NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Target success rate · 2017
Share of targets with positive EPA, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 21.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.7% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.19
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 150
- targets to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Target success rate · 2017 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 62 | 69.3% | 55.2% | 49.6% – 60.8% |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski◦ provisional | NE | TE | 106 | 61.3% | 54.3% | 49.2% – 59.4% |
| 3 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 111 | 57.7% | 52.9% | 47.8% – 58.0% |
| 4 | Rhett Ellison◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 32 | 68.8% | 52.8% | 46.7% – 58.9% |
| 5 | Trey Burton◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 32 | 62.5% | 51.7% | 45.6% – 57.8% |
| 6 | Jason Witten◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 87 | 55.2% | 51.5% | 46.2% – 56.8% |
| 7 | Jack Doyle◦ provisional | IND | TE | 109 | 54.1% | 51.4% | 46.3% – 56.5% |
| 8 | Benjamin Watson◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 80 | 55.0% | 51.3% | 45.9% – 56.7% |
| 9 | Levine Toilolo◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 14 | 71.4% | 51.3% | 44.9% – 57.7% |
| 10 | Adam Shaheen◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 14 | 71.4% | 51.3% | 44.9% – 57.7% |
| 11 | Coby Fleener◦ provisional | NO | TE | 30 | 60.0% | 51.1% | 45.0% – 57.3% |
| 12 | Travis Kelce◦ provisional | KC | TE | 122 | 53.3% | 51.1% | 46.1% – 56.1% |
| 13 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 77 | 54.5% | 51.1% | 45.7% – 56.6% |
| 14 | Jared Cook◦ provisional | LV | TE | 86 | 53.5% | 50.9% | 45.5% – 56.2% |
| 15 | Jordan Reed◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 35 | 57.1% | 50.8% | 44.8% – 56.9% |
| 16 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | TB | TE | 39 | 56.4% | 50.8% | 44.9% – 56.8% |
| 17 | David Morgan◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 12 | 66.7% | 50.7% | 44.2% – 57.1% |
| 18 | Nick O'Leary◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 32 | 56.3% | 50.6% | 44.5% – 56.7% |
| 19 | Tyler Kroft◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 62 | 53.2% | 50.5% | 44.9% – 56.1% |
| 20 | C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 15 | 60.0% | 50.3% | 44.0% – 56.7% |
| 21 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 15 | 60.0% | 50.3% | 44.0% – 56.7% |
| 22 | Kyle Rudolph◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 81 | 51.8% | 50.2% | 44.8% – 55.6% |
| 23 | Delanie Walker◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 111 | 51.3% | 50.2% | 45.1% – 55.3% |
| 24 | Martellus Bennett◦ provisional | NE | TE | 44 | 52.3% | 50.0% | 44.1% – 55.9% |
| 25 | Darren Fells◦ provisional | DET | TE | 26 | 53.8% | 50.0% | 43.9% – 56.2% |
| 26 | Jordan Matthews◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 36 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 44.0% – 56.1% |
| 27 | C.J. Fiedorowicz◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 22 | 54.5% | 50.0% | 43.8% – 56.3% |
| 28 | Nick Boyle◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 38 | 52.6% | 50.0% | 44.0% – 56.0% |
| 29 | Daniel Brown◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 20 | 55.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% – 56.3% |
| 30 | Jesse James◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 63 | 50.8% | 49.8% | 44.2% – 55.4% |
| 31 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 65 | 50.8% | 49.8% | 44.2% – 55.4% |
| 32 | Garrett Celek◦ provisional | SF | TE | 33 | 51.5% | 49.8% | 43.7% – 55.8% |
| 33 | Brandon Williams◦ provisional | IND | TE | 17 | 52.9% | 49.7% | 43.4% – 56.1% |
| 34 | Richard Rodgers◦ provisional | GB | TE | 19 | 52.6% | 49.7% | 43.4% – 56.1% |
| 35 | Austin Traylor◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 13 | 53.8% | 49.7% | 43.3% – 56.2% |
| 36 | Julius Thomas◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 62 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 43.9% – 55.2% |
| 37 | Jermaine Gresham◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 46 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 43.7% – 55.4% |
| 38 | Virgil Green◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 22 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 43.2% – 55.7% |
| 39 | Vance McDonald◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 24 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 43.2% – 55.7% |
| 40 | James O'Shaughnessy◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 24 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 43.2% – 55.7% |
| 41 | Anthony Fasano◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 16 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 43.1% – 55.8% |
| 42 | Ed Dickson◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 49 | 49.0% | 49.3% | 43.5% – 55.1% |
| 43 | Zach Miller◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 35 | 48.6% | 49.2% | 43.2% – 55.3% |
| 44 | Luke Willson◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 22 | 45.5% | 48.9% | 42.6% – 55.1% |
| 45 | Antonio Gates◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 53 | 47.2% | 48.8% | 43.0% – 54.6% |
| 46 | Marcedes Lewis◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 49 | 46.9% | 48.8% | 43.0% – 54.6% |
| 47 | Charles Clay◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 74 | 47.3% | 48.7% | 43.2% – 54.2% |
| 48 | Troy Niklas◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 23 | 43.5% | 48.6% | 42.4% – 54.8% |
| 49 | Clive Walford◦ provisional | LV | TE | 13 | 38.5% | 48.5% | 42.1% – 54.9% |
| 50 | Demetrius Harris◦ provisional | KC | TE | 36 | 44.4% | 48.4% | 42.4% – 54.4% |
| 51 | Jimmy Graham◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 98 | 46.9% | 48.4% | 43.2% – 53.6% |
| 52 | Brent Celek◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 24 | 41.7% | 48.3% | 42.1% – 54.5% |
| 53 | Maxx Williams◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 18 | 38.9% | 48.3% | 41.9% – 54.6% |
| 54 | Jeff Heuerman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 18 | 38.9% | 48.3% | 41.9% – 54.6% |
| 55 | Ryan Griffin◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 27 | 40.7% | 48.1% | 41.9% – 54.2% |
| 56 | Niles Paul◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 19 | 36.8% | 48.0% | 41.7% – 54.3% |
| 57 | Ross Travis◦ provisional | IND | TE | 17 | 35.3% | 47.9% | 41.6% – 54.3% |
| 58 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 63 | 44.4% | 47.9% | 42.3% – 53.5% |
| 59 | Ricky Seals-Jones◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 28 | 39.3% | 47.8% | 41.6% – 53.9% |
| 60 | Vernon Davis◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 69 | 43.5% | 47.5% | 42.0% – 53.1% |
| 61 | Dion Sims◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 29 | 37.9% | 47.5% | 41.4% – 53.7% |
| 62 | A.J. Derby◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 40 | 40.0% | 47.4% | 41.5% – 53.4% |
| 63 | Darrell Daniels◦ provisional | IND | TE | 13 | 23.1% | 47.3% | 40.9% – 53.7% |
| 64 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 30 | 36.7% | 47.3% | 41.2% – 53.4% |
| 65 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 45 | 40.0% | 47.2% | 41.4% – 53.1% |
| 66 | Seth DeValve◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 58 | 41.4% | 47.1% | 41.5% – 52.8% |
| 67 | Josh Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 22 | 31.8% | 47.1% | 40.9% – 53.4% |
| 68 | Stephen Anderson◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 52 | 40.4% | 47.1% | 41.3% – 52.8% |
| 69 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 74 | 41.9% | 46.9% | 41.4% – 52.4% |
| 70 | Greg Olsen◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 38 | 36.8% | 46.8% | 40.9% – 52.8% |
| 71 | Eric Ebron◦ provisional | DET | TE | 86 | 41.9% | 46.6% | 41.3% – 52.0% |
| 72 | Dwayne Allen◦ provisional | NE | TE | 22 | 27.3% | 46.6% | 40.3% – 52.8% |
| 73 | Lance Kendricks◦ provisional | GB | TE | 35 | 34.3% | 46.5% | 40.5% – 52.6% |
| 74 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LA | TE | 32 | 31.3% | 46.2% | 40.1% – 52.3% |
| 75 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 60 | 36.7% | 45.7% | 40.1% – 51.4% |
| 76 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 115 | 40.9% | 45.7% | 40.7% – 50.7% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).