MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 5, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 2 starters · Updated Jun 4, 9:55 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Two-game slate, both projections flagged low-confidence — take everything here with that caveat. Cabrera is the only arm worth considering: projected 6.2 IP, 6.2 Ks, and 1.3 ER against Cleveland in a matchup graded elite, with Progressive Field suppressing run scoring 9% and 42°F conditions flattening offense further. His 4.00 season ERA doesn't scream trust, but the environment does the work today. Buehler is a hard pass — unfavorable matchup, 4.88 ERA, projected just 4.5 IP and 4.9 Ks, and Fenway adds a 6% run-scoring boost that his current form can't absorb.

#1Edward Cabrera(RHP)

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians

Progressive Field · Final

GS: 10
IP: 54.0
W-L: 3-2
ERA: 4.00
WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.80
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 2.35

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.2
ER: 1.3
H: 4.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 3.4
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.7
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.5
Rest: 6d

Progressive Field suppresses run scoring by 9%
Cold conditions (42°F) suppress offense

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Edward Cabrera.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-30	6.0	1	0	1	5	0	80	W

#2Walker Buehler(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 57.7
W-L: 3-3
ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.60
BB/9: 3.10
K/BB: 2.45

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.9
ER: 2.4
H: 4.4
HR: 0.10
BB: 2.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.7
Floor: 2.2
Ceiling: 19.2
Rest: 6d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%
Cold conditions (47°F) suppress offense

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Walker Buehler.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-30	4.0	5	3	2	3	1	72	L

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