Nick Castellanos vs Mitch Keller

The Almanac's Take

Castellanos has been genuinely rough this season — .198/.234/.564 OPS in 111 PA, with a 26.1% strikeout rate that compounds a flat plate approach. No platoon edge here either; both throw and bat right-handed. The 37-PA head-to-head is a borderline sample, but Keller has held him to a .242 average with 10 strikeouts, and the pitch mix — 32.6% cutters, 31.9% four-seamers — plays into the same weaknesses the season line already exposes. Keller's own 5.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP suggest he's hittable in general, but there's little in this data pointing toward Castellanos as the guy to exploit it.

Career head-to-head

AVG

.242

8-for-33

PA

37

HR

2

K

10

BB

4

Pitches seen

144

Avg exit velo

92.5 mph

Career meetings in the Statcast era (2015–present). Even a clear edge over a handful of plate appearances is a small sample — read it as color, not a projection.

Pitch mix to the batter

Plate-appearance log

• 2026-04-08Walk · Sweeper 83.8 mph
• 2026-04-08Field Out · Sweeper 81.5 mph · 77.4 mph EV
• 2024-04-14Field Out · Sweeper 82.1 mph · 85.3 mph EV
• 2024-04-14Field Out · Sweeper 83.6 mph · 86.5 mph EV
• 2024-04-14Single · Sinker 93.8 mph · 107.6 mph EV
• 2023-09-26Strikeout · Cutter 88.6 mph
• 2023-09-26Field Out · Sweeper 81.4 mph · 97.1 mph EV
• 2023-07-28Strikeout · Sweeper 84.7 mph
• 2023-07-28Strikeout · Cutter 85.7 mph
• 2023-07-28Field Out · Sinker 91.6 mph · 104.8 mph EV
• 2022-07-30Field Out · Sweeper 82.4 mph · 71.0 mph EV
• 2022-07-30Force Out · Sweeper 81.8 mph · 96.6 mph EV
• 2022-07-30Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 96.8 mph
• 2021-10-03Double · Cutter 85.3 mph · 98.1 mph EV
• 2021-10-03Walk · Changeup 91.0 mph
• 2021-09-21Grounded Into Double Play · Cutter 82.6 mph · 90.3 mph EV
• 2021-09-21Field Out · Cutter 87.2 mph · 86.1 mph EV
• 2021-09-21Strikeout · Cutter 84.6 mph
• 2021-09-15Field Out · Cutter 84.4 mph · 100.6 mph EV
• 2021-09-15Single · 4-Seam Fastball 92.9 mph · 106.3 mph EV
• 2021-09-15Field Out · Cutter 83.9 mph · 103.3 mph EV
• 2021-08-07Home Run · 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph · 101.7 mph EV
• 2021-08-07Single · Cutter 86.6 mph · 101.8 mph EV
• 2021-08-07Strikeout · Cutter 88.2 mph
• 2021-05-10Walk · 4-Seam Fastball 94.2 mph
• 2021-05-10Field Out · Cutter 87.2 mph · 70.5 mph EV
• 2020-09-14Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
• 2020-09-14Strikeout Double Play · Cutter 87.8 mph
• 2019-09-24Field Out · Cutter 86.9 mph · 86.6 mph EV
• 2019-09-24Field Out · Cutter 87.6 mph · 103.2 mph EV
• 2019-09-24Strikeout · Cutter 88.9 mph
• 2019-08-18Strikeout
• 2019-08-18Single
• 2019-08-18Home Run
• 2019-06-18Field Out · Cutter 88.2 mph · 67.9 mph EV
• 2019-06-18Double · 4-Seam Fastball 97.6 mph · 100.5 mph EV
• 2019-06-18Walk · Curveball 79.0 mph