NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2019
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 429
- targets to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 107 | +0.54 | +0.30 | +0.19 – +0.40 |
| 2 | Travis Kelce◦ provisional | KC | TE | 136 | +0.46 | +0.29 | +0.19 – +0.39 |
| 3 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 98 | +0.47 | +0.28 | +0.17 – +0.39 |
| 4 | Jared Cook◦ provisional | NO | TE | 65 | +0.56 | +0.28 | +0.17 – +0.39 |
| 5 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 22 | +0.96 | +0.27 | +0.16 – +0.39 |
| 6 | Darren Waller◦ provisional | LV | TE | 117 | +0.40 | +0.27 | +0.17 – +0.38 |
| 7 | Hayden Hurst◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 39 | +0.62 | +0.27 | +0.16 – +0.38 |
| 8 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 27 | +0.69 | +0.26 | +0.15 – +0.38 |
| 9 | Kyle Rudolph◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 49 | +0.48 | +0.26 | +0.15 – +0.37 |
| 10 | Darren Fells◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 48 | +0.46 | +0.26 | +0.15 – +0.37 |
| 11 | Tyler Eifert◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 64 | +0.38 | +0.26 | +0.14 – +0.37 |
| 12 | Ryan Griffin◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 43 | +0.41 | +0.25 | +0.14 – +0.37 |
| 13 | Foster Moreau◦ provisional | LV | TE | 25 | +0.52 | +0.25 | +0.14 – +0.37 |
| 14 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 89 | +0.32 | +0.25 | +0.14 – +0.36 |
| 15 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 77 | +0.32 | +0.25 | +0.14 – +0.36 |
| 16 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 44 | +0.37 | +0.25 | +0.14 – +0.36 |
| 17 | Charles Clay◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 24 | +0.44 | +0.25 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 18 | Dan Arnold◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 14 | +0.55 | +0.25 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 19 | Benjamin Watson◦ provisional | NE | TE | 24 | +0.43 | +0.25 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 20 | Ricky Seals-Jones◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 23 | +0.42 | +0.25 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 21 | Blake Jarwin◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 41 | +0.34 | +0.25 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 22 | Demetrius Harris◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 28 | +0.36 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 23 | James O'Shaughnessy◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 20 | +0.37 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 24 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 136 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.14 – +0.35 |
| 25 | Tommy Sweeney◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 13 | +0.40 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.36 |
| 26 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 99 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.35 |
| 27 | Nick Boyle◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 44 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.35 |
| 28 | Marcedes Lewis◦ provisional | GB | TE | 19 | +0.31 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.36 |
| 29 | Virgil Green◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 13 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.36 |
| 30 | Irv Smith◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 47 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.35 |
| 31 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 22 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 32 | Jordan Akins◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 55 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.35 |
| 33 | Derek Carrier◦ provisional | LV | TE | 19 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 34 | Josh Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 35 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 35 | Kaden Smith◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 43 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 36 | Maxx Williams◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 19 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 37 | Seth DeValve◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 18 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 38 | Jason Witten◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 85 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.13 – +0.34 |
| 39 | Jeff Heuerman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 20 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 40 | Jimmy Graham◦ provisional | GB | TE | 60 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 41 | Ross Dwelley◦ provisional | SF | TE | 22 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 42 | Adam Shaheen◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 14 | +0.12 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 43 | Josh Perkins◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 13 | +0.10 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 44 | Robert Tonyan◦ provisional | GB | TE | 15 | +0.11 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 45 | Nick O'Leary◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 18 | +0.10 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.35 |
| 46 | Tyler Kroft◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 14 | +0.03 | +0.23 | +0.11 – +0.35 |
| 47 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | TB | TE | 53 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.34 |
| 48 | Delanie Walker◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 31 | +0.14 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.34 |
| 49 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 50 | +0.16 | +0.23 | +0.12 – +0.34 |
| 50 | Matt LaCosse◦ provisional | NE | TE | 19 | +0.03 | +0.23 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 51 | Hale Hentges◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 15 | -0.04 | +0.23 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 52 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | DET | TE | 59 | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 53 | N'Keal Harry◦ provisional | NE | TE | 24 | +0.03 | +0.23 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 54 | Jesse James◦ provisional | DET | TE | 27 | +0.02 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 55 | Blake Bell◦ provisional | KC | TE | 15 | -0.18 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 56 | Anthony Firkser◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 24 | -0.05 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.34 |
| 57 | C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 41 | +0.06 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.33 |
| 58 | Durham Smythe◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 14 | -0.28 | +0.22 | +0.10 – +0.34 |
| 59 | Logan Thomas◦ provisional | DET | TE | 28 | -0.04 | +0.22 | +0.10 – +0.33 |
| 60 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LA | TE | 60 | +0.10 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.33 |
| 61 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 55 | +0.07 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.33 |
| 62 | Greg Olsen◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 83 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.11 – +0.32 |
| 63 | Geoff Swaim◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 17 | -0.35 | +0.21 | +0.10 – +0.33 |
| 64 | Jeremy Sprinkle◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 41 | -0.02 | +0.21 | +0.10 – +0.33 |
| 65 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 87 | +0.10 | +0.21 | +0.11 – +0.32 |
| 66 | Ian Thomas◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 30 | -0.13 | +0.21 | +0.10 – +0.33 |
| 67 | Jordan Matthews◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 12 | -0.69 | +0.21 | +0.09 – +0.33 |
| 68 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 68 | +0.05 | +0.21 | +0.10 – +0.32 |
| 69 | Jack Doyle◦ provisional | IND | TE | 73 | +0.03 | +0.21 | +0.10 – +0.32 |
| 70 | Vernon Davis◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 19 | -0.47 | +0.21 | +0.09 – +0.32 |
| 71 | Rhett Ellison◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 28 | -0.26 | +0.21 | +0.09 – +0.32 |
| 72 | Trey Burton◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 24 | -0.36 | +0.21 | +0.09 – +0.32 |
| 73 | Eric Ebron◦ provisional | IND | TE | 52 | -0.06 | +0.21 | +0.09 – +0.32 |
| 74 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 66 | -0.01 | +0.20 | +0.09 – +0.31 |
| 75 | Luke Stocker◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 14 | -0.87 | +0.20 | +0.09 – +0.32 |
| 76 | Jacob Hollister◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 59 | -0.06 | +0.20 | +0.09 – +0.31 |
| 77 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 89 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.09 – +0.31 |
| 78 | Vance McDonald◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 55 | -0.21 | +0.19 | +0.07 – +0.30 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).