NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2016
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 102
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2016 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Beasley◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 98 | 69.4% | 59.3% | 53.5% – 64.9% |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 112 | 62.5% | 56.3% | 50.7% – 61.8% |
| 3 | Pierre Garcon | WAS | WR | 114 | 62.3% | 56.3% | 50.7% – 61.8% |
| 4 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 121 | 61.2% | 55.8% | 50.3% – 61.3% |
| 5 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 130 | 60.8% | 55.8% | 50.4% – 61.1% |
| 6 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 92 | 62.0% | 55.4% | 49.5% – 61.2% |
| 7 | Jordy Nelson | GB | WR | 152 | 58.6% | 54.9% | 49.8% – 60.0% |
| 8 | Terrance Williams◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 61 | 62.3% | 54.3% | 47.9% – 60.7% |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 150 | 57.3% | 54.2% | 49.0% – 59.3% |
| 10 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | WR | 126 | 57.9% | 54.2% | 48.7% – 59.6% |
| 11 | Mohamed Sanu◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 82 | 59.8% | 54.1% | 48.0% – 60.1% |
| 12 | Anquan Boldin◦ provisional | DET | WR | 95 | 59.0% | 54.1% | 48.2% – 59.9% |
| 13 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 66 | 60.6% | 53.9% | 47.5% – 60.2% |
| 14 | Willie Snead | NO | WR | 104 | 57.7% | 53.6% | 47.9% – 59.3% |
| 15 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 81 | 58.0% | 53.3% | 47.2% – 59.3% |
| 16 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 76 | 57.9% | 53.1% | 46.9% – 59.2% |
| 17 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 69 | 58.0% | 52.9% | 46.7% – 59.2% |
| 18 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 66 | 57.6% | 52.7% | 46.4% – 59.0% |
| 19 | Bryan Walters◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 34 | 61.8% | 52.6% | 45.5% – 59.6% |
| 20 | Brandon Coleman◦ provisional | NO | WR | 38 | 60.5% | 52.5% | 45.6% – 59.4% |
| 21 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 40 | 60.0% | 52.5% | 45.6% – 59.3% |
| 22 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | WR | 145 | 54.5% | 52.4% | 47.2% – 57.6% |
| 23 | Malcolm Mitchell◦ provisional | NE | WR | 48 | 58.3% | 52.3% | 45.6% – 59.0% |
| 24 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 50 | 58.0% | 52.3% | 45.6% – 58.9% |
| 25 | Danny Amendola◦ provisional | NE | WR | 29 | 62.1% | 52.3% | 45.1% – 59.4% |
| 26 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 100 | 55.0% | 52.2% | 46.5% – 58.0% |
| 27 | Cameron Meredith◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 97 | 54.6% | 52.0% | 46.2% – 57.8% |
| 28 | Mike Wallace | BAL | WR | 117 | 53.8% | 51.8% | 46.3% – 57.4% |
| 29 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | WR | 133 | 53.4% | 51.7% | 46.4% – 57.0% |
| 30 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 157 | 52.9% | 51.5% | 46.4% – 56.6% |
| 31 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 31 | 58.1% | 51.5% | 44.4% – 58.6% |
| 32 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 175 | 52.6% | 51.4% | 46.5% – 56.4% |
| 33 | Rishard Matthews | TEN | WR | 109 | 53.2% | 51.4% | 45.8% – 57.1% |
| 34 | Kendall Wright◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 43 | 55.8% | 51.4% | 44.6% – 58.2% |
| 35 | Brandin Cooks | NO | WR | 117 | 53.0% | 51.4% | 45.8% – 56.9% |
| 36 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 84 | 53.6% | 51.3% | 45.3% – 57.4% |
| 37 | Alshon Jeffery◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 94 | 53.2% | 51.3% | 45.4% – 57.1% |
| 38 | Steve Smith | BAL | WR | 104 | 52.9% | 51.2% | 45.5% – 56.9% |
| 39 | Harry Douglas◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 51.2% | 43.9% – 58.6% |
| 40 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 32 | 56.3% | 51.1% | 44.0% – 58.2% |
| 41 | Deonte Thompson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 36 | 55.6% | 51.1% | 44.1% – 58.1% |
| 42 | Julian Edelman | NE | WR | 160 | 51.9% | 51.0% | 45.9% – 56.0% |
| 43 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 137 | 51.8% | 50.8% | 45.5% – 56.1% |
| 44 | Eddie Royal◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 43 | 53.5% | 50.7% | 43.9% – 57.5% |
| 45 | Marqise Lee | JAX | WR | 105 | 51.4% | 50.5% | 44.8% – 56.2% |
| 46 | Brandon LaFell | CIN | WR | 107 | 51.4% | 50.5% | 44.8% – 56.1% |
| 47 | Kenny Britt | LA | WR | 111 | 51.3% | 50.5% | 44.9% – 56.1% |
| 48 | Maurice Harris◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 50.4% | 42.8% – 58.1% |
| 49 | Marquess Wilson◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 16 | 56.3% | 50.4% | 42.9% – 58.0% |
| 50 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 22 | 54.5% | 50.4% | 43.0% – 57.8% |
| 51 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 34 | 52.9% | 50.4% | 43.4% – 57.4% |
| 52 | Paul Richardson◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 36 | 52.8% | 50.4% | 43.4% – 57.3% |
| 53 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 52 | 51.9% | 50.3% | 43.7% – 56.9% |
| 54 | Andre Roberts◦ provisional | DET | WR | 25 | 52.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% – 57.3% |
| 55 | Rod Streater◦ provisional | SF | WR | 27 | 51.8% | 50.0% | 42.8% – 57.2% |
| 56 | John Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 73 | 50.7% | 50.0% | 43.8% – 56.2% |
| 57 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 87 | 50.6% | 50.0% | 44.0% – 56.0% |
| 58 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 99 | 50.5% | 50.0% | 44.2% – 55.8% |
| 59 | Michael Crabtree | LV | WR | 147 | 50.3% | 50.0% | 44.8% – 55.2% |
| 60 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | WR | 118 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 44.3% – 55.3% |
| 61 | Adam Humphries◦ provisional | TB | WR | 84 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 43.7% – 55.8% |
| 62 | Chris Hogan◦ provisional | NE | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 43.2% – 56.2% |
| 63 | Cobi Hamilton◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 28 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 42.4% – 56.8% |
| 64 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 42.0% – 57.2% |
| 65 | Paul Turner◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 42.0% – 57.2% |
| 66 | Keith Mumphery◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 41.9% – 57.2% |
| 67 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 103 | 49.5% | 49.5% | 43.8% – 55.3% |
| 68 | Cody Core◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 27 | 48.1% | 49.2% | 42.0% – 56.5% |
| 69 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | LV | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 49.2% | 42.0% – 56.5% |
| 70 | Jordan Taylor◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 25 | 48.0% | 49.2% | 42.0% – 56.5% |
| 71 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 151 | 49.0% | 49.2% | 44.1% – 54.4% |
| 72 | Jalin Marshall◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 49.2% | 41.9% – 56.5% |
| 73 | Chris Harper◦ provisional | SF | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 49.2% | 41.8% – 56.6% |
| 74 | James Wright◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 49.2% | 41.8% – 56.6% |
| 75 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 15 | 46.7% | 49.2% | 41.6% – 56.7% |
| 76 | DeMarcus Ayers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 49.1% | 41.5% – 56.8% |
| 77 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | WR | 119 | 48.7% | 49.1% | 43.6% – 54.6% |
| 78 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | GB | WR | 56 | 48.2% | 49.1% | 42.5% – 55.6% |
| 79 | Andrew Hawkins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 54 | 48.1% | 49.0% | 42.5% – 55.6% |
| 80 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 105 | 48.6% | 49.0% | 43.4% – 54.8% |
| 81 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 97 | 48.4% | 49.0% | 43.2% – 54.8% |
| 82 | Golden Tate | DET | WR | 136 | 48.5% | 49.0% | 43.6% – 54.3% |
| 83 | Travis Benjamin◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 75 | 48.0% | 48.9% | 42.7% – 55.0% |
| 84 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 157 | 48.4% | 48.9% | 43.8% – 53.9% |
| 85 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 100 | 48.0% | 48.8% | 43.0% – 54.5% |
| 86 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 12 | 41.7% | 48.7% | 41.0% – 56.4% |
| 87 | Charles D. Johnson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 37 | 46.0% | 48.6% | 41.6% – 55.5% |
| 88 | Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | WR | 169 | 47.9% | 48.5% | 43.5% – 53.5% |
| 89 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | IND | WR | 56 | 46.4% | 48.4% | 41.9% – 55.0% |
| 90 | Jaron Brown◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 23 | 43.5% | 48.4% | 41.1% – 55.8% |
| 91 | Eric Decker◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 21 | 42.9% | 48.4% | 41.0% – 55.8% |
| 92 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | KC | WR | 83 | 47.0% | 48.4% | 42.4% – 54.4% |
| 93 | Kamar Aiken◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 50 | 46.0% | 48.4% | 41.7% – 55.0% |
| 94 | Jeff Janis◦ provisional | GB | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 48.4% | 40.9% – 55.8% |
| 95 | Ryan Grant◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 48.4% | 40.9% – 55.8% |
| 96 | Dez Bryant◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 98 | 46.9% | 48.3% | 42.5% – 54.1% |
| 97 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 123 | 47.1% | 48.2% | 42.8% – 53.7% |
| 98 | Quinton Patton◦ provisional | SF | WR | 63 | 46.0% | 48.2% | 41.8% – 54.6% |
| 99 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | WR | 142 | 47.2% | 48.2% | 42.9% – 53.4% |
| 100 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | WR | 105 | 46.7% | 48.1% | 42.4% – 53.8% |
| 101 | Justin Hunter◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 24 | 41.7% | 48.0% | 40.8% – 55.3% |
| 102 | Aaron Burbridge◦ provisional | SF | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 47.9% | 40.4% – 55.5% |
| 103 | Brittan Golden◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 47.9% | 40.3% – 55.5% |
| 104 | Tajae Sharpe◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 83 | 45.8% | 47.9% | 41.8% – 53.9% |
| 105 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | NE | WR | 77 | 45.5% | 47.8% | 41.7% – 53.9% |
| 106 | Walt Powell◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 25 | 40.0% | 47.6% | 40.4% – 54.9% |
| 107 | Josh Huff◦ provisional | TB | WR | 23 | 39.1% | 47.6% | 40.3% – 54.9% |
| 108 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | IND | WR | 59 | 44.1% | 47.5% | 41.1% – 54.0% |
| 109 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 38 | 42.1% | 47.5% | 40.6% – 54.4% |
| 110 | Jeremy Maclin◦ provisional | KC | WR | 76 | 44.7% | 47.5% | 41.4% – 53.6% |
| 111 | Amari Cooper | LV | WR | 135 | 45.9% | 47.5% | 42.2% – 52.8% |
| 112 | Ted Ginn◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 95 | 45.3% | 47.5% | 41.6% – 53.3% |
| 113 | Brice Butler◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 32 | 40.6% | 47.4% | 40.4% – 54.5% |
| 114 | Jaelen Strong◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 24 | 37.5% | 47.2% | 40.0% – 54.5% |
| 115 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | LA | WR | 20 | 35.0% | 47.1% | 39.8% – 54.6% |
| 116 | Bryce Treggs◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 12 | 25.0% | 46.9% | 39.3% – 54.6% |
| 117 | Cecil Shorts◦ provisional | TB | WR | 27 | 37.0% | 46.9% | 39.7% – 54.1% |
| 118 | Victor Cruz◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 72 | 43.1% | 46.9% | 40.7% – 53.1% |
| 119 | Andre Johnson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 23 | 34.8% | 46.8% | 39.5% – 54.1% |
| 120 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 68 | 42.6% | 46.8% | 40.5% – 53.1% |
| 121 | Ricardo Louis◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 36 | 38.9% | 46.8% | 39.8% – 53.7% |
| 122 | Kenny Stills◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 81 | 43.2% | 46.7% | 40.7% – 52.8% |
| 123 | Vincent Jackson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 34 | 38.2% | 46.7% | 39.7% – 53.7% |
| 124 | Darrius Heyward-Bey◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 46.7% | 39.3% – 54.2% |
| 125 | Roger Lewis◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 31.6% | 46.7% | 39.3% – 54.2% |
| 126 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 15 | 26.7% | 46.6% | 39.1% – 54.2% |
| 127 | Braxton Miller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 28 | 35.7% | 46.6% | 39.4% – 53.8% |
| 128 | Bennie Fowler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 24 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 39.2% – 53.8% |
| 129 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 78 | 42.3% | 46.4% | 40.3% – 52.5% |
| 130 | Jordan Norwood◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 35 | 37.1% | 46.4% | 39.4% – 53.4% |
| 131 | Charone Peake◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 35 | 37.1% | 46.4% | 39.4% – 53.4% |
| 132 | Jeremy Kerley | SF | WR | 115 | 43.5% | 46.3% | 40.8% – 51.9% |
| 133 | Dorial Green-Beckham◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 74 | 41.9% | 46.3% | 40.2% – 52.5% |
| 134 | Devin Funchess◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 59 | 40.7% | 46.3% | 39.9% – 52.8% |
| 135 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 16 | 25.0% | 46.2% | 38.7% – 53.8% |
| 136 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 92 | 42.4% | 46.1% | 40.3% – 52.0% |
| 137 | J.J. Nelson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 75 | 41.3% | 46.1% | 39.9% – 52.2% |
| 138 | Kevin White◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 36 | 36.1% | 46.0% | 39.1% – 53.0% |
| 139 | Jermaine Kearse◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 89 | 41.6% | 45.8% | 39.9% – 51.8% |
| 140 | Allen Robinson | JAX | WR | 152 | 42.8% | 45.5% | 40.4% – 50.6% |
| 141 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | WR | 128 | 42.2% | 45.4% | 40.1% – 50.8% |
| 142 | Corey Brown◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 54 | 37.0% | 45.2% | 38.7% – 51.8% |
| 143 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 70 | 38.6% | 45.1% | 38.9% – 51.3% |
| 144 | Seth Roberts◦ provisional | LV | WR | 79 | 39.2% | 45.0% | 39.0% – 51.1% |
| 145 | Albert Wilson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 51 | 35.3% | 44.8% | 38.2% – 51.4% |
| 146 | Allen Hurns◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 76 | 38.2% | 44.7% | 38.6% – 50.8% |
| 147 | Brian Quick◦ provisional | LA | WR | 77 | 37.7% | 44.4% | 38.4% – 50.5% |
| 148 | Corey Coleman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 73 | 37.0% | 44.3% | 38.2% – 50.5% |
| 149 | Torrey Smith◦ provisional | SF | WR | 49 | 32.6% | 44.1% | 37.5% – 50.7% |
| 150 | Sammie Coates◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 49 | 32.6% | 44.1% | 37.5% – 50.7% |
| 151 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 66 | 34.8% | 43.8% | 37.5% – 50.1% |
| 152 | Tavon Austin | LA | WR | 106 | 31.1% | 40.2% | 34.6% – 45.8% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).