NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2020
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 117
- targets to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2020 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 146 | 64.4% | 60.0% | 55.0% – 64.9% |
| 2 | Darren Waller | LV | TE | 146 | 61.6% | 58.5% | 53.4% – 63.4% |
| 3 | Robert Tonyan◦ provisional | GB | TE | 59 | 66.1% | 58.4% | 52.2% – 64.4% |
| 4 | Durham Smythe◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 29 | 72.4% | 58.1% | 51.3% – 64.7% |
| 5 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 64 | 64.1% | 57.9% | 51.8% – 63.8% |
| 6 | Darren Fells◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 28 | 71.4% | 57.8% | 51.0% – 64.4% |
| 7 | Jordan Akins◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 49 | 65.3% | 57.7% | 51.3% – 63.9% |
| 8 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 34 | 67.7% | 57.5% | 50.8% – 64.0% |
| 9 | Dan Arnold◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 45 | 64.4% | 57.3% | 50.8% – 63.6% |
| 10 | Pharaoh Brown◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 16 | 75.0% | 57.0% | 49.9% – 63.9% |
| 11 | Adam Trautman◦ provisional | NO | TE | 16 | 75.0% | 57.0% | 49.9% – 63.9% |
| 12 | Richard Rodgers◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 32 | 65.6% | 56.9% | 50.2% – 63.5% |
| 13 | Kyle Rudolph◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 38 | 63.2% | 56.6% | 50.0% – 63.1% |
| 14 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 61 | 60.7% | 56.6% | 50.5% – 62.7% |
| 15 | Ross Dwelley◦ provisional | SF | TE | 24 | 66.7% | 56.6% | 49.7% – 63.4% |
| 16 | Jack Doyle◦ provisional | IND | TE | 33 | 63.6% | 56.5% | 49.8% – 63.1% |
| 17 | James O'Shaughnessy◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 39 | 61.5% | 56.3% | 49.7% – 62.7% |
| 18 | Mo Alie-Cox◦ provisional | IND | TE | 39 | 61.5% | 56.3% | 49.7% – 62.7% |
| 19 | Tyler Kroft◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 16 | 68.8% | 56.2% | 49.1% – 63.2% |
| 20 | Albert Okwuegbunam◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 15 | 66.7% | 55.9% | 48.7% – 62.9% |
| 21 | Tyler Conklin◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 26 | 61.5% | 55.8% | 48.9% – 62.5% |
| 22 | Anthony Firkser◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 53 | 58.5% | 55.7% | 49.5% – 62.0% |
| 23 | Geoff Swaim◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 12 | 66.7% | 55.6% | 48.4% – 62.7% |
| 24 | Dalton Schultz◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 89 | 56.2% | 55.2% | 49.5% – 60.9% |
| 25 | Irv Smith◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 44 | 56.8% | 55.1% | 48.7% – 61.5% |
| 26 | Blake Bell◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 15 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 48.0% – 62.2% |
| 27 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 93 | 55.9% | 55.1% | 49.5% – 60.7% |
| 28 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 66 | 56.1% | 55.1% | 49.0% – 61.1% |
| 29 | Nick Boyle◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 17 | 58.8% | 55.0% | 47.9% – 62.1% |
| 30 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 70 | 55.7% | 54.9% | 48.9% – 60.9% |
| 31 | Kaden Smith◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 21 | 57.1% | 54.9% | 47.9% – 61.8% |
| 32 | Darrell Daniels◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 12 | 58.3% | 54.9% | 47.6% – 62.0% |
| 33 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 65 | 55.4% | 54.8% | 48.7% – 60.8% |
| 34 | Jared Cook◦ provisional | NO | TE | 60 | 55.0% | 54.7% | 48.5% – 60.8% |
| 35 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 29 | 55.2% | 54.6% | 47.8% – 61.4% |
| 36 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 29 | 55.2% | 54.6% | 47.8% – 61.4% |
| 37 | Drew Sample◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 53 | 54.7% | 54.6% | 48.3% – 60.8% |
| 38 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 88 | 54.5% | 54.5% | 48.8% – 60.2% |
| 39 | Chris Herndon◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 46 | 54.4% | 54.4% | 48.0% – 60.8% |
| 40 | Greg Olsen◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 37 | 54.0% | 54.4% | 47.8% – 60.9% |
| 41 | Troy Fumagalli◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 15 | 53.3% | 54.4% | 47.2% – 61.4% |
| 42 | Jason Witten◦ provisional | LV | TE | 17 | 52.9% | 54.3% | 47.2% – 61.3% |
| 43 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | TB | TE | 19 | 52.6% | 54.2% | 47.2% – 61.2% |
| 44 | Ryan Izzo◦ provisional | NE | TE | 20 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 46.8% – 60.8% |
| 45 | Donald Parham◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 20 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 46.8% – 60.8% |
| 46 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | DET | TE | 102 | 52.9% | 53.8% | 48.2% – 59.3% |
| 47 | Jacob Hollister◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 41 | 51.2% | 53.6% | 47.1% – 60.1% |
| 48 | Jace Sternberger◦ provisional | GB | TE | 15 | 46.7% | 53.6% | 46.5% – 60.7% |
| 49 | Marcedes Lewis◦ provisional | GB | TE | 17 | 47.1% | 53.5% | 46.5% – 60.6% |
| 50 | Cole Kmet◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 45 | 51.1% | 53.5% | 47.1% – 60.0% |
| 51 | Trey Burton◦ provisional | IND | TE | 47 | 51.1% | 53.5% | 47.1% – 59.9% |
| 52 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 85 | 51.8% | 53.3% | 47.6% – 59.1% |
| 53 | Ryan Griffin◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 12 | 41.7% | 53.3% | 46.1% – 60.5% |
| 54 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 22 | 45.5% | 53.1% | 46.1% – 60.0% |
| 55 | Tyler Eifert◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 60 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 46.8% – 59.1% |
| 56 | Harrison Bryant◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 38 | 47.4% | 52.8% | 46.2% – 59.3% |
| 57 | Jimmy Graham◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 76 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 46.8% – 58.6% |
| 58 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 94 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 46.8% – 58.1% |
| 59 | Demetrius Harris◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 14 | 35.7% | 52.5% | 45.3% – 59.6% |
| 60 | Rob Gronkowski◦ provisional | TB | TE | 77 | 49.4% | 52.4% | 46.6% – 58.3% |
| 61 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LA | TE | 62 | 48.4% | 52.4% | 46.2% – 58.5% |
| 62 | Adam Shaheen◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 22 | 40.9% | 52.3% | 45.4% – 59.3% |
| 63 | Hayden Hurst◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 89 | 49.4% | 52.3% | 46.6% – 58.0% |
| 64 | N'Keal Harry◦ provisional | NE | TE | 57 | 47.4% | 52.2% | 45.9% – 58.4% |
| 65 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 13 | 30.8% | 52.1% | 44.9% – 59.3% |
| 66 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 44 | 45.5% | 52.0% | 45.6% – 58.5% |
| 67 | Ian Thomas◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 31 | 41.9% | 51.9% | 45.1% – 58.6% |
| 68 | Jesse James◦ provisional | DET | TE | 22 | 36.4% | 51.6% | 44.7% – 58.6% |
| 69 | Logan Thomas◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 111 | 47.8% | 51.2% | 45.8% – 56.6% |
| 70 | Vance McDonald◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 20 | 30.0% | 50.9% | 43.9% – 57.9% |
| 71 | Jordan Reed◦ provisional | SF | TE | 46 | 41.3% | 50.8% | 44.3% – 57.2% |
| 72 | Eric Ebron◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 92 | 45.6% | 50.6% | 44.9% – 56.3% |
| 73 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 73 | 35.6% | 47.2% | 41.3% – 53.2% |
| 74 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 109 | 39.5% | 47.2% | 41.8% – 52.7% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).