Baseball / Starting Pitchers MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form
May 24, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers 3 games · 4 starters · Updated Jul 20, 4:37 AM ET
The Almanac's Take Thin four-game slate, but Cease is the clear anchor: 6.8 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against Pittsburgh, favorable matchup, 3.05 ERA on the season, dome game so no weather noise. That's a clean profile with high confidence across the board. Ober draws a favorable matchup too, but Fenway's 6% run-scoring bump and seven days of rust cut into the 5.4 projected Ks over 5.6 innings — usable, not a lock. Young is medium confidence with a neutral matchup and the same extended-rest flag. Keller faces Toronto in an unfavorable spot; 4.5 projected innings limits his ceiling regardless of the 1.8 projected ER.
Rogers Centre · Final
GS 17
IP 98.3
W-L 6-4
ERA 2.56
WHIP 1.13
K/9 13.50
BB/9 4.00
K/BB 3.36
Projection Matchup · favorable
IP 6.2
K 6.7
ER 2.1
H 5.3
HR 0.40
BB 2.4
QS% 80%
Win% 45%
DK pts 18.4
Floor 3.8
Ceiling 33.0
Rest 5d Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral low sample Last 5 Starts Recent starts for Dylan Cease. Date IP H ER BB K HR P Dec 2026-05-19 5.0 4 5 4 9 2 100 L 2026-05-13 7.0 3 1 3 9 0 99 — 2026-05-08 7.0 5 0 0 10 0 97 W 2026-05-02 7.0 7 3 1 7 1 106 W 2026-04-27 5.7 7 4 3 5 0 107 L
Fenway Park · Final
GS 14
IP 77.0
W-L 7-3
ERA 4.32
WHIP 1.19
K/9 6.80
BB/9 2.50
K/BB 2.76
Projection Matchup · neutral
IP 5.6
K 5.5
ER 2.4
H 5.2
HR 0.30
BB 1.2
QS% 40%
Win% 45%
DK pts 14.8
Floor 3.1
Ceiling 26.5
Rest 7d Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6% Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk low sample Last 5 Starts Recent starts for Bailey Ober. Date IP H ER BB K HR P Dec 2026-05-17 5.0 6 3 2 1 2 77 W 2026-05-12 9.0 2 0 0 7 0 89 W 2026-05-06 5.0 6 5 2 3 1 82 L 2026-04-30 6.0 4 1 2 2 1 88 W 2026-04-25 6.0 3 2 2 3 1 83 L
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final
GS 15
IP 84.3
W-L 7-2
ERA 3.74
WHIP 1.36
K/9 7.20
BB/9 3.30
K/BB 2.16
Projection Matchup · neutral
IP 5.1
K 4.9
ER 2.2
H 4.7
HR 0.40
BB 2.1
QS% 15%
Win% 45%
DK pts 12.6
Floor 2.6
Ceiling 22.6
Rest 7d Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk low sample Last 5 Starts Recent starts for Brandon Young. Date IP H ER BB K HR P Dec 2026-05-17 3.7 5 2 3 3 1 70 — 2026-05-11 5.3 3 2 3 5 1 97 — 2026-05-06 6.0 4 3 3 5 0 93 W 2026-04-30 4.0 10 7 2 2 2 82 L 2026-04-24 5.7 7 3 1 5 1 93 W
Rogers Centre · Final
GS 19
IP 103.3
W-L 6-7
ERA 5.14
WHIP 1.33
K/9 6.70
BB/9 3.00
K/BB 2.20
Projection Matchup · unfavorable
IP 4.5
K 4.4
ER 2.1
H 4.2
HR 0.20
BB 1.3
QS% 15%
Win% 45%
DK pts 11.2
Floor 2.3
Ceiling 20.1
Rest 5d Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral low sample Last 5 Starts Recent starts for Mitch Keller. Date IP H ER BB K HR P Dec 2026-05-19 5.7 4 4 1 3 1 83 — 2026-05-13 5.7 7 6 1 3 1 80 L 2026-05-07 6.0 4 2 2 4 1 84 W 2026-05-01 7.0 3 1 1 6 0 104 W 2026-04-25 5.0 5 3 2 6 0 93 —
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