NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2019
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 152
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 185 | 69.2% | 61.1% | 56.7% – 65.4% |
| 2 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 110 | 64.5% | 56.8% | 51.7% – 61.8% |
| 3 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 119 | 63.0% | 56.4% | 51.4% – 61.3% |
| 4 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 122 | 61.5% | 55.8% | 50.8% – 60.7% |
| 5 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 149 | 58.4% | 54.8% | 50.0% – 59.5% |
| 6 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 151 | 58.3% | 54.7% | 50.0% – 59.4% |
| 7 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 95 | 60.0% | 54.6% | 49.4% – 59.8% |
| 8 | Allen Robinson | CHI | WR | 154 | 57.8% | 54.5% | 49.8% – 59.2% |
| 9 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 91 | 59.3% | 54.2% | 49.0% – 59.5% |
| 10 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 89 | 58.4% | 53.9% | 48.6% – 59.1% |
| 11 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 69.2% | 53.8% | 47.7% – 59.9% |
| 12 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 108 | 57.4% | 53.8% | 48.7% – 58.8% |
| 13 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 69 | 59.4% | 53.8% | 48.2% – 59.3% |
| 14 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 136 | 56.6% | 53.8% | 48.9% – 58.6% |
| 15 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LV | WR | 64 | 59.4% | 53.6% | 48.0% – 59.2% |
| 16 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 46 | 60.9% | 53.4% | 47.6% – 59.2% |
| 17 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 119 | 56.3% | 53.4% | 48.4% – 58.4% |
| 18 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 48 | 60.4% | 53.4% | 47.6% – 59.2% |
| 19 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | 62.9% | 53.4% | 47.4% – 59.3% |
| 20 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 52 | 59.6% | 53.3% | 47.6% – 59.1% |
| 21 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 94 | 56.4% | 53.2% | 47.9% – 58.4% |
| 22 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | GB | WR | 128 | 55.5% | 53.1% | 48.2% – 58.0% |
| 23 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 113 | 55.8% | 53.1% | 48.1% – 58.2% |
| 24 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | SF | WR | 98 | 56.1% | 53.1% | 47.9% – 58.3% |
| 25 | John Brown◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 115 | 55.6% | 53.1% | 48.1% – 58.1% |
| 26 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 68 | 57.4% | 53.1% | 47.5% – 58.6% |
| 27 | Greg Ward◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 40 | 60.0% | 53.0% | 47.1% – 58.9% |
| 28 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 95 | 55.8% | 53.0% | 47.7% – 58.2% |
| 29 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 158 | 54.4% | 52.8% | 48.2% – 57.5% |
| 30 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 90 | 55.6% | 52.8% | 47.5% – 58.1% |
| 31 | Malik Turner◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 52.8% | 46.5% – 59.0% |
| 32 | Bisi Johnson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 45 | 57.8% | 52.7% | 46.8% – 58.5% |
| 33 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 55 | 56.4% | 52.6% | 46.9% – 58.3% |
| 34 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 84 | 54.8% | 52.5% | 47.1% – 57.8% |
| 35 | Kelvin Harmon◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 44 | 56.8% | 52.4% | 46.6% – 58.3% |
| 36 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 128 | 53.9% | 52.4% | 47.5% – 57.3% |
| 37 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 48 | 56.3% | 52.4% | 46.6% – 58.2% |
| 38 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 71 | 54.9% | 52.4% | 46.9% – 57.9% |
| 39 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | 66.7% | 52.3% | 45.9% – 58.7% |
| 40 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 52.3% | 46.3% – 58.3% |
| 41 | Keelan Doss◦ provisional | LV | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 52.3% | 45.9% – 58.6% |
| 42 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 83 | 54.2% | 52.3% | 46.9% – 57.6% |
| 43 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 139 | 53.2% | 52.2% | 47.3% – 57.0% |
| 44 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 72 | 54.2% | 52.1% | 46.7% – 57.6% |
| 45 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 52.1% | 46.0% – 58.3% |
| 46 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 84 | 53.6% | 52.0% | 46.7% – 57.4% |
| 47 | Andy Isabella◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 52.0% | 45.6% – 58.4% |
| 48 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 51.9% | 45.7% – 58.1% |
| 49 | Jake Kumerow◦ provisional | GB | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 51.9% | 45.7% – 58.1% |
| 50 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 73 | 53.4% | 51.9% | 46.4% – 57.4% |
| 51 | Julian Edelman | NE | WR | 154 | 52.6% | 51.9% | 47.2% – 56.6% |
| 52 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | 54.3% | 51.8% | 45.8% – 57.8% |
| 53 | Brandon Zylstra◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 51.7% | 45.3% – 58.1% |
| 54 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | NE | WR | 41 | 53.7% | 51.7% | 45.8% – 57.6% |
| 55 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 14 | 57.1% | 51.7% | 45.3% – 58.0% |
| 56 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 51.7% | 45.3% – 58.0% |
| 57 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 138 | 52.2% | 51.7% | 46.8% – 56.5% |
| 58 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 82 | 52.4% | 51.6% | 46.3% – 57.0% |
| 59 | Miles Boykin◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 22 | 54.5% | 51.6% | 45.4% – 57.8% |
| 60 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 28 | 53.6% | 51.6% | 45.4% – 57.7% |
| 61 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 36 | 52.8% | 51.5% | 45.5% – 57.5% |
| 62 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 46 | 52.2% | 51.4% | 45.6% – 57.2% |
| 63 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 27 | 51.8% | 51.3% | 45.1% – 57.4% |
| 64 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | 51.5% | 51.2% | 45.2% – 57.3% |
| 65 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 74 | 51.3% | 51.2% | 45.8% – 56.7% |
| 66 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 74 | 51.3% | 51.2% | 45.8% – 56.7% |
| 67 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | 51.3% | 51.2% | 45.3% – 57.2% |
| 68 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 41 | 51.2% | 51.2% | 45.3% – 57.1% |
| 69 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | 50.9% | 51.1% | 45.4% – 56.8% |
| 70 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 16 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 44.7% – 57.4% |
| 71 | Damion Willis◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 44.7% – 57.4% |
| 72 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 44.8% – 57.2% |
| 73 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 71 | 50.7% | 51.0% | 45.5% – 56.5% |
| 74 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | 50.6% | 51.0% | 45.6% – 56.3% |
| 75 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 48 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.1% – 56.7% |
| 76 | Larry Fitzgerald◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | 50.5% | 50.9% | 45.8% – 56.0% |
| 77 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.2% – 56.5% |
| 78 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 70 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.3% – 56.3% |
| 79 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 135 | 50.4% | 50.8% | 46.0% – 55.6% |
| 80 | Antonio Callaway◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 50.8% | 44.4% – 57.1% |
| 81 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.8% | 44.5% – 57.0% |
| 82 | Duke Williams◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 50.8% | 44.5% – 57.0% |
| 83 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | IND | WR | 33 | 48.5% | 50.7% | 44.7% – 56.7% |
| 84 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 102 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 45.6% – 55.9% |
| 85 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 47 | 48.9% | 50.7% | 44.8% – 56.5% |
| 86 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 120 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 45.7% – 55.6% |
| 87 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | LA | WR | 73 | 49.3% | 50.6% | 45.1% – 56.0% |
| 88 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | DET | WR | 97 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 45.3% – 55.7% |
| 89 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 117 | 49.6% | 50.5% | 45.5% – 55.5% |
| 90 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 50.5% | 44.3% – 56.6% |
| 91 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 36 | 47.2% | 50.4% | 44.4% – 56.4% |
| 92 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 42 | 47.6% | 50.4% | 44.5% – 56.3% |
| 93 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 42 | 47.6% | 50.4% | 44.5% – 56.3% |
| 94 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | 47.8% | 50.4% | 44.6% – 56.2% |
| 95 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 48 | 47.9% | 50.4% | 44.6% – 56.2% |
| 96 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | 38.5% | 50.2% | 43.8% – 56.6% |
| 97 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 43.8% – 56.5% |
| 98 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 31 | 45.2% | 50.2% | 44.1% – 56.2% |
| 99 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 39 | 46.2% | 50.2% | 44.2% – 56.1% |
| 100 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 91 | 48.4% | 50.1% | 44.9% – 55.4% |
| 101 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 62 | 46.8% | 49.9% | 44.3% – 55.5% |
| 102 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 60 | 46.7% | 49.9% | 44.3% – 55.5% |
| 103 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 34 | 44.1% | 49.9% | 43.9% – 55.9% |
| 104 | Deon Cain◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 43.6% – 56.1% |
| 105 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | 47.7% | 49.7% | 44.6% – 54.8% |
| 106 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | 47.1% | 49.7% | 44.4% – 55.0% |
| 107 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 33 | 42.4% | 49.6% | 43.6% – 55.7% |
| 108 | Vyncint Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 31 | 41.9% | 49.6% | 43.6% – 55.7% |
| 109 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 49.6% | 43.3% – 55.9% |
| 110 | Andre Patton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 49.6% | 43.3% – 55.9% |
| 111 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 49.6% | 43.2% – 56.0% |
| 112 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 78 | 46.2% | 49.5% | 44.1% – 54.9% |
| 113 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 52 | 44.2% | 49.4% | 43.7% – 55.2% |
| 114 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 28 | 39.3% | 49.3% | 43.2% – 55.5% |
| 115 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | 38.5% | 49.3% | 43.2% – 55.5% |
| 116 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 97 | 46.4% | 49.3% | 44.1% – 54.5% |
| 117 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 24 | 37.5% | 49.3% | 43.1% – 55.5% |
| 118 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 93 | 46.2% | 49.3% | 44.1% – 54.6% |
| 119 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | 36.4% | 49.3% | 43.1% – 55.5% |
| 120 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | NE | WR | 89 | 46.1% | 49.3% | 44.0% – 54.6% |
| 121 | Golden Tate◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | 45.9% | 49.3% | 44.0% – 54.6% |
| 122 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 71 | 45.1% | 49.2% | 43.8% – 54.7% |
| 123 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 122 | 46.7% | 49.2% | 44.2% – 54.2% |
| 124 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 43 | 41.9% | 49.1% | 43.3% – 55.0% |
| 125 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 80 | 45.0% | 49.0% | 43.7% – 54.4% |
| 126 | Christian Blake◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 25 | 36.0% | 49.0% | 42.9% – 55.2% |
| 127 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 49.0% | 42.8% – 55.2% |
| 128 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 56 | 42.9% | 48.9% | 43.3% – 54.6% |
| 129 | John Ross◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 56 | 42.9% | 48.9% | 43.3% – 54.6% |
| 130 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 148 | 46.6% | 48.9% | 44.2% – 53.7% |
| 131 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 124 | 46.0% | 48.8% | 43.9% – 53.8% |
| 132 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 92 | 44.6% | 48.7% | 43.4% – 53.9% |
| 133 | KeeSean Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 43 | 39.5% | 48.6% | 42.8% – 54.5% |
| 134 | Javon Wims◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 39 | 38.5% | 48.6% | 42.7% – 54.5% |
| 135 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 105 | 44.8% | 48.6% | 43.5% – 53.7% |
| 136 | Trey Quinn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 48 | 39.6% | 48.4% | 42.6% – 54.2% |
| 137 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 42.5% – 53.9% |
| 138 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 80 | 42.5% | 48.2% | 42.8% – 53.6% |
| 139 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 103 | 43.7% | 48.2% | 43.0% – 53.3% |
| 140 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 70 | 41.4% | 48.1% | 42.6% – 53.6% |
| 141 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | 18.8% | 48.1% | 41.8% – 54.4% |
| 142 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 39.3% | 48.0% | 42.3% – 53.7% |
| 143 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 24 | 25.0% | 47.6% | 41.4% – 53.8% |
| 144 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | 16.7% | 47.5% | 41.3% – 53.8% |
| 145 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | 37.5% | 47.5% | 41.8% – 53.2% |
| 146 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 133 | 42.9% | 47.3% | 42.4% – 52.2% |
| 147 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 6.7% | 47.2% | 40.9% – 53.5% |
| 148 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 6.7% | 47.2% | 40.9% – 53.5% |
| 149 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 35.7% | 47.0% | 41.4% – 52.7% |
| 150 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 45 | 31.1% | 46.6% | 40.8% – 52.4% |
| 151 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 58 | 32.8% | 46.1% | 40.5% – 51.8% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).