NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2017
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 159
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2017 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 149 | 59.1% | 53.4% | 48.7% – 58.1% |
| 2 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | NE | WR | 86 | 61.6% | 52.9% | 47.6% – 58.1% |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 105 | 58.1% | 52.1% | 47.0% – 57.1% |
| 4 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 159 | 56.0% | 52.0% | 47.4% – 56.6% |
| 5 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 165 | 55.8% | 52.0% | 47.4% – 56.6% |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | LA | WR | 94 | 58.5% | 52.0% | 46.8% – 57.1% |
| 7 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 79 | 58.2% | 51.5% | 46.1% – 56.8% |
| 8 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 62 | 59.7% | 51.4% | 45.8% – 56.9% |
| 9 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 96 | 56.3% | 51.2% | 46.0% – 56.3% |
| 10 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 57 | 59.7% | 51.2% | 45.6% – 56.7% |
| 11 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | GB | WR | 118 | 55.1% | 51.1% | 46.1% – 56.0% |
| 12 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 84 | 56.0% | 50.8% | 45.6% – 56.1% |
| 13 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 55 | 58.2% | 50.7% | 45.1% – 56.3% |
| 14 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | LV | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 50.7% | 45.2% – 56.2% |
| 15 | Kelvin Benjamin◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 77 | 55.8% | 50.6% | 45.3% – 56.0% |
| 16 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TB | WR | 83 | 55.4% | 50.6% | 45.3% – 55.9% |
| 17 | Rishard Matthews◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 87 | 55.2% | 50.6% | 45.4% – 55.9% |
| 18 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 95 | 54.7% | 50.6% | 45.4% – 55.8% |
| 19 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | NO | WR | 70 | 55.7% | 50.4% | 45.0% – 55.9% |
| 20 | Golden Tate◦ provisional | DET | WR | 120 | 53.3% | 50.4% | 45.4% – 55.3% |
| 21 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 148 | 52.7% | 50.3% | 45.6% – 55.0% |
| 22 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 29 | 62.1% | 50.3% | 44.3% – 56.3% |
| 23 | Eric Decker◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 83 | 54.2% | 50.2% | 44.9% – 55.5% |
| 24 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 108 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 45.0% – 55.0% |
| 25 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 32 | 59.4% | 50.0% | 44.1% – 56.0% |
| 26 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 43.8% – 56.2% |
| 27 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | 63.6% | 50.0% | 43.9% – 56.1% |
| 28 | Doug Baldwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 117 | 52.1% | 49.8% | 44.9% – 54.8% |
| 29 | Jeremy Kerley◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 49.7% | 43.7% – 55.8% |
| 30 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 25 | 60.0% | 49.7% | 43.7% – 55.8% |
| 31 | Michael Campanaro◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 49.7% | 43.7% – 55.8% |
| 32 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | LA | WR | 70 | 52.9% | 49.6% | 44.1% – 55.0% |
| 33 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 50 | 54.0% | 49.5% | 43.8% – 55.2% |
| 34 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 44 | 54.5% | 49.5% | 43.7% – 55.3% |
| 35 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 32 | 56.3% | 49.5% | 43.5% – 55.4% |
| 36 | Jermaine Kearse◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 103 | 51.5% | 49.4% | 44.4% – 54.5% |
| 37 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SF | WR | 105 | 51.4% | 49.4% | 44.4% – 54.5% |
| 38 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | 62.5% | 49.4% | 43.2% – 55.6% |
| 39 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 162 | 50.6% | 49.4% | 44.8% – 54.0% |
| 40 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | LA | WR | 85 | 51.8% | 49.4% | 44.1% – 54.6% |
| 41 | Ryan Grant◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 49.3% | 43.8% – 54.8% |
| 42 | Trent Taylor◦ provisional | SF | WR | 61 | 52.5% | 49.3% | 43.8% – 54.9% |
| 43 | Kendall Wright◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 92 | 51.1% | 49.2% | 44.0% – 54.4% |
| 44 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 142 | 50.0% | 49.0% | 44.3% – 53.7% |
| 45 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 81 | 50.6% | 49.0% | 43.7% – 54.3% |
| 46 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 18 | 55.6% | 48.9% | 42.7% – 55.0% |
| 47 | Brenton Bersin◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 14 | 57.1% | 48.8% | 42.6% – 55.1% |
| 48 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | IND | WR | 47 | 51.1% | 48.8% | 43.1% – 54.5% |
| 49 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 39 | 51.3% | 48.7% | 42.9% – 54.6% |
| 50 | Brandon Coleman◦ provisional | NO | WR | 37 | 51.3% | 48.7% | 42.9% – 54.6% |
| 51 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | NE | WR | 115 | 49.6% | 48.7% | 43.8% – 53.7% |
| 52 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 33 | 51.5% | 48.7% | 42.8% – 54.6% |
| 53 | Michael Crabtree◦ provisional | LV | WR | 103 | 49.5% | 48.7% | 43.6% – 53.7% |
| 54 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 138 | 49.3% | 48.6% | 43.9% – 53.4% |
| 55 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 92 | 48.9% | 48.4% | 43.2% – 53.6% |
| 56 | Brice Butler◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 42.3% – 54.4% |
| 57 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 115 | 48.7% | 48.4% | 43.4% – 53.3% |
| 58 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 175 | 48.6% | 48.4% | 43.9% – 52.8% |
| 59 | Jordan Taylor◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 20 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 42.2% – 54.5% |
| 60 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | WR | 161 | 48.4% | 48.3% | 43.7% – 52.9% |
| 61 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 43 | 48.8% | 48.3% | 42.5% – 54.0% |
| 62 | Marqise Lee◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 97 | 48.4% | 48.2% | 43.1% – 53.4% |
| 63 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 93 | 48.4% | 48.2% | 43.0% – 53.4% |
| 64 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 48.2% | 42.4% – 54.1% |
| 65 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 48.2% | 42.4% – 54.1% |
| 66 | Jordy Nelson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 89 | 48.3% | 48.2% | 43.0% – 53.4% |
| 67 | Martavis Bryant◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 85 | 48.2% | 48.1% | 42.9% – 53.4% |
| 68 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 48.1% | 42.0% – 54.2% |
| 69 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | 47.9% | 48.0% | 42.6% – 53.5% |
| 70 | Pierre Garcon◦ provisional | SF | WR | 67 | 47.8% | 48.0% | 42.5% – 53.5% |
| 71 | Demaryius Thomas◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 142 | 47.9% | 48.0% | 43.3% – 52.8% |
| 72 | Tre McBride◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 48.0% | 41.8% – 54.2% |
| 73 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | NE | WR | 59 | 47.5% | 47.9% | 42.4% – 53.5% |
| 74 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 34 | 47.1% | 47.9% | 42.0% – 53.8% |
| 75 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 105 | 47.6% | 47.9% | 42.9% – 53.0% |
| 76 | Terrance Williams◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 80 | 47.5% | 47.9% | 42.6% – 53.2% |
| 77 | Devin Funchess◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 112 | 47.3% | 47.8% | 42.8% – 52.8% |
| 78 | Kasen Williams◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 47.7% | 41.6% – 53.9% |
| 79 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | LV | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 47.7% | 41.6% – 53.9% |
| 80 | De'Anthony Thomas◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 43.8% | 47.7% | 41.5% – 53.9% |
| 81 | Tavarres King◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | 46.0% | 47.7% | 41.9% – 53.6% |
| 82 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 123 | 47.1% | 47.7% | 42.8% – 52.6% |
| 83 | Brandon Tate◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 47.7% | 41.5% – 53.9% |
| 84 | Deonte Thompson◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 69 | 46.4% | 47.6% | 42.2% – 53.0% |
| 85 | Tyrell Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 69 | 46.4% | 47.6% | 42.2% – 53.0% |
| 86 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 46 | 45.6% | 47.6% | 41.8% – 53.3% |
| 87 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 47.5% | 41.5% – 53.6% |
| 88 | J.J. Nelson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 61 | 45.9% | 47.5% | 42.0% – 53.0% |
| 89 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 97 | 46.4% | 47.5% | 42.3% – 52.6% |
| 90 | Louis Murphy◦ provisional | SF | WR | 17 | 41.2% | 47.4% | 41.3% – 53.6% |
| 91 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 17 | 41.2% | 47.4% | 41.3% – 53.6% |
| 92 | Chad Hansen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 41.2% | 47.4% | 41.3% – 53.6% |
| 93 | Jeremy Maclin◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 72 | 45.8% | 47.4% | 42.0% – 52.8% |
| 94 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 51 | 45.1% | 47.4% | 41.7% – 53.0% |
| 95 | Amara Darboh◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 38.5% | 47.4% | 41.1% – 53.6% |
| 96 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 49 | 44.9% | 47.3% | 41.7% – 53.0% |
| 97 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | 42.3% | 47.3% | 41.3% – 53.3% |
| 98 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 22 | 40.9% | 47.2% | 41.1% – 53.3% |
| 99 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 39 | 43.6% | 47.2% | 41.4% – 53.1% |
| 100 | Mike Wallace◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 92 | 45.6% | 47.2% | 42.0% – 52.4% |
| 101 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | GB | WR | 31 | 41.9% | 47.1% | 41.2% – 53.1% |
| 102 | Leonte Carroo◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 47.1% | 40.9% – 53.4% |
| 103 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | 44.6% | 47.1% | 41.6% – 52.6% |
| 104 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 63 | 44.4% | 47.1% | 41.6% – 52.6% |
| 105 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 95 | 45.3% | 47.0% | 41.9% – 52.2% |
| 106 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 46.9% | 41.1% – 52.8% |
| 107 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 83 | 44.6% | 46.9% | 41.6% – 52.2% |
| 108 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 51 | 43.1% | 46.9% | 41.3% – 52.6% |
| 109 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 46.9% | 40.7% – 53.1% |
| 110 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 143 | 45.5% | 46.9% | 42.1% – 51.6% |
| 111 | Tommylee Lewis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | 33.3% | 46.8% | 40.6% – 53.1% |
| 112 | Taywan Taylor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 28 | 39.3% | 46.8% | 40.8% – 52.8% |
| 113 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 103 | 44.7% | 46.8% | 41.7% – 51.8% |
| 114 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 56 | 42.9% | 46.7% | 41.2% – 52.3% |
| 115 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 40.8% – 52.5% |
| 116 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | NO | WR | 16 | 31.3% | 46.6% | 40.4% – 52.8% |
| 117 | Braxton Miller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 29 | 37.9% | 46.5% | 40.6% – 52.5% |
| 118 | Michael Clark◦ provisional | GB | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 46.5% | 40.3% – 52.8% |
| 119 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 51 | 41.2% | 46.4% | 40.8% – 52.1% |
| 120 | Emmanuel Sanders◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 92 | 43.5% | 46.4% | 41.3% – 51.6% |
| 121 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | 38.9% | 46.4% | 40.6% – 52.3% |
| 122 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 37.5% | 46.3% | 40.4% – 52.3% |
| 123 | Josh Malone◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 17 | 29.4% | 46.3% | 40.2% – 52.5% |
| 124 | ArDarius Stewart◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | 23.1% | 46.2% | 40.0% – 52.5% |
| 125 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | 33.3% | 46.2% | 40.1% – 52.2% |
| 126 | T.Y. Hilton◦ provisional | IND | WR | 109 | 43.1% | 46.1% | 41.1% – 51.1% |
| 127 | Kaelin Clay◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 20 | 30.0% | 46.1% | 40.0% – 52.2% |
| 128 | Bryce Treggs◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 27.8% | 46.0% | 39.9% – 52.2% |
| 129 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 42 | 38.1% | 46.0% | 40.3% – 51.8% |
| 130 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 13 | 15.4% | 45.6% | 39.4% – 51.9% |
| 131 | Torrey Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 68 | 39.7% | 45.6% | 40.2% – 51.0% |
| 132 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 69 | 39.1% | 45.4% | 40.0% – 50.8% |
| 133 | Brandon LaFell◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 89 | 40.5% | 45.4% | 40.2% – 50.6% |
| 134 | Josh Doctson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 78 | 39.7% | 45.4% | 40.1% – 50.7% |
| 135 | Roger Lewis◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 72 | 38.9% | 45.2% | 39.9% – 50.6% |
| 136 | Ricardo Louis◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 61 | 37.7% | 45.2% | 39.7% – 50.8% |
| 137 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | LA | WR | 19 | 21.1% | 45.2% | 39.1% – 51.4% |
| 138 | Travis Rudolph◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 22 | 22.7% | 45.0% | 39.0% – 51.1% |
| 139 | Dez Bryant◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 132 | 40.9% | 44.8% | 40.1% – 49.6% |
| 140 | Kenny Britt◦ provisional | NE | WR | 43 | 32.6% | 44.8% | 39.1% – 50.6% |
| 141 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 50 | 34.0% | 44.7% | 39.1% – 50.4% |
| 142 | Markus Wheaton◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 17 | 11.8% | 44.6% | 38.5% – 50.8% |
| 143 | Amari Cooper◦ provisional | LV | WR | 96 | 38.5% | 44.5% | 39.4% – 49.6% |
| 144 | Bruce Ellington◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 58 | 34.5% | 44.5% | 39.0% – 50.0% |
| 145 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 74 | 35.1% | 44.0% | 38.7% – 49.4% |
| 146 | John Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 56 | 32.1% | 43.9% | 38.4% – 49.5% |
| 147 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | LA | WR | 22 | 13.6% | 43.9% | 37.9% – 50.0% |
| 148 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 48 | 29.2% | 43.7% | 38.1% – 49.4% |
| 149 | Corey Coleman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 58 | 31.0% | 43.5% | 38.0% – 49.1% |
| 150 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 65 | 32.3% | 43.5% | 38.1% – 49.0% |
| 151 | Kamar Aiken◦ provisional | IND | WR | 44 | 25.0% | 43.1% | 37.4% – 48.8% |
| 152 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | 20.0% | 43.0% | 37.2% – 48.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).