MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

July 26, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 3 starters · Updated Jul 27, 4:50 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Three starters on the board today, all high-confidence projections. Messick is the clearest arm — 5.8 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay, an elite matchup grade, and a 2.68 ERA that backs the projection's optimism. Rasmussen draws the same game from the other side: 5.3 Ks in 5.6 projected innings with a favorable matchup grade, though his 3.28 ERA and slightly shallower line put him a half-step behind. Mikolas sits at 3.9 projected innings with a 3.4 K projection against Arizona in an unfavorable matchup — the 5.42 season ERA fits that read, and there's no clean angle there.

#1Drew Rasmussen(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

Tropicana Field · Final

GS: 20
IP: 111.3
W-L: 9-5
ERA: 3.07
WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 9.10
BB/9: 1.50
K/BB: 5.89

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.1
ER: 1.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.5
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 35.0
Rest: 5d

Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Drew Rasmussen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-21	5.0	7	2	1	5	0	93	W
2026-07-04	5.0	6	5	1	2	2	77	—
2026-06-28	6.0	3	0	1	5	0	99	W
2026-06-22	6.0	4	2	2	5	0	90	L
2026-06-16	7.0	6	1	0	7	1	102	L

#2Parker Messick(LHP)

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · Final

GS: 21
IP: 125.3
W-L: 8-6
ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.80
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 3.39

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 5.8
ER: 1.3
H: 4.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.2
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.2
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 34.4
Rest: 5d

Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Parker Messick.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-21	5.7	4	1	0	6	1	88	—
2026-07-10	6.0	1	1	4	1	1	91	W
2026-07-04	5.0	5	1	3	3	0	100	—
2026-06-29	6.7	8	4	0	5	0	83	L
2026-06-23	7.7	3	2	1	10	1	95	L

#3Miles Mikolas(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Nationals Park · Final

GS: 22
IP: 102.0
W-L: 3-7
ERA: 5.47
WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 4.60
BB/9: 1.90
K/BB: 2.48

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.4
ER: 2.5
H: 4.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.5
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 13.5
Rest: 5d

Nationals Park boosts run scoring by 5%

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Miles Mikolas.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-21	3.7	6	3	0	1	1	66	—
2026-07-11	4.0	4	0	1	0	0	59	—
2026-07-06	6.0	9	7	2	3	2	99	W
2026-06-29	7.0	9	6	0	3	2	97	L
2026-06-24	3.3	5	0	0	1	0	60	—

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