Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Luis Severino

The Almanac's Take

Guerrero is hitting .294/.382/.766 through 58 games with a 10.4% strikeout rate that ranks among the cleanest contact profiles in the league, but he's a right-handed bat facing a right-handed Severino, so there's no platoon edge here. Severino's 4.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP reflect real command issues — 4.5 BB/9 is a problem — and nine home runs allowed in 62.2 innings is a meaningful gopher-ball rate. The H2H is 18 PA, barely a footnote: Guerrero is 6-for-15 with a .400 average and a 97.0 mph average exit velocity against him, which is at least consistent with his season-long hard contact. Lean on the season read here; the small sample just doesn't move the needle.

Career head-to-head

AVG

.400

6-for-15

PA

18

HR

1

K

6

BB

3

Pitches seen

73

Avg exit velo

97.0 mph

Career meetings in the Statcast era (2015–present). Even a clear edge over a handful of plate appearances is a small sample — read it as color, not a projection.

Pitch mix to the batter

Plate-appearance log

• 2026-03-27Single · Sinker 96.6 mph · 103.1 mph EV
• 2026-03-27Walk · Cutter 94.2 mph
• 2025-07-11Single · Sinker 96.2 mph · 98.4 mph EV
• 2025-07-11Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 98.1 mph
• 2025-07-11Walk · 4-Seam Fastball 96.2 mph
• 2022-09-26Single · Slider 82.3 mph · 111.5 mph EV
• 2022-09-26Field Out · 4-Seam Fastball 96.9 mph · 72.5 mph EV
• 2022-06-19Single · Slider 87.6 mph · 102.4 mph EV
• 2022-06-19Walk · Slider 80.7 mph
• 2022-06-19Home Run · 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph · 110.3 mph EV
• 2022-05-10Single · 4-Seam Fastball 97.1 mph · 109.6 mph EV
• 2022-05-10Field Out · Changeup 90.1 mph · 70.8 mph EV
• 2022-05-10Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 97.3 mph
• 2022-04-14Strikeout · Changeup 90.0 mph
• 2022-04-14Strikeout · Cutter 95.4 mph
• 2022-04-14Strikeout · Changeup 91.5 mph
• 2021-09-30Strikeout · Changeup 89.1 mph
• 2021-09-28Field Out · 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph · 94.7 mph EV