NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2019
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 292
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 122 | +0.70 | +0.39 | +0.26 – +0.52 |
| 2 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 185 | +0.54 | +0.37 | +0.24 – +0.49 |
| 3 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 41 | +0.90 | +0.34 | +0.19 – +0.49 |
| 4 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 84 | +0.59 | +0.33 | +0.19 – +0.47 |
| 5 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 135 | +0.49 | +0.33 | +0.20 – +0.47 |
| 6 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 89 | +0.56 | +0.33 | +0.19 – +0.47 |
| 7 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 110 | +0.51 | +0.33 | +0.19 – +0.46 |
| 8 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | +0.82 | +0.32 | +0.17 – +0.47 |
| 9 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 94 | +0.51 | +0.32 | +0.18 – +0.46 |
| 10 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 128 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.18 – +0.45 |
| 11 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 95 | +0.49 | +0.32 | +0.18 – +0.46 |
| 12 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 158 | +0.42 | +0.31 | +0.18 – +0.44 |
| 13 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 95 | +0.48 | +0.31 | +0.17 – +0.45 |
| 14 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 119 | +0.44 | +0.31 | +0.18 – +0.45 |
| 15 | John Brown◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 115 | +0.44 | +0.31 | +0.17 – +0.45 |
| 16 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 151 | +0.40 | +0.31 | +0.18 – +0.44 |
| 17 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 69 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.16 – +0.45 |
| 18 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 72 | +0.48 | +0.30 | +0.16 – +0.45 |
| 19 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 124 | +0.41 | +0.30 | +0.17 – +0.44 |
| 20 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 55 | +0.53 | +0.30 | +0.16 – +0.45 |
| 21 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 52 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 – +0.45 |
| 22 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | GB | WR | 128 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.16 – +0.43 |
| 23 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 113 | +0.40 | +0.30 | +0.16 – +0.43 |
| 24 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 46 | +0.53 | +0.30 | +0.15 – +0.44 |
| 25 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 36 | +0.59 | +0.30 | +0.14 – +0.45 |
| 26 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 117 | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.16 – +0.43 |
| 27 | Miles Boykin◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 22 | +0.78 | +0.29 | +0.14 – +0.45 |
| 28 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 91 | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.15 – +0.43 |
| 29 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LV | WR | 64 | +0.45 | +0.29 | +0.15 – +0.44 |
| 30 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 47 | +0.50 | +0.29 | +0.14 – +0.44 |
| 31 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 93 | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.15 – +0.43 |
| 32 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.15 – +0.43 |
| 33 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 70 | +0.41 | +0.29 | +0.14 – +0.43 |
| 34 | Andy Isabella◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | +0.91 | +0.29 | +0.13 – +0.44 |
| 35 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | +0.60 | +0.29 | +0.13 – +0.44 |
| 36 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 90 | +0.37 | +0.29 | +0.15 – +0.43 |
| 37 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 82 | +0.37 | +0.28 | +0.14 – +0.43 |
| 38 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 16 | +0.73 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.44 |
| 39 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 71 | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.14 – +0.43 |
| 40 | Jake Kumerow◦ provisional | GB | WR | 21 | +0.59 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.44 |
| 41 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | +0.47 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.43 |
| 42 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 48 | +0.41 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.43 |
| 43 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 83 | +0.35 | +0.28 | +0.14 – +0.42 |
| 44 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 21 | +0.52 | +0.28 | +0.12 – +0.43 |
| 45 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | +0.42 | +0.28 | +0.12 – +0.43 |
| 46 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 71 | +0.34 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.42 |
| 47 | Keelan Doss◦ provisional | LV | WR | 14 | +0.60 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.43 |
| 48 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 24 | +0.46 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.43 |
| 49 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 68 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.13 – +0.42 |
| 50 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 48 | +0.35 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.42 |
| 51 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 48 | +0.34 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.42 |
| 52 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 14 | +0.51 | +0.27 | +0.11 – +0.43 |
| 53 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | NE | WR | 41 | +0.35 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.42 |
| 54 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 149 | +0.29 | +0.27 | +0.14 – +0.40 |
| 55 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | +0.45 | +0.27 | +0.11 – +0.42 |
| 56 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 120 | +0.29 | +0.27 | +0.13 – +0.40 |
| 57 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 46 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.42 |
| 58 | Brandon Zylstra◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 12 | +0.45 | +0.27 | +0.11 – +0.42 |
| 59 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.12 – +0.41 |
| 60 | John Ross◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 56 | +0.30 | +0.26 | +0.12 – +0.41 |
| 61 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 73 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.12 – +0.41 |
| 62 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 136 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.13 – +0.39 |
| 63 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 48 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.41 |
| 64 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 154 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.13 – +0.39 |
| 65 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 28 | +0.29 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.41 |
| 66 | Malik Turner◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | +0.29 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.42 |
| 67 | Duke Williams◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 19 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.10 – +0.41 |
| 68 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | IND | WR | 33 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.41 |
| 69 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 39 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.41 |
| 70 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 102 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.12 – +0.40 |
| 71 | Bisi Johnson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 45 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.41 |
| 72 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | +0.24 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.40 |
| 73 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 31 | +0.23 | +0.26 | +0.10 – +0.41 |
| 74 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | LA | WR | 73 | +0.24 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.40 |
| 75 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | +0.24 | +0.26 | +0.11 – +0.40 |
| 76 | Kelvin Harmon◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 44 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.11 – +0.40 |
| 77 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | +0.20 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.41 |
| 78 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.11 – +0.40 |
| 79 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 119 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.12 – +0.39 |
| 80 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | +0.19 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.41 |
| 81 | Golden Tate◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.11 – +0.39 |
| 82 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 21 | +0.16 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.41 |
| 83 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 34 | +0.19 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.40 |
| 84 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | +0.08 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.41 |
| 85 | Greg Ward◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 40 | +0.20 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.40 |
| 86 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 92 | +0.22 | +0.25 | +0.11 – +0.39 |
| 87 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | +0.04 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.41 |
| 88 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 27 | +0.13 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 89 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | -0.02 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 90 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 58 | +0.18 | +0.25 | +0.10 – +0.39 |
| 91 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 91 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.11 – +0.38 |
| 92 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | +0.06 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 93 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | +0.13 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.39 |
| 94 | Andre Patton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | -0.01 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 95 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | +0.07 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 96 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | -0.10 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.40 |
| 97 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | SF | WR | 98 | +0.19 | +0.24 | +0.10 – +0.38 |
| 98 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 42 | +0.12 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.39 |
| 99 | Damion Willis◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | -0.09 | +0.24 | +0.08 – +0.40 |
| 100 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 80 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.10 – +0.38 |
| 101 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 42 | +0.10 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.39 |
| 102 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 43 | +0.08 | +0.24 | +0.09 – +0.39 |
| 103 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | +0.05 | +0.24 | +0.08 – +0.39 |
| 104 | Deon Cain◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 20 | -0.10 | +0.24 | +0.08 – +0.39 |
| 105 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.10 – +0.37 |
| 106 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 23 | -0.10 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.39 |
| 107 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 24 | -0.09 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.39 |
| 108 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 28 | -0.05 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 109 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | DET | WR | 97 | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.09 – +0.37 |
| 110 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 74 | +0.12 | +0.23 | +0.09 – +0.37 |
| 111 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 56 | +0.09 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 112 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | -0.26 | +0.23 | +0.07 – +0.39 |
| 113 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | +0.08 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 114 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | +0.08 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 115 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 108 | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.09 – +0.37 |
| 116 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 139 | +0.16 | +0.23 | +0.10 – +0.36 |
| 117 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 62 | +0.08 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.37 |
| 118 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 138 | +0.16 | +0.23 | +0.10 – +0.36 |
| 119 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 24 | -0.18 | +0.23 | +0.07 – +0.38 |
| 120 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 74 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.08 – +0.37 |
| 121 | Vyncint Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 31 | -0.11 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.38 |
| 122 | Christian Blake◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 25 | -0.19 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.38 |
| 123 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 80 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.08 – +0.36 |
| 124 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | -0.36 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.38 |
| 125 | Antonio Callaway◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | -0.48 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.38 |
| 126 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 33 | -0.10 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.37 |
| 127 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 84 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.08 – +0.36 |
| 128 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | -0.49 | +0.22 | +0.06 – +0.38 |
| 129 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 52 | -0.02 | +0.22 | +0.07 – +0.36 |
| 130 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | NE | WR | 89 | +0.07 | +0.21 | +0.07 – +0.36 |
| 131 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 60 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.07 – +0.36 |
| 132 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 105 | +0.08 | +0.21 | +0.07 – +0.35 |
| 133 | Julian Edelman◦ provisional | NE | WR | 154 | +0.12 | +0.21 | +0.08 – +0.34 |
| 134 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 97 | +0.05 | +0.21 | +0.07 – +0.35 |
| 135 | KeeSean Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 43 | -0.15 | +0.21 | +0.06 – +0.36 |
| 136 | Larry Fitzgerald◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.06 – +0.34 |
| 137 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 71 | -0.04 | +0.20 | +0.06 – +0.34 |
| 138 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 70 | -0.05 | +0.20 | +0.06 – +0.34 |
| 139 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | -1.04 | +0.20 | +0.04 – +0.35 |
| 140 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 122 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.06 – +0.33 |
| 141 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 36 | -0.33 | +0.19 | +0.04 – +0.34 |
| 142 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | -1.08 | +0.19 | +0.04 – +0.35 |
| 143 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 103 | -0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 – +0.33 |
| 144 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | -0.16 | +0.19 | +0.04 – +0.34 |
| 145 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 148 | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.06 – +0.32 |
| 146 | Javon Wims◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 39 | -0.33 | +0.19 | +0.04 – +0.34 |
| 147 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 133 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 – +0.32 |
| 148 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 45 | -0.34 | +0.18 | +0.03 – +0.33 |
| 149 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 78 | -0.13 | +0.18 | +0.04 – +0.32 |
| 150 | Trey Quinn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 48 | -0.41 | +0.16 | +0.02 – +0.31 |
| 151 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 58 | -0.34 | +0.16 | +0.01 – +0.31 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).