.4% | 56.7% – 71.8% |
| 90 | John Brown◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 52 | 63.5% | 64.3% | 56.8% – 71.5% |
| 91 | Tim Patrick | DEN | WR | 80 | 63.7% | 64.3% | 57.6% – 70.7% |
| 92 | Chris Conley | JAX | WR | 63 | 63.5% | 64.2% | 57.1% – 71.1% |
| 93 | Mike Thomas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 64.2% | 55.4% – 72.5% |
| 94 | Freddie Swain◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 64.2% | 55.4% – 72.5% |
| 95 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 32 | 62.5% | 64.1% | 55.9% – 72.0% |
| 96 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 32 | 62.5% | 64.1% | 55.9% – 72.0% |
| 97 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 29 | 62.1% | 64.0% | 55.7% – 72.0% |
| 98 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 15 | 60.0% | 64.0% | 54.9% – 72.7% |
| 99 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 26 | 61.5% | 63.9% | 55.4% – 72.1% |
| 100 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 111 | 63.1% | 63.7% | 57.7% – 69.6% |
| 101 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 31 | 61.3% | 63.7% | 55.4% – 71.7% |
| 102 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 53 | 62.3% | 63.7% | 56.3% – 70.9% |
| 103 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 28 | 60.7% | 63.6% | 55.2% – 71.7% |
| 104 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 96 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 57.1% – 69.6% |
| 105 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 63.3% | 54.4% – 71.8% |
| 106 | Andy Isabella◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 35 | 60.0% | 63.2% | 55.0% – 71.0% |
| 107 | Henry Ruggs III◦ provisional | LV | WR | 43 | 60.5% | 63.1% | 55.3% – 70.7% |
| 108 | Keelan Cole | JAX | WR | 89 | 61.8% | 63.1% | 56.6% – 69.4% |
| 109 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 108 | 62.0% | 63.1% | 57.0% – 69.1% |
| 110 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 63.0% | 53.8% – 71.9% |
| 111 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 63.0% | 53.8% – 71.9% |
| 112 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | 145 | 62.1% | 62.9% | 57.4% – 68.4% |
| 113 | Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 99 | 61.6% | 62.9% | 56.6% – 69.0% |
| 114 | Zach Pascal | IND | WR | 72 | 61.1% | 62.9% | 56.0% – 69.6% |
| 115 | Damiere Byrd | NE | WR | 77 | 61.0% | 62.8% | 56.0% – 69.4% |
| 116 | Christian Kirk | ARI | WR | 79 | 60.8% | 62.6% | 55.9% – 69.2% |
| 117 | Javon Wims◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 62.5% | 53.2% – 71.5% |
| 118 | Miles Boykin◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 62.4% | 54.1% – 70.3% |
| 119 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 25 | 56.0% | 62.4% | 53.8% – 70.7% |
| 120 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 144 | 61.1% | 62.3% | 56.7% – 67.7% |
| 121 | DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 104 | 60.6% | 62.2% | 56.0% – 68.3% |
| 122 | Marvin Hall◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 32 | 56.3% | 62.0% | 53.7% – 70.0% |
| 123 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 94 | 59.6% | 61.7% | 55.3% – 68.0% |
| 124 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 61.7% | 52.4% – 70.7% |
| 125 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 26 | 53.8% | 61.7% | 53.1% – 70.0% |
| 126 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 26 | 53.8% | 61.7% | 53.1% – 70.0% |
| 127 | Quintez Cephus◦ provisional | DET | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 61.5% | 53.4% – 69.4% |
| 128 | Collin Johnson◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 33 | 54.5% | 61.4% | 53.1% – 69.4% |
| 129 | Nelson Agholor | LV | WR | 82 | 58.5% | 61.3% | 54.6% – 67.9% |
| 130 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 55 | 56.4% | 60.9% | 53.5% – 68.2% |
| 131 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 62 | 56.5% | 60.7% | 53.5% – 67.8% |
| 132 | Julian Edelman◦ provisional | NE | WR | 39 | 53.8% | 60.7% | 52.6% – 68.5% |
| 133 | Travis Fulgham | PHI | WR | 67 | 56.7% | 60.7% | 53.6% – 67.6% |
| 134 | Marquise Brown | BAL | WR | 100 | 58.0% | 60.7% | 54.3% – 66.9% |
| 135 | Trent Taylor◦ provisional | SF | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 51.7% – 69.2% |
| 136 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | IND | WR | 28 | 50.0% | 60.3% | 51.8% – 68.6% |
| 137 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 43 | 53.5% | 60.3% | 52.4% – 68.0% |
| 138 | Mike Williams | LAC | WR | 85 | 56.5% | 60.1% | 53.4% – 66.6% |
| 139 | DJ Chark | JAX | WR | 94 | 56.4% | 59.8% | 53.3% – 66.2% |
| 140 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 44 | 52.3% | 59.7% | 51.8% – 67.4% |
| 141 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 56 | 53.6% | 59.6% | 52.1% – 66.9% |
| 142 | KJ Hamler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 56 | 53.6% | 59.6% | 52.1% – 66.9% |
| 143 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 105 | 56.2% | 59.5% | 53.2% – 65.6% |
| 144 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 45 | 51.1% | 59.2% | 51.3% – 66.8% |
| 145 | DJ Moore | CAR | WR | 118 | 55.9% | 59.1% | 53.0% – 65.0% |
| 146 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 58.9% | 50.7% – 66.9% |
| 147 | Chase Claypool | PIT | WR | 112 | 55.4% | 58.8% | 52.6% – 64.8% |
| 148 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | WR | 63 | 52.4% | 58.7% | 51.4% – 65.8% |
| 149 | Jalen Guyton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 55 | 50.9% | 58.4% | 50.9% – 65.8% |
| 150 | Jeff Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 37 | 46.0% | 57.9% | 49.7% – 65.9% |
| 151 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 60 | 50.0% | 57.6% | 50.3% – 64.9% |
| 152 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 96 | 52.1% | 57.2% | 50.7% – 63.6% |
| 153 | John Hightower◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 30 | 33.3% | 54.7% | 46.2% – 63.1% |
| 154 | A.J. Green | CIN | WR | 104 | 45.2% | 52.6% | 46.3% – 59.0% |
| 155 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 115 | 45.2% | 52.2% | 46.0% – 58.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).