MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

July 11, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

1 game · 2 starters · Updated Jul 11, 11:48 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Two-game Saturday slate, so the pool is shallow — pick your spot carefully. Sproat is the cleaner side of this Brewers-Pirates matchup: projected 5.7 Ks over 5.6 innings with a 2.3 projected ER against Pittsburgh, and the neutral matchup grade is a quiet upgrade given his 5.13 season ERA suggests the underlying talent has been undercut by variance. Ashcraft projects fractionally better on Ks (5.8) and IP (5.6) with a lower projected ER at 2.7, but the unfavorable matchup and seven days of extended rest carry real rust risk — that flag softens what looks like a strong surface profile. Sproat is the more straightforward build here.

#1Brandon Sproat(RHP)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

GS
17
IP
79.0
W-L
3-4
ERA
5.13
WHIP
1.37
K/9
9.60
BB/9
4.20
K/BB
2.27

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.7
ER
2.3
H
5.1
HR
0.20
BB
2.2
QS%
41%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.8
Floor
3.1
Ceiling
26.5
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Brandon Sproat.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-07-054.05134092
2026-06-305.342271106W
2026-06-236.010010080W
2026-06-173.72426165
2026-06-106.04113168

#2Braxton Ashcraft(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers

GS
18
IP
108.3
W-L
9-3
ERA
3.24
WHIP
1.10
K/9
10.10
BB/9
2.10
K/BB
4.88

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.6
K
5.8
ER
2.7
H
5.4
HR
0.30
BB
1.3
QS%
38%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.6
Floor
3.0
Ceiling
26.2
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Braxton Ashcraft.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-07-045.76127194W
2026-06-296.05518397W
2026-06-246.051010086W
2026-06-176.04137093W
2026-06-125.05224090

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