NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2018
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 109
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2018 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | +1.05 | +0.57 | +0.37 – +0.77 |
| 2 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 108 | +0.68 | +0.46 | +0.28 – +0.64 |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 137 | +0.60 | +0.44 | +0.27 – +0.61 |
| 4 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 148 | +0.57 | +0.43 | +0.27 – +0.60 |
| 5 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 68 | +0.71 | +0.43 | +0.23 – +0.63 |
| 6 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 44 | +0.83 | +0.42 | +0.20 – +0.63 |
| 7 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 120 | +0.53 | +0.40 | +0.22 – +0.57 |
| 8 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 170 | +0.48 | +0.39 | +0.23 – +0.55 |
| 9 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 55 | +0.65 | +0.38 | +0.18 – +0.59 |
| 10 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 45 | +0.70 | +0.38 | +0.17 – +0.59 |
| 11 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 163 | +0.47 | +0.38 | +0.22 – +0.54 |
| 12 | Brandin Cooks | LA | WR | 117 | +0.49 | +0.37 | +0.20 – +0.55 |
| 13 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 87 | +0.52 | +0.37 | +0.18 – +0.56 |
| 14 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 130 | +0.47 | +0.37 | +0.20 – +0.54 |
| 15 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 92 | +0.50 | +0.37 | +0.18 – +0.55 |
| 16 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 96 | +0.48 | +0.36 | +0.17 – +0.54 |
| 17 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | KC | WR | 55 | +0.57 | +0.36 | +0.15 – +0.56 |
| 18 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 139 | +0.43 | +0.35 | +0.18 – +0.52 |
| 19 | Doug Baldwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 73 | +0.50 | +0.35 | +0.15 – +0.55 |
| 20 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 19 | +0.92 | +0.35 | +0.12 – +0.58 |
| 21 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 53 | +0.55 | +0.35 | +0.14 – +0.56 |
| 22 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 137 | +0.43 | +0.35 | +0.18 – +0.52 |
| 23 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | NE | WR | 71 | +0.50 | +0.35 | +0.15 – +0.55 |
| 24 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 25 | +0.77 | +0.35 | +0.12 – +0.58 |
| 25 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 39 | +0.61 | +0.35 | +0.13 – +0.56 |
| 26 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 170 | +0.41 | +0.35 | +0.19 – +0.50 |
| 27 | Kenny Golladay | DET | WR | 122 | +0.41 | +0.33 | +0.16 – +0.51 |
| 28 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | +0.54 | +0.33 | +0.12 – +0.55 |
| 29 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 65 | +0.44 | +0.32 | +0.12 – +0.52 |
| 30 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 30 | +0.58 | +0.32 | +0.10 – +0.55 |
| 31 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 154 | +0.37 | +0.32 | +0.16 – +0.48 |
| 32 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 92 | +0.39 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.50 |
| 33 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | +0.70 | +0.31 | +0.07 – +0.55 |
| 34 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TB | WR | 106 | +0.37 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.49 |
| 35 | Anthony Miller◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 54 | +0.42 | +0.31 | +0.10 – +0.51 |
| 36 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | LV | WR | 64 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 37 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 78 | +0.37 | +0.30 | +0.11 – +0.49 |
| 38 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 97 | +0.35 | +0.30 | +0.11 – +0.48 |
| 39 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | +0.37 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 40 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | NE | WR | 55 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.09 – +0.50 |
| 41 | Brandon LaFell◦ provisional | LV | WR | 16 | +0.60 | +0.30 | +0.06 – +0.53 |
| 42 | Keith Kirkwood◦ provisional | NO | WR | 21 | +0.52 | +0.30 | +0.06 – +0.53 |
| 43 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 45 | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.08 – +0.51 |
| 44 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 108 | +0.33 | +0.29 | +0.11 – +0.47 |
| 45 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 167 | +0.31 | +0.29 | +0.13 – +0.45 |
| 46 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 97 | +0.32 | +0.29 | +0.10 – +0.47 |
| 47 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 27 | +0.41 | +0.28 | +0.06 – +0.51 |
| 48 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.06 – +0.50 |
| 49 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | +0.39 | +0.28 | +0.05 – +0.51 |
| 50 | Austin Carr◦ provisional | NO | WR | 14 | +0.50 | +0.28 | +0.04 – +0.52 |
| 51 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 90 | +0.31 | +0.28 | +0.09 – +0.47 |
| 52 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 25 | +0.36 | +0.27 | +0.04 – +0.50 |
| 53 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 34 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.05 – +0.49 |
| 54 | Deontay Burnett◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 15 | +0.40 | +0.27 | +0.03 – +0.51 |
| 55 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 93 | +0.29 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.45 |
| 56 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | +0.36 | +0.27 | +0.03 – +0.50 |
| 57 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.04 – +0.49 |
| 58 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | +0.30 | +0.26 | +0.04 – +0.48 |
| 59 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 62 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.46 |
| 60 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 112 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.08 – +0.44 |
| 61 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 36 | +0.29 | +0.26 | +0.04 – +0.48 |
| 62 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 25 | +0.29 | +0.26 | +0.03 – +0.49 |
| 63 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 107 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.08 – +0.44 |
| 64 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.47 |
| 65 | Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | WR | 125 | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.08 – +0.42 |
| 66 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | DET | WR | 17 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.01 – +0.48 |
| 67 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 13 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.01 – +0.49 |
| 68 | Torrey Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.02 – +0.47 |
| 69 | Julian Edelman◦ provisional | NE | WR | 108 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.43 |
| 70 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 35 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.02 – +0.47 |
| 71 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 49 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.45 |
| 72 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 28 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.02 – +0.47 |
| 73 | David Moore◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 53 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.45 |
| 74 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 44 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.46 |
| 75 | Jordy Nelson◦ provisional | LV | WR | 89 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.43 |
| 76 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 95 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.42 |
| 77 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 52 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.45 |
| 78 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 103 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.05 – +0.42 |
| 79 | Ryan Grant◦ provisional | IND | WR | 52 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.44 |
| 80 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | +0.08 | +0.23 | -0.01 – +0.47 |
| 81 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 82 | +0.20 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.42 |
| 82 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 61 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.43 |
| 83 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 74 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.42 |
| 84 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 31 | +0.13 | +0.22 | +0.00 – +0.45 |
| 85 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 98 | +0.19 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 86 | Ryan Switzer◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 44 | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.01 – +0.43 |
| 87 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 46 | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.00 – +0.43 |
| 88 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 74 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 89 | Marvin Hall◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 20 | +0.03 | +0.22 | -0.02 – +0.45 |
| 90 | Cody Core◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | +0.08 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.44 |
| 91 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 24 | +0.05 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.44 |
| 92 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 21 | +0.02 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.45 |
| 93 | John Brown◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 98 | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.03 – +0.40 |
| 94 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 42 | +0.10 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.43 |
| 95 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | +0.05 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.43 |
| 96 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 22 | -0.01 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.44 |
| 97 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 53 | +0.12 | +0.21 | -0.00 – +0.41 |
| 98 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 38 | +0.08 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.43 |
| 99 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 47 | +0.10 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.42 |
| 100 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 85 | +0.15 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.40 |
| 101 | Pierre Garcon◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | +0.10 | +0.21 | -0.01 – +0.42 |
| 102 | Darius Jennings◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 15 | -0.12 | +0.21 | -0.03 – +0.44 |
| 103 | Martavis Bryant◦ provisional | LV | WR | 27 | +0.02 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.43 |
| 104 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 69 | +0.13 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.40 |
| 105 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 65 | +0.13 | +0.21 | +0.00 – +0.41 |
| 106 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 41 | +0.08 | +0.20 | -0.01 – +0.42 |
| 107 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 69 | +0.13 | +0.20 | +0.00 – +0.40 |
| 108 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | +0.02 | +0.20 | -0.02 – +0.43 |
| 109 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 41 | +0.05 | +0.20 | -0.02 – +0.41 |
| 110 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 67 | +0.10 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 111 | Justin Hunter◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 13 | -0.30 | +0.19 | -0.05 – +0.43 |
| 112 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 168 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.03 – +0.35 |
| 113 | Golden Tate | PHI | WR | 114 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +0.01 – +0.37 |
| 114 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | GB | WR | 74 | +0.10 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 115 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 23 | -0.11 | +0.19 | -0.04 – +0.42 |
| 116 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 31 | -0.03 | +0.19 | -0.04 – +0.41 |
| 117 | Bruce Ellington◦ provisional | DET | WR | 42 | +0.02 | +0.19 | -0.03 – +0.40 |
| 118 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 24 | -0.11 | +0.19 | -0.04 – +0.42 |
| 119 | Richie James◦ provisional | SF | WR | 14 | -0.34 | +0.18 | -0.05 – +0.42 |
| 120 | Marcell Ateman◦ provisional | LV | WR | 31 | -0.05 | +0.18 | -0.04 – +0.41 |
| 121 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 47 | +0.03 | +0.18 | -0.03 – +0.40 |
| 122 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 89 | +0.10 | +0.18 | -0.01 – +0.37 |
| 123 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | -0.13 | +0.18 | -0.05 – +0.41 |
| 124 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 94 | +0.09 | +0.18 | -0.01 – +0.36 |
| 125 | Andy Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 24 | -0.15 | +0.18 | -0.05 – +0.41 |
| 126 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 61 | +0.03 | +0.17 | -0.03 – +0.38 |
| 127 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 12 | -0.57 | +0.17 | -0.07 – +0.41 |
| 128 | Taywan Taylor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 57 | +0.01 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.37 |
| 129 | Andre Roberts◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | -0.36 | +0.16 | -0.07 – +0.40 |
| 130 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 95 | +0.05 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.35 |
| 131 | Deonte Thompson◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | -0.20 | +0.15 | -0.07 – +0.38 |
| 132 | Devin Funchess◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 79 | +0.02 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.35 |
| 133 | Josh Doctson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 78 | +0.00 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.34 |
| 134 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 40 | -0.14 | +0.15 | -0.07 – +0.36 |
| 135 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 46 | -0.10 | +0.15 | -0.07 – +0.36 |
| 136 | Trent Taylor◦ provisional | SF | WR | 41 | -0.16 | +0.14 | -0.08 – +0.36 |
| 137 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 26 | -0.33 | +0.14 | -0.09 – +0.37 |
| 138 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 150 | +0.06 | +0.14 | -0.03 – +0.30 |
| 139 | Quincy Enunwa◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 69 | -0.04 | +0.14 | -0.06 – +0.34 |
| 140 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 103 | +0.00 | +0.13 | -0.05 – +0.31 |
| 141 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 79 | -0.03 | +0.13 | -0.06 – +0.32 |
| 142 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 113 | +0.01 | +0.13 | -0.05 – +0.31 |
| 143 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 70 | -0.07 | +0.13 | -0.07 – +0.33 |
| 144 | Maurice Harris◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 47 | -0.19 | +0.12 | -0.09 – +0.33 |
| 145 | J.J. Nelson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 19 | -0.65 | +0.12 | -0.12 – +0.35 |
| 146 | Michael Crabtree◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 100 | -0.04 | +0.11 | -0.07 – +0.30 |
| 147 | Jermaine Kearse◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 76 | -0.09 | +0.11 | -0.08 – +0.31 |
| 148 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 32 | -0.39 | +0.11 | -0.12 – +0.33 |
| 149 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 150 | -0.00 | +0.10 | -0.06 – +0.27 |
| 150 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 53 | -0.22 | +0.10 | -0.11 – +0.31 |
| 151 | Antonio Callaway◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 82 | -0.17 | +0.07 | -0.12 – +0.26 |
| 152 | Chad Williams◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | -0.38 | +0.06 | -0.15 – +0.28 |
| 153 | John Ross◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | -0.37 | +0.04 | -0.17 – +0.24 |
| 154 | Kelvin Benjamin◦ provisional | KC | WR | 67 | -0.46 | -0.02 | -0.22 – +0.18 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).