NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2019
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 141
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 185 | 80.5% | 72.4% | 68.3% – 76.4% |
| 2 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 110 | 74.6% | 67.4% | 62.4% – 72.1% |
| 3 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 149 | 69.8% | 65.9% | 61.3% – 70.4% |
| 4 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 122 | 70.5% | 65.8% | 61.0% – 70.5% |
| 5 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 48 | 77.1% | 65.7% | 59.9% – 71.2% |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 135 | 69.6% | 65.6% | 60.9% – 70.2% |
| 7 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 151 | 68.9% | 65.4% | 60.8% – 70.0% |
| 8 | Larry Fitzgerald◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | 68.8% | 64.8% | 59.8% – 69.7% |
| 9 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 55 | 72.7% | 64.8% | 59.2% – 70.3% |
| 10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 82 | 69.5% | 64.6% | 59.3% – 69.8% |
| 11 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | 75.8% | 64.4% | 58.4% – 70.3% |
| 12 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 91 | 68.1% | 64.3% | 59.0% – 69.4% |
| 13 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 71 | 69.0% | 64.2% | 58.7% – 69.5% |
| 14 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 62 | 69.3% | 64.1% | 58.5% – 69.5% |
| 15 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | SF | WR | 98 | 67.3% | 64.1% | 58.9% – 69.1% |
| 16 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 84 | 67.9% | 64.0% | 58.7% – 69.2% |
| 17 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 72 | 68.1% | 63.9% | 58.4% – 69.2% |
| 18 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 119 | 66.4% | 63.9% | 58.9% – 68.7% |
| 19 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 24 | 75.0% | 63.7% | 57.5% – 69.7% |
| 20 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | 69.6% | 63.7% | 57.8% – 69.4% |
| 21 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 35 | 71.4% | 63.7% | 57.7% – 69.5% |
| 22 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 95 | 66.3% | 63.6% | 58.4% – 68.7% |
| 23 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 95 | 66.3% | 63.6% | 58.4% – 68.7% |
| 24 | Greg Ward◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 40 | 70.0% | 63.6% | 57.6% – 69.4% |
| 25 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | NE | WR | 89 | 66.3% | 63.5% | 58.3% – 68.7% |
| 26 | Bisi Johnson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 45 | 68.9% | 63.5% | 57.6% – 69.2% |
| 27 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 83 | 66.3% | 63.4% | 58.1% – 68.7% |
| 28 | Julian Edelman | NE | WR | 154 | 64.9% | 63.4% | 58.8% – 68.0% |
| 29 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 39 | 69.2% | 63.4% | 57.4% – 69.2% |
| 30 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 76.5% | 63.3% | 57.0% – 69.5% |
| 31 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 74 | 66.2% | 63.3% | 57.8% – 68.6% |
| 32 | Kelvin Harmon◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 44 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 57.4% – 69.0% |
| 33 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 14 | 78.6% | 63.3% | 56.9% – 69.5% |
| 34 | Keelan Doss◦ provisional | LV | WR | 14 | 78.6% | 63.3% | 56.9% – 69.5% |
| 35 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | GB | WR | 52 | 67.3% | 63.3% | 57.5% – 68.9% |
| 36 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 139 | 64.8% | 63.2% | 58.5% – 67.9% |
| 37 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | GB | WR | 128 | 64.8% | 63.2% | 58.4% – 68.0% |
| 38 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 68 | 66.2% | 63.2% | 57.7% – 68.6% |
| 39 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 46 | 67.4% | 63.1% | 57.3% – 68.9% |
| 40 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 63.1% | 57.0% – 69.2% |
| 41 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 75.0% | 63.1% | 56.7% – 69.3% |
| 42 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 89 | 65.2% | 63.1% | 57.8% – 68.2% |
| 43 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 48 | 66.7% | 63.0% | 57.2% – 68.7% |
| 44 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LV | WR | 64 | 65.6% | 63.0% | 57.4% – 68.4% |
| 45 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 69.2% | 62.9% | 56.7% – 69.0% |
| 46 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 42 | 66.7% | 62.9% | 57.0% – 68.7% |
| 47 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 136 | 64.0% | 62.8% | 58.0% – 67.6% |
| 48 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | 75.0% | 62.8% | 56.3% – 69.1% |
| 49 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 122 | 63.9% | 62.8% | 57.8% – 67.6% |
| 50 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 71 | 64.8% | 62.8% | 57.3% – 68.2% |
| 51 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 36 | 66.7% | 62.8% | 56.7% – 68.6% |
| 52 | Allen Robinson | CHI | WR | 154 | 63.6% | 62.7% | 58.1% – 67.3% |
| 53 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 103 | 64.1% | 62.7% | 57.6% – 67.8% |
| 54 | Diontae Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 92 | 64.1% | 62.7% | 57.5% – 67.8% |
| 55 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | DET | WR | 97 | 63.9% | 62.6% | 57.4% – 67.7% |
| 56 | Malik Turner◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 62.6% | 56.3% – 68.8% |
| 57 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 46 | 65.2% | 62.6% | 56.7% – 68.3% |
| 58 | Isaiah Ford◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | 65.7% | 62.6% | 56.5% – 68.5% |
| 59 | Andy Isabella◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 69.2% | 62.4% | 55.9% – 68.7% |
| 60 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 158 | 62.7% | 62.2% | 57.6% – 66.8% |
| 61 | Brandon Zylstra◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 12 | 66.7% | 62.2% | 55.6% – 68.5% |
| 62 | John Brown◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 115 | 62.6% | 62.2% | 57.1% – 67.1% |
| 63 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | NE | WR | 41 | 63.4% | 62.1% | 56.2% – 68.0% |
| 64 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 41 | 63.4% | 62.1% | 56.2% – 68.0% |
| 65 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 109 | 62.4% | 62.0% | 57.0% – 67.0% |
| 66 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 48 | 62.5% | 62.0% | 56.1% – 67.7% |
| 67 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 69 | 62.3% | 62.0% | 56.4% – 67.4% |
| 68 | Duke Williams◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 19 | 63.2% | 61.9% | 55.6% – 68.1% |
| 69 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 108 | 62.0% | 61.9% | 56.8% – 66.9% |
| 70 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 58 | 62.1% | 61.9% | 56.1% – 67.4% |
| 71 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 61.9% | 55.8% – 67.8% |
| 72 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 84 | 61.9% | 61.8% | 56.5% – 67.1% |
| 73 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 94 | 61.7% | 61.8% | 56.5% – 66.9% |
| 74 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 36 | 61.1% | 61.6% | 55.6% – 67.6% |
| 75 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | 61.2% | 61.6% | 56.2% – 66.8% |
| 76 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 60.7% | 61.5% | 55.7% – 67.1% |
| 77 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | 60.7% | 61.5% | 55.7% – 67.1% |
| 78 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 48 | 60.4% | 61.4% | 55.6% – 67.2% |
| 79 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | 60.0% | 61.4% | 55.3% – 67.4% |
| 80 | Miles Boykin◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 61.4% | 55.1% – 67.6% |
| 81 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | LV | WR | 45 | 60.0% | 61.4% | 55.4% – 67.1% |
| 82 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 120 | 60.8% | 61.3% | 56.4% – 66.2% |
| 83 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 148 | 60.8% | 61.3% | 56.5% – 65.9% |
| 84 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 61.2% | 54.8% – 67.5% |
| 85 | Damion Willis◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 61.2% | 54.8% – 67.5% |
| 86 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 61.2% | 54.8% – 67.4% |
| 87 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 61.2% | 54.8% – 67.4% |
| 88 | Jake Kumerow◦ provisional | GB | WR | 21 | 57.1% | 61.2% | 54.8% – 67.4% |
| 89 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 61.1% | 54.9% – 67.3% |
| 90 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 28 | 57.1% | 61.0% | 54.8% – 67.1% |
| 91 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 28 | 57.1% | 61.0% | 54.8% – 67.1% |
| 92 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 61.0% | 54.9% – 67.0% |
| 93 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 61.0% | 54.5% – 67.3% |
| 94 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 138 | 60.1% | 61.0% | 56.1% – 65.7% |
| 95 | Antonio Callaway◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 61.0% | 54.5% – 67.3% |
| 96 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 71 | 59.2% | 60.9% | 55.3% – 66.3% |
| 97 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | 58.2% | 60.8% | 55.0% – 66.4% |
| 98 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 42 | 57.1% | 60.7% | 54.7% – 66.6% |
| 99 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 47 | 57.5% | 60.7% | 54.8% – 66.5% |
| 100 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 60.7% | 54.4% – 66.8% |
| 101 | Vyncint Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 31 | 54.8% | 60.5% | 54.4% – 66.6% |
| 102 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 74 | 58.1% | 60.5% | 55.0% – 65.9% |
| 103 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 60.5% | 53.9% – 66.8% |
| 104 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | LA | WR | 73 | 57.5% | 60.3% | 54.8% – 65.8% |
| 105 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 113 | 58.4% | 60.3% | 55.2% – 65.3% |
| 106 | Golden Tate◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | 57.6% | 60.2% | 54.8% – 65.5% |
| 107 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 60.1% | 53.8% – 66.2% |
| 108 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 124 | 58.1% | 60.0% | 55.1% – 64.9% |
| 109 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 91 | 57.1% | 60.0% | 54.6% – 65.2% |
| 110 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 31 | 51.6% | 60.0% | 53.8% – 66.0% |
| 111 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 26 | 50.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% – 66.1% |
| 112 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 73 | 56.2% | 59.9% | 54.3% – 65.3% |
| 113 | Trey Quinn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 48 | 54.2% | 59.9% | 53.9% – 65.6% |
| 114 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | IND | WR | 33 | 51.5% | 59.8% | 53.7% – 65.9% |
| 115 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 85 | 56.5% | 59.8% | 54.4% – 65.1% |
| 116 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 70 | 55.7% | 59.8% | 54.2% – 65.3% |
| 117 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 102 | 56.9% | 59.7% | 54.5% – 64.8% |
| 118 | Deon Cain◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 20 | 45.0% | 59.7% | 53.3% – 66.0% |
| 119 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 52 | 53.8% | 59.6% | 53.8% – 65.4% |
| 120 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 59.6% | 53.2% – 65.8% |
| 121 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 34 | 50.0% | 59.5% | 53.3% – 65.5% |
| 122 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 59.5% | 53.1% – 65.7% |
| 123 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 56 | 53.6% | 59.5% | 53.7% – 65.1% |
| 124 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 78 | 55.1% | 59.4% | 53.9% – 64.8% |
| 125 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 80 | 55.0% | 59.3% | 53.9% – 64.7% |
| 126 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 59.3% | 52.8% – 65.7% |
| 127 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 119 | 56.3% | 59.3% | 54.2% – 64.2% |
| 128 | Preston Williams◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 60 | 53.3% | 59.3% | 53.5% – 64.9% |
| 129 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 52.7% | 59.2% | 53.4% – 64.9% |
| 130 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 59.2% | 52.9% – 65.4% |
| 131 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 59.2% | 52.6% – 65.6% |
| 132 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 128 | 56.3% | 59.2% | 54.2% – 64.0% |
| 133 | Christian Blake◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 25 | 44.0% | 59.1% | 52.8% – 65.3% |
| 134 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 117 | 55.6% | 59.0% | 53.9% – 63.9% |
| 135 | Andre Patton◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 58.9% | 52.5% – 65.3% |
| 136 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 90 | 54.4% | 58.9% | 53.6% – 64.2% |
| 137 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 133 | 55.6% | 58.8% | 53.9% – 63.6% |
| 138 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 43 | 48.8% | 58.8% | 52.8% – 64.6% |
| 139 | KeeSean Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 43 | 48.8% | 58.8% | 52.8% – 64.6% |
| 140 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 97 | 53.6% | 58.5% | 53.2% – 63.6% |
| 141 | John Ross◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 56 | 50.0% | 58.4% | 52.6% – 64.1% |
| 142 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 26.7% | 58.4% | 51.9% – 64.8% |
| 143 | Javon Wims◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 39 | 46.2% | 58.4% | 52.3% – 64.4% |
| 144 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 70 | 51.4% | 58.4% | 52.7% – 63.9% |
| 145 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 58 | 48.3% | 57.9% | 52.1% – 63.5% |
| 146 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 20.0% | 57.8% | 51.2% – 64.2% |
| 147 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 80 | 50.0% | 57.5% | 52.0% – 62.9% |
| 148 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 46.4% | 57.4% | 51.6% – 63.1% |
| 149 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 105 | 51.4% | 57.4% | 52.2% – 62.5% |
| 150 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 93 | 50.5% | 57.3% | 52.0% – 62.6% |
| 151 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | 16.7% | 56.7% | 50.2% – 63.1% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).