NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2018
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 48
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2018 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 148 | 84.5% | 79.0% | 74.1% – 83.6% |
| 2 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 71 | 80.3% | 73.0% | 66.1% – 79.5% |
| 3 | Ryan Switzer◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 44 | 81.8% | 71.6% | 63.6% – 79.0% |
| 4 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 25 | 88.0% | 71.0% | 62.0% – 79.4% |
| 5 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 154 | 73.4% | 70.7% | 65.3% – 75.9% |
| 6 | Cole Beasley | DAL | WR | 87 | 74.7% | 70.3% | 63.6% – 76.5% |
| 7 | Danny Amendola | MIA | WR | 79 | 74.7% | 70.0% | 63.1% – 76.5% |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 98 | 72.5% | 69.1% | 62.7% – 75.2% |
| 9 | Adam Humphries | TB | WR | 106 | 71.7% | 68.7% | 62.5% – 74.7% |
| 10 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 42 | 76.2% | 68.7% | 60.5% – 76.5% |
| 11 | Taylor Gabriel | CHI | WR | 93 | 72.0% | 68.7% | 62.1% – 75.0% |
| 12 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 163 | 70.5% | 68.7% | 63.3% – 73.8% |
| 13 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 137 | 70.8% | 68.6% | 62.9% – 74.1% |
| 14 | Rashard Higgins | CLE | WR | 53 | 73.6% | 68.2% | 60.4% – 75.6% |
| 15 | Chester Rogers | IND | WR | 74 | 71.6% | 67.9% | 60.8% – 74.7% |
| 16 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 108 | 70.4% | 67.9% | 61.6% – 73.9% |
| 17 | Sammy Watkins | KC | WR | 55 | 72.7% | 67.8% | 60.1% – 75.2% |
| 18 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 55 | 72.7% | 67.8% | 60.1% – 75.2% |
| 19 | Jordy Nelson | LV | WR | 89 | 70.8% | 67.8% | 61.1% – 74.2% |
| 20 | Alshon Jeffery | PHI | WR | 92 | 70.7% | 67.8% | 61.1% – 74.1% |
| 21 | Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 107 | 70.1% | 67.7% | 61.4% – 73.7% |
| 22 | Bruce Ellington◦ provisional | DET | WR | 42 | 73.8% | 67.6% | 59.3% – 75.5% |
| 23 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 35 | 74.3% | 67.3% | 58.6% – 75.5% |
| 24 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | 92 | 69.6% | 67.0% | 60.4% – 73.4% |
| 25 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 25 | 76.0% | 66.9% | 57.6% – 75.7% |
| 26 | Jarius Wright | CAR | WR | 61 | 70.5% | 66.8% | 59.3% – 74.1% |
| 27 | Seth Roberts | LV | WR | 64 | 70.3% | 66.8% | 59.4% – 74.0% |
| 28 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 150 | 68.0% | 66.6% | 61.0% – 72.0% |
| 29 | Brandin Cooks | LA | WR | 117 | 68.4% | 66.6% | 60.4% – 72.5% |
| 30 | Julian Edelman | NE | WR | 108 | 68.5% | 66.6% | 60.3% – 72.7% |
| 31 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | WR | 96 | 68.8% | 66.6% | 60.0% – 72.9% |
| 32 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 45 | 71.1% | 66.5% | 58.3% – 74.3% |
| 33 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 39 | 71.8% | 66.5% | 58.0% – 74.6% |
| 34 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 15 | 80.0% | 66.4% | 56.4% – 75.9% |
| 35 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | WR | 73 | 68.5% | 66.0% | 58.8% – 72.9% |
| 36 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 170 | 66.5% | 65.5% | 60.2% – 70.7% |
| 37 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 167 | 66.5% | 65.5% | 60.1% – 70.8% |
| 38 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 19 | 73.7% | 65.5% | 55.7% – 74.7% |
| 39 | Brandon LaFell◦ provisional | LV | WR | 16 | 75.0% | 65.4% | 55.4% – 74.8% |
| 40 | DJ Moore | CAR | WR | 82 | 67.1% | 65.3% | 58.3% – 72.0% |
| 41 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 65.1% | 55.9% – 73.9% |
| 42 | Martavis Bryant◦ provisional | LV | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 65.1% | 55.9% – 73.9% |
| 43 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 130 | 66.1% | 65.1% | 59.1% – 70.9% |
| 44 | Keke Coutee◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 41 | 68.3% | 65.0% | 56.5% – 73.1% |
| 45 | Ryan Grant | IND | WR | 52 | 67.3% | 64.8% | 56.9% – 72.5% |
| 46 | Darius Jennings◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 15 | 73.3% | 64.8% | 54.7% – 74.4% |
| 47 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | 69.0% | 64.7% | 55.6% – 73.4% |
| 48 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | WR | 97 | 66.0% | 64.7% | 58.1% – 71.1% |
| 49 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 170 | 65.3% | 64.6% | 59.2% – 69.8% |
| 50 | Demaryius Thomas | HOU | WR | 90 | 65.6% | 64.4% | 57.6% – 71.0% |
| 51 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 28 | 67.9% | 64.3% | 55.1% – 73.1% |
| 52 | Willie Snead | BAL | WR | 95 | 65.3% | 64.2% | 57.5% – 70.7% |
| 53 | Laquon Treadwell | MIN | WR | 53 | 66.0% | 64.2% | 56.2% – 71.9% |
| 54 | Golden Tate | PHI | WR | 114 | 64.9% | 64.1% | 57.8% – 70.2% |
| 55 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 55.1% – 72.5% |
| 56 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 30 | 66.7% | 63.9% | 54.8% – 72.6% |
| 57 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 63.8% | 53.8% – 73.4% |
| 58 | Taywan Taylor | TEN | WR | 57 | 64.9% | 63.7% | 55.8% – 71.2% |
| 59 | DaeSean Hamilton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 46 | 65.2% | 63.7% | 55.4% – 71.6% |
| 60 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | WR | 103 | 64.1% | 63.5% | 56.9% – 69.8% |
| 61 | Deontay Burnett◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 63.2% | 53.1% – 72.9% |
| 62 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 137 | 63.5% | 63.2% | 57.3% – 68.9% |
| 63 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 120 | 63.3% | 63.0% | 56.8% – 69.0% |
| 64 | Chris Hogan | NE | WR | 55 | 63.6% | 63.0% | 55.0% – 70.6% |
| 65 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 63.6% | 62.9% | 54.5% – 71.0% |
| 66 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | DET | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 62.8% | 52.8% – 72.4% |
| 67 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 25 | 64.0% | 62.8% | 53.3% – 71.9% |
| 68 | Mike Williams | LAC | WR | 68 | 63.2% | 62.8% | 55.3% – 70.0% |
| 69 | Trent Taylor◦ provisional | SF | WR | 41 | 63.4% | 62.7% | 54.2% – 71.0% |
| 70 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | WR | 65 | 63.1% | 62.7% | 55.1% – 70.0% |
| 71 | Austin Carr◦ provisional | NO | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 62.7% | 52.4% – 72.5% |
| 72 | Richie James◦ provisional | SF | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 62.7% | 52.4% – 72.5% |
| 73 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 62.6% | 53.0% – 71.9% |
| 74 | Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 67 | 62.7% | 62.5% | 54.9% – 69.8% |
| 75 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 40 | 62.5% | 62.3% | 53.7% – 70.6% |
| 76 | Christian Kirk | ARI | WR | 69 | 62.3% | 62.3% | 54.8% – 69.5% |
| 77 | Randall Cobb | GB | WR | 61 | 62.3% | 62.2% | 54.5% – 69.7% |
| 78 | Damion Ratley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 62.1% | 52.3% – 71.5% |
| 79 | Keith Kirkwood◦ provisional | NO | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 62.1% | 52.3% – 71.5% |
| 80 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 62.0% | 51.6% – 72.0% |
| 81 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 34 | 61.8% | 62.0% | 53.1% – 70.6% |
| 82 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 168 | 61.9% | 62.0% | 56.5% – 67.3% |
| 83 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 139 | 61.9% | 62.0% | 56.0% – 67.7% |
| 84 | Chris Conley | KC | WR | 52 | 61.5% | 61.8% | 53.8% – 69.7% |
| 85 | Robert Foster◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 44 | 61.4% | 61.8% | 53.3% – 69.9% |
| 86 | Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | WR | 125 | 61.6% | 61.8% | 55.6% – 67.8% |
| 87 | Anthony Miller | CHI | WR | 54 | 61.1% | 61.6% | 53.6% – 69.4% |
| 88 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 108 | 61.1% | 61.4% | 55.0% – 67.8% |
| 89 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 113 | 61.1% | 61.4% | 55.0% – 67.6% |
| 90 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | 60.0% | 61.3% | 52.1% – 70.2% |
| 91 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 97 | 60.8% | 61.3% | 54.5% – 67.8% |
| 92 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 61.1% | 51.7% – 70.2% |
| 93 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | SF | WR | 45 | 60.0% | 61.1% | 52.7% – 69.3% |
| 94 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | WR | 65 | 60.0% | 60.9% | 53.3% – 68.3% |
| 95 | Maurice Harris◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 47 | 59.6% | 60.9% | 52.5% – 69.0% |
| 96 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | WR | 49 | 59.2% | 60.7% | 52.4% – 68.7% |
| 97 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | GB | WR | 36 | 58.3% | 60.5% | 51.6% – 69.1% |
| 98 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | IND | WR | 46 | 58.7% | 60.5% | 52.1% – 68.6% |
| 99 | Andre Roberts◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | 55.6% | 60.4% | 50.3% – 70.0% |
| 100 | A.J. Green | CIN | WR | 78 | 59.0% | 60.2% | 52.9% – 67.3% |
| 101 | Deonte Thompson◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 30 | 56.7% | 60.1% | 50.8% – 69.0% |
| 102 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 60.1% | 51.1% – 68.7% |
| 103 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 60.1% | 51.1% – 68.7% |
| 104 | Josh Gordon | NE | WR | 71 | 57.8% | 59.5% | 52.1% – 66.8% |
| 105 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 59.5% | 49.9% – 68.8% |
| 106 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 52.6% | 59.5% | 49.5% – 69.1% |
| 107 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 41 | 56.1% | 59.4% | 50.7% – 67.8% |
| 108 | Allen Robinson | CHI | WR | 95 | 57.9% | 59.3% | 52.5% – 66.0% |
| 109 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 31 | 54.8% | 59.3% | 50.1% – 68.2% |
| 110 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 112 | 58.0% | 59.3% | 52.8% – 65.6% |
| 111 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 26 | 53.8% | 59.2% | 49.7% – 68.5% |
| 112 | Kenny Stills | MIA | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 59.2% | 51.5% – 66.6% |
| 113 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 62 | 56.5% | 58.9% | 51.2% – 66.5% |
| 114 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 47 | 55.3% | 58.8% | 50.4% – 67.0% |
| 115 | Kenny Golladay | DET | WR | 122 | 57.4% | 58.7% | 52.5% – 64.9% |
| 116 | Josh Doctson | WAS | WR | 78 | 56.4% | 58.6% | 51.3% – 65.7% |
| 117 | Marvin Hall◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 58.6% | 48.7% – 68.2% |
| 118 | Torrey Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 53.1% | 58.6% | 49.4% – 67.5% |
| 119 | Josh Reynolds | LA | WR | 53 | 54.7% | 58.3% | 50.1% – 66.2% |
| 120 | Devin Funchess | CAR | WR | 79 | 55.7% | 58.1% | 50.9% – 65.3% |
| 121 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 48.5% – 67.5% |
| 122 | DeSean Jackson | TB | WR | 74 | 55.4% | 58.1% | 50.7% – 65.3% |
| 123 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 31 | 51.6% | 58.0% | 48.8% – 67.0% |
| 124 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | WR | 69 | 55.1% | 58.0% | 50.4% – 65.4% |
| 125 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 57.5% | 47.8% – 67.0% |
| 126 | Keelan Cole | JAX | WR | 70 | 54.3% | 57.5% | 50.0% – 64.9% |
| 127 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 44 | 52.3% | 57.4% | 48.9% – 65.8% |
| 128 | Zay Jones | BUF | WR | 103 | 54.4% | 56.8% | 50.2% – 63.4% |
| 129 | Donte Moncrief | JAX | WR | 89 | 53.9% | 56.8% | 49.8% – 63.7% |
| 130 | Marcell Ateman◦ provisional | LV | WR | 31 | 48.4% | 56.8% | 47.5% – 65.8% |
| 131 | Andy Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 56.7% | 47.0% – 66.2% |
| 132 | Pierre Garcon◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 56.7% | 48.3% – 64.9% |
| 133 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 56.7% | 48.3% – 64.9% |
| 134 | Michael Crabtree | BAL | WR | 100 | 54.0% | 56.6% | 49.9% – 63.3% |
| 135 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | 48.6% | 56.4% | 47.4% – 65.3% |
| 136 | Auden Tate◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 12 | 33.3% | 56.4% | 45.8% – 66.7% |
| 137 | Robbie Chosen | NYJ | WR | 94 | 53.2% | 56.2% | 49.3% – 63.0% |
| 138 | Antonio Callaway | CLE | WR | 82 | 52.4% | 56.0% | 48.8% – 63.1% |
| 139 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 150 | 54.0% | 56.0% | 50.1% – 61.7% |
| 140 | Cody Core◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 29 | 44.8% | 55.6% | 46.3% – 64.8% |
| 141 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | WR | 74 | 51.3% | 55.6% | 48.2% – 62.9% |
| 142 | David Moore | SEA | WR | 53 | 49.1% | 55.3% | 47.1% – 63.3% |
| 143 | J.J. Nelson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 19 | 36.8% | 55.0% | 44.9% – 64.8% |
| 144 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 32 | 43.8% | 54.8% | 45.6% – 63.8% |
| 145 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 40.0% | 54.6% | 44.9% – 64.0% |
| 146 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 85 | 49.4% | 54.0% | 46.9% – 61.1% |
| 147 | Jermaine Kearse | NYJ | WR | 76 | 48.7% | 53.9% | 46.5% – 61.2% |
| 148 | Justin Hunter◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 13 | 23.1% | 53.8% | 43.3% – 64.2% |
| 149 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 69 | 47.8% | 53.7% | 46.1% – 61.2% |
| 150 | James Washington◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 53.3% | 44.4% – 62.1% |
| 151 | Chad Williams◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 46 | 37.0% | 49.8% | 41.3% – 58.3% |
| 152 | John Brown | BAL | WR | 98 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 42.4% – 56.0% |
| 153 | John Ross | CIN | WR | 58 | 36.2% | 47.9% | 40.0% – 55.9% |
| 154 | Kelvin Benjamin | KC | WR | 67 | 37.3% | 47.7% | 40.1% – 55.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).