NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2019
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 128
- targets to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Waller◦ provisional | LV | TE | 117 | 63.2% | 57.7% | 52.5% – 62.9% |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 136 | 61.0% | 57.0% | 52.0% – 62.0% |
| 3 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 77 | 63.6% | 56.8% | 51.1% – 62.5% |
| 4 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 107 | 60.8% | 56.4% | 51.0% – 61.7% |
| 5 | Jared Cook◦ provisional | NO | TE | 65 | 61.5% | 55.7% | 49.8% – 61.5% |
| 6 | Kyle Rudolph◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 49 | 63.3% | 55.6% | 49.5% – 61.7% |
| 7 | Jason Witten◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 85 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% – 61.2% |
| 8 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 89 | 59.6% | 55.5% | 50.0% – 61.0% |
| 9 | Foster Moreau◦ provisional | LV | TE | 25 | 68.0% | 55.2% | 48.6% – 61.8% |
| 10 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 99 | 57.6% | 54.8% | 49.4% – 60.2% |
| 11 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 27 | 63.0% | 54.5% | 47.9% – 61.0% |
| 12 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | TB | TE | 53 | 58.5% | 54.4% | 48.3% – 60.5% |
| 13 | James O'Shaughnessy◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 20 | 65.0% | 54.4% | 47.6% – 61.1% |
| 14 | Nick Boyle◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 44 | 59.1% | 54.4% | 48.1% – 60.6% |
| 15 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 44 | 59.1% | 54.4% | 48.1% – 60.6% |
| 16 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 22 | 63.6% | 54.3% | 47.6% – 61.0% |
| 17 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 22 | 63.6% | 54.3% | 47.6% – 61.0% |
| 18 | Darren Fells◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 48 | 58.3% | 54.3% | 48.1% – 60.4% |
| 19 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 87 | 56.3% | 54.2% | 48.6% – 59.7% |
| 20 | Hayden Hurst◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 39 | 59.0% | 54.2% | 47.8% – 60.5% |
| 21 | Blake Jarwin◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 41 | 58.5% | 54.1% | 47.8% – 60.4% |
| 22 | Adam Shaheen◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 14 | 64.3% | 53.9% | 47.0% – 60.7% |
| 23 | Jeff Heuerman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 20 | 60.0% | 53.7% | 47.0% – 60.4% |
| 24 | Benjamin Watson◦ provisional | NE | TE | 24 | 58.3% | 53.6% | 46.9% – 60.2% |
| 25 | Virgil Green◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 13 | 61.5% | 53.5% | 46.6% – 60.4% |
| 26 | Jeremy Sprinkle◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 41 | 56.1% | 53.5% | 47.2% – 59.8% |
| 27 | Marcedes Lewis◦ provisional | GB | TE | 19 | 57.9% | 53.4% | 46.6% – 60.1% |
| 28 | Maxx Williams◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 19 | 57.9% | 53.4% | 46.6% – 60.1% |
| 29 | Zach Ertz | PHI | TE | 136 | 53.7% | 53.2% | 48.2% – 58.2% |
| 30 | Ross Dwelley◦ provisional | SF | TE | 22 | 54.5% | 53.0% | 46.3% – 59.7% |
| 31 | C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 41 | 53.7% | 52.9% | 46.6% – 59.2% |
| 32 | Ryan Griffin◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 43 | 53.5% | 52.9% | 46.6% – 59.2% |
| 33 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 55 | 52.7% | 52.7% | 46.7% – 58.8% |
| 34 | Matt LaCosse◦ provisional | NE | TE | 19 | 52.6% | 52.7% | 45.9% – 59.4% |
| 35 | Jacob Hollister◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 59 | 52.5% | 52.7% | 46.7% – 58.6% |
| 36 | Delanie Walker◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 31 | 51.6% | 52.5% | 46.0% – 59.0% |
| 37 | Nick O'Leary◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 18 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 45.6% – 59.1% |
| 38 | Seth DeValve◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 18 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 45.6% – 59.1% |
| 39 | Greg Olsen◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 83 | 51.8% | 52.4% | 46.7% – 58.0% |
| 40 | Tyler Eifert◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 64 | 51.6% | 52.3% | 46.4% – 58.2% |
| 41 | Charles Clay◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 24 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 45.6% – 58.9% |
| 42 | Anthony Firkser◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 24 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 45.6% – 58.9% |
| 43 | Josh Perkins◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 13 | 46.2% | 52.1% | 45.2% – 59.0% |
| 44 | Tommy Sweeney◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 13 | 46.2% | 52.1% | 45.2% – 59.0% |
| 45 | Robert Tonyan◦ provisional | GB | TE | 15 | 46.7% | 52.1% | 45.2% – 58.9% |
| 46 | Derek Carrier◦ provisional | LV | TE | 19 | 47.4% | 52.0% | 45.3% – 58.8% |
| 47 | Jack Doyle◦ provisional | IND | TE | 73 | 50.7% | 52.0% | 46.2% – 57.8% |
| 48 | Ricky Seals-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 23 | 47.8% | 52.0% | 45.3% – 58.6% |
| 49 | Eric Ebron◦ provisional | IND | TE | 52 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 45.8% – 58.0% |
| 50 | Josh Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 35 | 48.6% | 51.8% | 45.4% – 58.2% |
| 51 | Dan Arnold◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 14 | 42.9% | 51.7% | 44.9% – 58.6% |
| 52 | Durham Smythe◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 14 | 42.9% | 51.7% | 44.9% – 58.6% |
| 53 | Demetrius Harris◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 28 | 46.4% | 51.6% | 45.0% – 58.1% |
| 54 | Logan Thomas◦ provisional | DET | TE | 28 | 46.4% | 51.6% | 45.0% – 58.1% |
| 55 | Ian Thomas◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 30 | 46.7% | 51.6% | 45.1% – 58.1% |
| 56 | Hale Hentges◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 15 | 40.0% | 51.4% | 44.5% – 58.2% |
| 57 | Jesse James◦ provisional | DET | TE | 27 | 44.4% | 51.3% | 44.7% – 57.9% |
| 58 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 98 | 49.0% | 51.1% | 45.6% – 56.5% |
| 59 | Luke Stocker◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 14 | 35.7% | 51.0% | 44.2% – 57.9% |
| 60 | Tyler Kroft◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 14 | 35.7% | 51.0% | 44.2% – 57.9% |
| 61 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 50 | 46.0% | 50.8% | 44.7% – 57.0% |
| 62 | Kaden Smith◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 43 | 44.2% | 50.6% | 44.3% – 56.9% |
| 63 | Irv Smith◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 47 | 44.7% | 50.6% | 44.4% – 56.8% |
| 64 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | DET | TE | 59 | 45.8% | 50.5% | 44.5% – 56.5% |
| 65 | Jordan Matthews◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 12 | 25.0% | 50.3% | 43.4% – 57.3% |
| 66 | N'Keal Harry◦ provisional | NE | TE | 24 | 37.5% | 50.3% | 43.7% – 57.0% |
| 67 | Jimmy Graham◦ provisional | GB | TE | 60 | 45.0% | 50.3% | 44.3% – 56.2% |
| 68 | Vernon Davis◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 19 | 31.6% | 50.0% | 43.2% – 56.8% |
| 69 | Blake Bell◦ provisional | KC | TE | 15 | 26.7% | 50.0% | 43.1% – 56.9% |
| 70 | Geoff Swaim◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 17 | 29.4% | 50.0% | 43.2% – 56.8% |
| 71 | Jordan Akins◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 55 | 43.6% | 50.0% | 43.9% – 56.1% |
| 72 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 66 | 42.4% | 49.2% | 43.3% – 55.1% |
| 73 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LA | TE | 60 | 41.7% | 49.2% | 43.2% – 55.2% |
| 74 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 89 | 43.8% | 49.1% | 43.5% – 54.6% |
| 75 | Trey Burton◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 24 | 29.2% | 49.0% | 42.4% – 55.7% |
| 76 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 68 | 41.2% | 48.7% | 42.9% – 54.6% |
| 77 | Vance McDonald◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 55 | 38.2% | 48.4% | 42.3% – 54.4% |
| 78 | Rhett Ellison◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 28 | 25.0% | 47.8% | 41.2% – 54.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).