NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2017
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 53
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2017 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden Tate | DET | WR | 120 | 76.7% | 71.1% | 65.3% – 76.6% |
| 2 | Ted Ginn | NO | WR | 70 | 75.7% | 68.3% | 61.3% – 75.0% |
| 3 | Adam Humphries | TB | WR | 83 | 73.5% | 67.7% | 60.9% – 74.1% |
| 4 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 79 | 73.4% | 67.4% | 60.6% – 74.0% |
| 5 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 105 | 71.4% | 67.1% | 60.8% – 73.1% |
| 6 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 149 | 69.8% | 66.8% | 61.3% – 72.2% |
| 7 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | WR | 161 | 69.6% | 66.8% | 61.5% – 72.0% |
| 8 | Randall Cobb | GB | WR | 93 | 71.0% | 66.5% | 59.9% – 72.7% |
| 9 | Jeremy Kerley◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 27 | 81.5% | 66.3% | 57.4% – 74.7% |
| 10 | Danny Amendola | NE | WR | 86 | 70.9% | 66.2% | 59.5% – 72.7% |
| 11 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | WR | 96 | 69.8% | 65.8% | 59.3% – 72.0% |
| 12 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 84 | 70.2% | 65.7% | 58.9% – 72.2% |
| 13 | De'Anthony Thomas◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 87.5% | 65.2% | 55.6% – 74.4% |
| 14 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 162 | 67.3% | 65.1% | 59.7% – 70.4% |
| 15 | Trent Taylor | SF | WR | 61 | 70.5% | 64.9% | 57.4% – 72.1% |
| 16 | Ryan Grant | WAS | WR | 65 | 69.2% | 64.4% | 57.0% – 71.5% |
| 17 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | GB | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 64.3% | 55.5% – 72.7% |
| 18 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 95 | 67.4% | 64.2% | 57.6% – 70.5% |
| 19 | Allen Hurns | JAX | WR | 57 | 68.4% | 63.6% | 56.0% – 71.0% |
| 20 | Albert Wilson | KC | WR | 62 | 67.7% | 63.5% | 56.0% – 70.7% |
| 21 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 94 | 66.0% | 63.3% | 56.6% – 69.7% |
| 22 | Terrance Williams | DAL | WR | 80 | 66.3% | 63.2% | 56.2% – 69.9% |
| 23 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 85 | 65.9% | 63.0% | 56.2% – 69.7% |
| 24 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | WR | 95 | 65.3% | 62.8% | 56.2% – 69.3% |
| 25 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 25 | 72.0% | 62.8% | 53.6% – 71.6% |
| 26 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 159 | 64.1% | 62.7% | 57.2% – 68.1% |
| 27 | Seth Roberts | LV | WR | 65 | 66.1% | 62.7% | 55.3% – 69.9% |
| 28 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | 72.7% | 62.7% | 53.3% – 71.6% |
| 29 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 142 | 64.1% | 62.6% | 56.8% – 68.2% |
| 30 | Eric Decker | TEN | WR | 83 | 65.1% | 62.5% | 55.6% – 69.2% |
| 31 | Michael Campanaro◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 62.5% | 53.4% – 71.2% |
| 32 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | WR | 117 | 64.1% | 62.4% | 56.2% – 68.4% |
| 33 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 32 | 68.8% | 62.4% | 53.6% – 70.8% |
| 34 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | 75.0% | 62.3% | 52.5% – 71.7% |
| 35 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 29 | 69.0% | 62.2% | 53.2% – 70.8% |
| 36 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | WR | 103 | 64.1% | 62.2% | 55.7% – 68.5% |
| 37 | Kendall Wright | CHI | WR | 92 | 64.1% | 62.1% | 55.4% – 68.6% |
| 38 | Jermaine Kearse | NYJ | WR | 103 | 63.1% | 61.5% | 55.0% – 67.8% |
| 39 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 51 | 64.7% | 61.5% | 53.6% – 69.2% |
| 40 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 118 | 62.7% | 61.4% | 55.2% – 67.4% |
| 41 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 71 | 63.4% | 61.3% | 54.0% – 68.4% |
| 42 | Braxton Miller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 29 | 65.5% | 61.0% | 52.0% – 69.7% |
| 43 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 60.9% | 51.0% – 70.3% |
| 44 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | WR | 69 | 62.3% | 60.6% | 53.3% – 67.8% |
| 45 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 165 | 61.2% | 60.5% | 55.0% – 65.9% |
| 46 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 60.5% | 50.9% – 69.9% |
| 47 | Tommylee Lewis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 60.3% | 50.4% – 69.8% |
| 48 | Jordan Taylor◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 20 | 65.0% | 60.3% | 50.7% – 69.5% |
| 49 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 55 | 61.8% | 60.2% | 52.3% – 67.8% |
| 50 | Rishard Matthews | TEN | WR | 87 | 60.9% | 60.0% | 53.1% – 66.7% |
| 51 | Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | WR | 77 | 61.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% – 67.0% |
| 52 | Brandon Coleman◦ provisional | NO | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 60.0% | 51.4% – 68.3% |
| 53 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 60.0% | 51.4% – 68.3% |
| 54 | Brice Butler◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 59.7% | 50.4% – 68.7% |
| 55 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 50 | 60.0% | 59.2% | 51.1% – 67.0% |
| 56 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 148 | 59.5% | 59.2% | 53.4% – 64.8% |
| 57 | Pierre Garcon | SF | WR | 67 | 59.7% | 59.2% | 51.7% – 66.4% |
| 58 | Jordy Nelson | GB | WR | 89 | 59.6% | 59.1% | 52.3% – 65.8% |
| 59 | Amara Darboh◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 59.1% | 49.0% – 68.8% |
| 60 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 32 | 59.4% | 58.8% | 49.9% – 67.4% |
| 61 | Martavis Bryant | PIT | WR | 85 | 58.8% | 58.7% | 51.7% – 65.5% |
| 62 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 39 | 59.0% | 58.7% | 50.1% – 67.0% |
| 63 | DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 97 | 58.8% | 58.7% | 52.0% – 65.2% |
| 64 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | LA | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 58.6% | 49.2% – 67.8% |
| 65 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 58.6% | 49.2% – 67.8% |
| 66 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 17 | 58.8% | 58.5% | 48.7% – 68.0% |
| 67 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 17 | 58.8% | 58.5% | 48.7% – 68.0% |
| 68 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | WR | 142 | 58.5% | 58.5% | 52.6% – 64.2% |
| 69 | Brandon LaFell | CIN | WR | 89 | 58.4% | 58.4% | 51.6% – 65.2% |
| 70 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 43 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 50.0% – 66.5% |
| 71 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | LA | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 58.3% | 48.6% – 67.7% |
| 72 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 58.2% | 49.0% – 67.2% |
| 73 | Brenton Bersin◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 14 | 57.1% | 58.2% | 48.1% – 67.9% |
| 74 | Chris Hogan | NE | WR | 59 | 57.6% | 58.0% | 50.3% – 65.6% |
| 75 | Taywan Taylor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 28 | 57.1% | 58.0% | 48.9% – 66.9% |
| 76 | Marqise Lee | JAX | WR | 97 | 57.7% | 58.0% | 51.3% – 64.5% |
| 77 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 57.9% | 49.2% – 66.5% |
| 78 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 57.9% | 48.4% – 67.0% |
| 79 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 49 | 57.1% | 57.8% | 49.7% – 65.8% |
| 80 | Cole Beasley | DAL | WR | 63 | 57.1% | 57.7% | 50.1% – 65.2% |
| 81 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 44 | 56.8% | 57.7% | 49.4% – 65.8% |
| 82 | Tre McBride◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 57.3% | 47.3% – 67.0% |
| 83 | Mike Wallace | BAL | WR | 92 | 56.5% | 57.2% | 50.4% – 63.9% |
| 84 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 108 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 50.7% – 63.5% |
| 85 | Brandin Cooks | NE | WR | 115 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 50.8% – 63.3% |
| 86 | Chad Hansen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 57.1% | 47.3% – 66.7% |
| 87 | Michael Crabtree | LV | WR | 103 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 50.5% – 63.5% |
| 88 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | IND | WR | 47 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 48.8% – 65.0% |
| 89 | Devin Funchess | CAR | WR | 112 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 50.6% – 63.2% |
| 90 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 33 | 54.5% | 56.9% | 48.1% – 65.6% |
| 91 | Sammy Watkins | LA | WR | 70 | 55.7% | 56.9% | 49.5% – 64.1% |
| 92 | Jeremy Maclin | BAL | WR | 72 | 55.6% | 56.8% | 49.4% – 64.0% |
| 93 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 51 | 54.9% | 56.7% | 48.6% – 64.6% |
| 94 | Leonte Carroo◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 56.7% | 46.6% – 66.5% |
| 95 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 37 | 54.0% | 56.6% | 48.0% – 65.1% |
| 96 | Deonte Thompson | BUF | WR | 69 | 55.1% | 56.5% | 49.1% – 63.8% |
| 97 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 39 | 53.8% | 56.5% | 47.9% – 64.9% |
| 98 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | NO | WR | 16 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 46.6% – 66.1% |
| 99 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 53.1% | 56.4% | 47.5% – 65.2% |
| 100 | Kenny Stills | MIA | WR | 105 | 55.2% | 56.3% | 49.8% – 62.7% |
| 101 | Kasen Williams◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 46.5% – 65.8% |
| 102 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | LV | WR | 18 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 46.5% – 65.8% |
| 103 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 50 | 54.0% | 56.3% | 48.2% – 64.2% |
| 104 | ArDarius Stewart◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 56.0% | 45.9% – 65.9% |
| 105 | Paul Richardson | SEA | WR | 81 | 54.3% | 55.9% | 48.9% – 62.9% |
| 106 | Robbie Chosen | NYJ | WR | 115 | 54.8% | 55.9% | 49.6% – 62.2% |
| 107 | DeSean Jackson | TB | WR | 92 | 54.4% | 55.8% | 49.0% – 62.6% |
| 108 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 51 | 52.9% | 55.7% | 47.7% – 63.7% |
| 109 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 175 | 54.9% | 55.7% | 50.2% – 61.1% |
| 110 | Louis Murphy◦ provisional | SF | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 55.7% | 45.8% – 65.3% |
| 111 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 46 | 52.2% | 55.5% | 47.3% – 63.6% |
| 112 | Torrey Smith | PHI | WR | 68 | 52.9% | 55.3% | 47.9% – 62.7% |
| 113 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 55.2% | 45.8% – 64.5% |
| 114 | Brandon Tate◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 55.2% | 45.1% – 65.0% |
| 115 | Travis Benjamin | LAC | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 47.5% – 62.5% |
| 116 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 47.5% – 62.5% |
| 117 | Marquise Goodwin | SF | WR | 105 | 53.3% | 55.0% | 48.5% – 61.5% |
| 118 | Bennie Fowler | DEN | WR | 56 | 51.8% | 55.0% | 47.1% – 62.8% |
| 119 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 46.3% – 63.6% |
| 120 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 54.5% | 45.1% – 63.7% |
| 121 | Tavarres King◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 54.4% | 45.7% – 63.0% |
| 122 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 109 | 52.3% | 54.3% | 47.8% – 60.7% |
| 123 | A.J. Green | CIN | WR | 143 | 52.4% | 54.1% | 48.2% – 59.9% |
| 124 | Dez Bryant | DAL | WR | 132 | 52.3% | 54.0% | 48.0% – 60.0% |
| 125 | Bruce Ellington | HOU | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 46.2% – 61.7% |
| 126 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 34 | 47.1% | 54.0% | 45.1% – 62.7% |
| 127 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 38 | 47.4% | 53.8% | 45.2% – 62.3% |
| 128 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 92 | 51.1% | 53.8% | 46.9% – 60.5% |
| 129 | Keelan Cole | JAX | WR | 83 | 50.6% | 53.6% | 46.6% – 60.6% |
| 130 | Roger Lewis | NYG | WR | 72 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 46.2% – 60.9% |
| 131 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 138 | 51.4% | 53.4% | 47.4% – 59.3% |
| 132 | Kenny Britt◦ provisional | NE | WR | 43 | 46.5% | 53.1% | 44.7% – 61.4% |
| 133 | Amari Cooper | LV | WR | 96 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 46.2% – 59.7% |
| 134 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 52.9% | 42.8% – 63.0% |
| 135 | Josh Malone◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 52.8% | 43.0% – 62.5% |
| 136 | J.J. Nelson | ARI | WR | 61 | 47.5% | 52.6% | 44.9% – 60.2% |
| 137 | Michael Clark◦ provisional | GB | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 52.1% | 42.1% – 62.1% |
| 138 | Travis Rudolph◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 22 | 36.4% | 51.9% | 42.4% – 61.4% |
| 139 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 42 | 42.9% | 51.5% | 43.1% – 59.9% |
| 140 | Ricardo Louis | CLE | WR | 61 | 44.3% | 50.8% | 43.1% – 58.5% |
| 141 | Jaron Brown | ARI | WR | 69 | 44.9% | 50.8% | 43.3% – 58.2% |
| 142 | Bryce Treggs◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 27.8% | 50.6% | 40.9% – 60.3% |
| 143 | Kaelin Clay◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 20 | 30.0% | 50.6% | 41.0% – 60.2% |
| 144 | Josh Doctson | WAS | WR | 78 | 44.9% | 50.3% | 43.1% – 57.5% |
| 145 | Alshon Jeffery | PHI | WR | 123 | 46.3% | 50.0% | 43.8% – 56.1% |
| 146 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 48 | 39.6% | 49.4% | 41.3% – 57.6% |
| 147 | Corey Coleman | CLE | WR | 58 | 39.7% | 48.6% | 40.8% – 56.4% |
| 148 | Markus Wheaton◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 17 | 17.6% | 48.5% | 38.7% – 58.3% |
| 149 | John Brown | ARI | WR | 56 | 37.5% | 47.6% | 39.8% – 55.5% |
| 150 | Kamar Aiken◦ provisional | IND | WR | 44 | 34.1% | 47.3% | 39.1% – 55.7% |
| 151 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | 28.6% | 46.5% | 37.8% – 55.3% |
| 152 | Zay Jones | BUF | WR | 74 | 36.5% | 45.6% | 38.4% – 52.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).