NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2018
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 96
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2018 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | 73.2% | 60.4% | 54.1% – 66.5% |
| 2 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 148 | 66.2% | 60.2% | 55.0% – 65.3% |
| 3 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 163 | 63.2% | 58.6% | 53.6% – 63.6% |
| 4 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 154 | 61.7% | 57.5% | 52.4% – 62.6% |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 137 | 61.3% | 57.0% | 51.6% – 62.3% |
| 6 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 96 | 62.5% | 56.7% | 50.8% – 62.5% |
| 7 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 39 | 69.2% | 56.2% | 49.1% – 63.1% |
| 8 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 139 | 59.7% | 56.1% | 50.8% – 61.4% |
| 9 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 120 | 60.0% | 55.9% | 50.4% – 61.5% |
| 10 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 108 | 60.2% | 55.8% | 50.1% – 61.5% |
| 11 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 92 | 60.9% | 55.8% | 49.8% – 61.7% |
| 12 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 130 | 59.2% | 55.7% | 50.2% – 61.1% |
| 13 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 170 | 57.6% | 55.2% | 50.2% – 60.2% |
| 14 | Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 107 | 58.9% | 55.1% | 49.3% – 60.8% |
| 15 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 63.6% | 54.9% | 47.9% – 61.7% |
| 16 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | 61.8% | 54.9% | 48.2% – 61.5% |
| 17 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 55 | 61.8% | 54.9% | 48.2% – 61.5% |
| 18 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 19 | 73.7% | 54.6% | 47.0% – 62.2% |
| 19 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 97 | 57.7% | 54.3% | 48.4% – 60.2% |
| 20 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 87 | 57.5% | 54.0% | 47.9% – 60.0% |
| 21 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 167 | 55.7% | 53.9% | 48.9% – 59.0% |
| 22 | Brandin Cooks | LA | WR | 117 | 56.4% | 53.9% | 48.3% – 59.5% |
| 23 | Julian Edelman | NE | WR | 108 | 56.5% | 53.8% | 48.1% – 59.6% |
| 24 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 45 | 60.0% | 53.8% | 46.9% – 60.6% |
| 25 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 53 | 58.5% | 53.6% | 46.9% – 60.3% |
| 26 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 137 | 55.5% | 53.6% | 48.2% – 58.9% |
| 27 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 68 | 57.4% | 53.6% | 47.1% – 59.9% |
| 28 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 42 | 59.5% | 53.5% | 46.5% – 60.4% |
| 29 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 61 | 57.4% | 53.4% | 46.9% – 59.9% |
| 30 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 93 | 55.9% | 53.3% | 47.4% – 59.3% |
| 31 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 53.3% | 46.8% – 59.7% |
| 32 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 28 | 60.7% | 53.1% | 45.7% – 60.4% |
| 33 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 30 | 60.0% | 53.0% | 45.7% – 60.3% |
| 34 | Adam Humphries | TB | WR | 106 | 54.7% | 52.9% | 47.1% – 58.6% |
| 35 | Jordy Nelson◦ provisional | LV | WR | 89 | 55.1% | 52.9% | 46.9% – 58.9% |
| 36 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | 56.4% | 52.9% | 46.2% – 59.5% |
| 37 | Keith Kirkwood◦ provisional | NO | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 52.8% | 45.3% – 60.4% |
| 38 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 78 | 55.1% | 52.8% | 46.6% – 59.0% |
| 39 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 25 | 60.0% | 52.8% | 45.3% – 60.2% |
| 40 | Austin Carr◦ provisional | NO | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 52.6% | 44.8% – 60.4% |
| 41 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 170 | 53.5% | 52.6% | 47.5% – 57.6% |
| 42 | Brandon LaFell◦ provisional | LV | WR | 16 | 62.5% | 52.5% | 44.8% – 60.2% |
| 43 | Taywan Taylor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 57 | 54.4% | 52.2% | 45.5% – 58.8% |
| 44 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | NE | WR | 71 | 53.5% | 52.0% | 45.6% – 58.3% |
| 45 | Doug Baldwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 73 | 53.4% | 52.0% | 45.7% – 58.3% |
| 46 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 25 | 56.0% | 51.9% | 44.5% – 59.4% |
| 47 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 79 | 53.2% | 51.9% | 45.7% – 58.1% |
| 48 | Martavis Bryant◦ provisional | LV | WR | 27 | 55.6% | 51.9% | 44.5% – 59.3% |
| 49 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | 54.3% | 51.8% | 44.6% – 58.9% |
| 50 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 74 | 52.7% | 51.7% | 45.4% – 57.9% |
| 51 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 51.6% | 43.9% – 59.4% |
| 52 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 90 | 52.2% | 51.5% | 45.5% – 57.5% |
| 53 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 92 | 52.2% | 51.5% | 45.5% – 57.5% |
| 54 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 98 | 52.0% | 51.5% | 45.6% – 57.3% |
| 55 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 51.4% | 45.0% – 57.9% |
| 56 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 67 | 52.2% | 51.4% | 45.0% – 57.8% |
| 57 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 44 | 52.3% | 51.3% | 44.4% – 58.2% |
| 58 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 43.4% – 59.0% |
| 59 | Darius Jennings◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 43.4% – 59.0% |
| 60 | Deontay Burnett◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 43.4% – 59.0% |
| 61 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | LV | WR | 64 | 51.6% | 51.1% | 44.7% – 57.6% |
| 62 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 51.1% | 43.6% – 58.5% |
| 63 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 27 | 51.8% | 51.1% | 43.7% – 58.5% |
| 64 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | 51.8% | 51.1% | 43.7% – 58.5% |
| 65 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 53 | 50.9% | 50.9% | 44.2% – 57.6% |
| 66 | Kenny Golladay | DET | WR | 122 | 50.8% | 50.8% | 45.3% – 56.4% |
| 67 | Devin Funchess◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 79 | 50.6% | 50.8% | 44.6% – 57.0% |
| 68 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 43.2% – 58.2% |
| 69 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 26 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 43.3% – 58.1% |
| 70 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 43.4% – 58.0% |
| 71 | Ryan Switzer◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 44 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 43.7% – 57.5% |
| 72 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 44 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 43.7% – 57.5% |
| 73 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 46 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 43.7% – 57.5% |
| 74 | Ryan Grant◦ provisional | IND | WR | 52 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 43.8% – 57.3% |
| 75 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 54 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 43.9% – 57.3% |
| 76 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 62 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 44.0% – 57.0% |
| 77 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 74 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 44.2% – 56.8% |
| 78 | Josh Doctson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 78 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 44.3% – 56.7% |
| 79 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 50.3% | 42.5% – 58.1% |
| 80 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | DET | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 50.3% | 42.6% – 58.0% |
| 81 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 50.3% | 42.6% – 57.9% |
| 82 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 50.3% | 42.7% – 57.9% |
| 83 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | 48.3% | 50.3% | 42.9% – 57.6% |
| 84 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 47 | 48.9% | 50.2% | 43.4% – 57.1% |
| 85 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 45 | 48.9% | 50.2% | 43.3% – 57.1% |
| 86 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 49 | 49.0% | 50.2% | 43.4% – 57.0% |
| 87 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 53 | 49.1% | 50.2% | 43.5% – 56.9% |
| 88 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 65 | 49.2% | 50.2% | 43.8% – 56.7% |
| 89 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 95 | 49.5% | 50.2% | 44.2% – 56.1% |
| 90 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 89 | 49.4% | 50.2% | 44.1% – 56.2% |
| 91 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 95 | 49.5% | 50.2% | 44.2% – 56.1% |
| 92 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 108 | 49.1% | 49.9% | 44.2% – 55.7% |
| 93 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 112 | 49.1% | 49.9% | 44.2% – 55.6% |
| 94 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 82 | 48.8% | 49.9% | 43.8% – 56.1% |
| 95 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 52 | 48.1% | 49.9% | 43.1% – 56.6% |
| 96 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 36 | 47.2% | 49.9% | 42.8% – 57.0% |
| 97 | Torrey Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 46.9% | 49.9% | 42.6% – 57.1% |
| 98 | Deonte Thompson◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | 46.7% | 49.9% | 42.6% – 57.2% |
| 99 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 22 | 45.5% | 49.9% | 42.3% – 57.4% |
| 100 | Richie James◦ provisional | SF | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 49.9% | 42.0% – 57.7% |
| 101 | Trent Taylor◦ provisional | SF | WR | 41 | 46.3% | 49.5% | 42.5% – 56.5% |
| 102 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 41 | 46.3% | 49.5% | 42.5% – 56.5% |
| 103 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | 45.7% | 49.5% | 42.3% – 56.7% |
| 104 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 35 | 45.7% | 49.5% | 42.3% – 56.7% |
| 105 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | 45.5% | 49.5% | 42.3% – 56.7% |
| 106 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 31 | 45.2% | 49.5% | 42.2% – 56.8% |
| 107 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 31 | 45.2% | 49.5% | 42.2% – 56.8% |
| 108 | Cody Core◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | 44.8% | 49.5% | 42.1% – 56.8% |
| 109 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 44.0% | 49.5% | 42.0% – 56.9% |
| 110 | Michael Crabtree | BAL | WR | 100 | 48.0% | 49.4% | 43.5% – 55.3% |
| 111 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 70 | 47.1% | 49.3% | 42.9% – 55.7% |
| 112 | Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | WR | 125 | 48.0% | 49.3% | 43.7% – 54.8% |
| 113 | Andy Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 24 | 41.7% | 49.0% | 41.6% – 56.5% |
| 114 | Marvin Hall◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 20 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 41.4% – 56.6% |
| 115 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 94 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 42.9% – 54.8% |
| 116 | Pierre Garcon◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 44.7% | 48.8% | 42.0% – 55.7% |
| 117 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 113 | 46.9% | 48.7% | 43.1% – 54.4% |
| 118 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | 42.9% | 48.7% | 41.6% – 55.9% |
| 119 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | WR | 103 | 46.6% | 48.7% | 42.9% – 54.5% |
| 120 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 48.4% | 41.3% – 55.5% |
| 121 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 69 | 44.9% | 48.4% | 42.0% – 54.8% |
| 122 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 34 | 41.2% | 48.3% | 41.2% – 55.5% |
| 123 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 61 | 44.3% | 48.3% | 41.8% – 54.9% |
| 124 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 24 | 37.5% | 48.2% | 40.7% – 55.7% |
| 125 | Andre Roberts◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 40.5% – 55.8% |
| 126 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 41 | 41.5% | 48.1% | 41.1% – 55.1% |
| 127 | Golden Tate | PHI | WR | 114 | 45.6% | 48.0% | 42.4% – 53.7% |
| 128 | Marcell Ateman◦ provisional | LV | WR | 31 | 38.7% | 47.9% | 40.7% – 55.2% |
| 129 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 46 | 41.3% | 47.8% | 40.9% – 54.7% |
| 130 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 69 | 43.5% | 47.8% | 41.4% – 54.2% |
| 131 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 47.8% | 40.3% – 55.3% |
| 132 | Bruce Ellington◦ provisional | DET | WR | 42 | 40.5% | 47.7% | 40.8% – 54.7% |
| 133 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 40 | 40.0% | 47.7% | 40.7% – 54.7% |
| 134 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 168 | 45.8% | 47.7% | 42.6% – 52.7% |
| 135 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | WR | 97 | 44.3% | 47.6% | 41.7% – 53.5% |
| 136 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 74 | 43.2% | 47.5% | 41.3% – 53.8% |
| 137 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 53 | 41.5% | 47.5% | 40.9% – 54.3% |
| 138 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 150 | 45.3% | 47.5% | 42.3% – 52.7% |
| 139 | Maurice Harris◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 47 | 40.4% | 47.4% | 40.6% – 54.3% |
| 140 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 85 | 43.5% | 47.4% | 41.3% – 53.5% |
| 141 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 12 | 16.7% | 47.1% | 39.2% – 55.0% |
| 142 | J.J. Nelson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 19 | 26.3% | 46.8% | 39.2% – 54.5% |
| 143 | Zay Jones | BUF | WR | 103 | 42.7% | 46.7% | 40.9% – 52.5% |
| 144 | Justin Hunter◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 13 | 15.4% | 46.6% | 38.9% – 54.5% |
| 145 | Quincy Enunwa◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 69 | 40.6% | 46.6% | 40.2% – 53.0% |
| 146 | Antonio Callaway◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 82 | 41.5% | 46.5% | 40.4% – 52.7% |
| 147 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 47 | 36.2% | 46.0% | 39.2% – 52.9% |
| 148 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 32 | 31.3% | 46.0% | 38.8% – 53.2% |
| 149 | John Brown | BAL | WR | 98 | 39.8% | 45.3% | 39.4% – 51.2% |
| 150 | Jermaine Kearse◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 76 | 38.2% | 45.3% | 39.1% – 51.5% |
| 151 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 150 | 41.3% | 45.1% | 39.9% – 50.3% |
| 152 | Kelvin Benjamin◦ provisional | KC | WR | 67 | 35.8% | 44.7% | 38.3% – 51.1% |
| 153 | Chad Williams◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | 28.3% | 43.5% | 36.8% – 50.4% |
| 154 | John Ross◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | 24.1% | 40.8% | 34.4% – 47.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).