MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

June 15, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

10 games · 18 starters · Updated Jun 15, 2:26 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Burns is the clearest arm on the board — 6.6 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against the Mets, high-confidence projection, and a 2.14 season ERA that backs the model. Wheeler matches the IP floor at 6.2 with a 1.7 projected ER against Miami, easily the best matchup grade of any starter today, though medium confidence keeps him a half-step behind Burns. Dustin May leads the slate in projected Ks at 6.7 across 6.2 innings, but a neutral matchup and 3.50 ERA temper expectations some. Gore's arsenal flag against Minnesota is worth noting — the model has him at just 1.8 projected ER in 5.1 innings despite a 4.18 season ERA.

#1Zack Wheeler(RHP)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Citizens Bank Park · Scheduled

GS: 9
IP: 56.7
W-L: 5-1
ERA: 2.22
WHIP: 0.85
K/9: 8.40
BB/9: 1.90
K/BB: 4.42

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.7
H: 5.0
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.9
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.9
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Zack Wheeler.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	6.0	6	1	0	5	1	96	—
2026-06-04	7.0	2	2	3	8	1	104	W
2026-05-29	6.0	5	4	1	4	4	90	L
2026-05-23	6.0	2	0	1	6	0	99	W
2026-05-17	7.0	4	0	1	8	0	98	W

#2Chase Burns(RHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

Great American Ball Park · Scheduled

GS: 13
IP: 75.7
W-L: 7-1
ERA: 2.14
WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 10.50
BB/9: 2.70
K/BB: 3.83

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 2.2
H: 5.4
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.6
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.4
Floor: 3.8
Ceiling: 33.0
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Chase Burns.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	5.3	6	2	2	7	0	105	—
2026-06-03	6.0	4	2	1	9	1	98	—
2026-05-26	5.3	4	2	2	8	1	90	W
2026-05-19	6.0	3	1	0	9	1	86	W
2026-05-14	6.0	2	0	2	7	0	95	W

#3Dustin May(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres

Busch Stadium · Scheduled

GS: 12
IP: 69.3
W-L: 4-5
ERA: 3.50
WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.00
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 3.44

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 6.2
K: 6.7
ER: 2.5
H: 5.6
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.8
QS%: 78%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 17.7
Floor: 3.7
Ceiling: 31.7
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Dustin May.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	6.0	4	0	1	6	0	101	W
2026-06-02	5.7	5	3	2	9	0	90	—
2026-05-27	7.0	2	1	0	9	0	87	L
2026-05-21	5.3	6	4	2	7	1	91	L
2026-05-15	6.0	4	3	4	3	0	91	—

#4J.T. Ginn(RHP)

Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS: 15
IP: 71.3
W-L: 4-3
ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.20
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 2.17

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.8
ER: 2.1
H: 5.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.2
QS%: 43%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.5
Floor: 3.2
Ceiling: 27.8
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for J.T. Ginn.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	5.7	8	5	3	5	1	97	W
2026-06-04	6.0	2	1	1	8	1	88	—
2026-05-30	6.0	4	0	3	4	0	80	W
2026-05-18	8.0	2	2	1	10	1	105	L
2026-05-13	6.0	9	0	1	3	0	95	W

#5Walbert Ureña(RHP)

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS: 4
IP: 11.3
W-L: 0-3
ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 2.21
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 7.90
K/BB: 1.30

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.5
ER: 2.4
H: 5.1
HR: 0.30
BB: 2.2
QS%: 41%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 14.2
Floor: 2.9
Ceiling: 25.5
Rest: 6d

Arizona Diamondbacks has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Walbert Ureña.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	5.0	3	0	5	7	0	107	W
2026-06-03	6.0	3	3	3	7	1	99	W
2026-05-29	6.0	5	1	3	5	1	92	—
2026-05-23	5.0	5	1	3	6	0	93	W
2026-05-18	6.0	4	0	2	4	0	92	—

#6MacKenzie Gore(RHP)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins

Globe Life Field · Scheduled

GS: 14
IP: 71.0
W-L: 4-5
ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 9.60
BB/9: 4.20
K/BB: 2.30

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.1
K: 5.2
ER: 1.8
H: 4.4
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 14.1
Floor: 2.9
Ceiling: 25.3
Rest: 5d

Minnesota Twins struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for MacKenzie Gore.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	5.0	8	2	3	6	0	87	—
2026-06-03	4.7	9	4	3	5	0	100	L
2026-05-29	6.3	4	0	1	3	0	99	W
2026-05-24	6.0	1	1	2	7	0	99	—
2026-05-12	8.0	3	1	1	5	1	95	W

#7Kai-Wei Teng(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS: 20
IP: 51.0
W-L: 3-5
ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 8.60
BB/9: 4.20
K/BB: 2.04

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.5
ER: 2.3
H: 4.7
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.4
Floor: 2.8
Ceiling: 24.0
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Kai-Wei Teng.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	4.0	7	5	3	5	0	93	L
2026-06-04	5.0	7	4	2	1	1	87	L
2026-05-29	5.0	3	3	4	7	2	91	—
2026-05-23	6.0	2	0	3	6	0	89	W
2026-05-16	5.0	2	0	4	7	0	76	W

#8Eric Lauer(RHP)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS: 3
IP: 16.3
W-L: 1-0
ERA: 2.75
WHIP: 0.86
K/9: 5.50
BB/9: 1.10
K/BB: 5.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 4.6
ER: 2.3
H: 4.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.3
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.2
Floor: 2.5
Ceiling: 21.9
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Eric Lauer.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	5.7	3	2	0	5	2	89	—
2026-06-02	4.7	5	2	1	1	1	70	—
2026-05-26	6.0	4	1	1	4	1	96	W
2026-05-10	5.0	5	6	2	4	3	80	L
2026-05-04	4.3	5	3	1	2	1	61	L

#9Troy Melton(RHP)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS: 4
IP: 25.7
W-L: 3-0
ERA: 2.81
WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 4.90
BB/9: 2.10
K/BB: 2.33

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 4.8
ER: 2.5
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.0
Floor: 2.5
Ceiling: 21.5
Rest: 6d

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Troy Melton.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	5.0	8	4	0	5	4	88	W
2026-06-03	8.0	4	2	2	5	1	94	W
2026-05-29	7.0	6	1	1	1	0	89	—
2026-05-24	5.7	2	1	3	3	0	79	W

#10Andrew Alvarez(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS: 7
IP: 24.3
W-L: 1-0
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.40
K/9: 9.60
BB/9: 4.10
K/BB: 2.36

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.1
H: 4.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.1
Floor: 2.3
Ceiling: 19.9
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andrew Alvarez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	4.0	5	2	5	4	0	90	—
2026-06-03	4.7	4	1	1	5	1	82	—
2026-05-29	3.0	5	3	2	1	0	74	—
2026-05-20	4.0	2	2	1	5	1	56	S
2026-05-15	3.0	3	2	1	5	0	48	H

#11Shota Imanaga(RHP)

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies

Wrigley Field · Scheduled

GS: 14
IP: 81.0
W-L: 4-6
ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 9.00
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 3.86

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.6
ER: 2.5
H: 4.5
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.8
Floor: 2.2
Ceiling: 19.4
Rest: 5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Shota Imanaga.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	5.0	2	0	2	7	0	90	—
2026-06-04	6.0	6	6	1	5	4	84	—
2026-05-29	5.3	5	5	1	2	3	75	L
2026-05-24	6.0	7	7	1	6	3	94	L
2026-05-18	4.3	9	8	3	2	2	79	L

#12Tobias Myers(RHP)

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Scheduled

GS: 20
IP: 33.3
W-L: 0-1
ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.00
BB/9: 1.90
K/BB: 3.71

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.2
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.6
Floor: 2.2
Ceiling: 19.0
Rest: 66d

Extended rest (66 days) — rust risk

Last 2 Starts

Recent starts for Tobias Myers.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-10	3.0	4	3	0	1	0	36	—
2026-03-26	3.0	1	1	0	1	1	39	H

#13Ryne Nelson(RHP)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS: 14
IP: 76.3
W-L: 2-5
ERA: 5.19
WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 6.70
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 2.59

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.3
ER: 2.5
H: 4.5
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.1
Floor: 2.1
Ceiling: 18.1
Rest: 5d

Los Angeles Angels has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Ryne Nelson.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	4.0	8	7	1	2	2	82	L
2026-06-04	7.0	5	2	2	3	0	94	—
2026-05-30	5.3	7	4	0	3	4	99	L
2026-05-24	8.0	6	1	3	3	0	103	W
2026-05-19	7.0	8	3	2	3	2	88	—

#14Ryan Gusto(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Scheduled

GS: 4
IP: 9.0
W-L: 0-1
ERA: 6.00
WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.00
BB/9: 2.00
K/BB: 4.50

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.7
ER: 2.2
H: 3.9
HR: 0.10
BB: 0.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.8
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.8
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Ryan Gusto.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	4.0	3	0	1	4	0	66	—

#15Michael Lorenzen(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field · Scheduled

GS: 15
IP: 65.7
W-L: 2-8
ERA: 7.54
WHIP: 1.89
K/9: 7.50
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 2.29

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 2.4
H: 4.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.3
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.2
Floor: 1.7
Ceiling: 14.7
Rest: 5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael Lorenzen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	5.0	2	1	2	7	0	84	—
2026-06-03	3.3	10	8	2	5	1	85	L
2026-05-29	3.7	5	3	2	2	0	70	—
2026-05-23	5.0	8	5	1	5	1	94	L
2026-05-17	4.7	9	6	3	5	2	101	L

#16Jared Jones(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS: 3
IP: 13.3
W-L: 1-0
ERA: 4.73
WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 9.50
BB/9: 3.40
K/BB: 2.80

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.5
H: 4.2
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.0
Floor: 1.7
Ceiling: 14.3
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 3 Starts

Recent starts for Jared Jones.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-10	4.0	3	2	1	4	0	75	—
2026-06-04	5.0	4	0	2	4	0	74	W
2026-05-29	4.3	7	5	2	6	2	77	—

#17Nick Martinez(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS: 13
IP: 77.7
W-L: 6-2
ERA: 2.43
WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 5.10
BB/9: 1.50
K/BB: 3.38

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.6
ER: 2.8
H: 4.3
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.2
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 12.9
Rest: 6d

Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has a 0.353 xwOBA vs RHP — tough matchup
Los Angeles Dodgers has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Nick Martinez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	7.0	6	3	0	2	0	73	W
2026-06-03	4.0	9	6	1	1	2	58	L
2026-05-29	7.0	8	2	0	5	0	88	W
2026-05-22	6.0	9	1	1	1	1	94	—
2026-05-16	6.0	5	0	1	4	0	77	—

#18Mitch Spence(RHP)

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS: 1
IP: 4.0
W-L: 0-0
ERA: 13.50
WHIP: 2.25
K/9: 6.80
BB/9: 11.20
K/BB: 0.60

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.7
ER: 2.4
H: 4.1
HR: 0.30
BB: 2.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.1
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 12.7
Rest: 58d

Extended rest (58 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Mitch Spence.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-18	4.0	4	6	5	3	1	84	—

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